Friday, April 14, 2006

Best Hole Punch Post in the History of Today

I hate contrived stats. I don’t mean shooting up like a cow to inflate one’s home run totals. I hate statistics that sound like they mean something, but have obviously been manipulated for persuasive effect.

Like this gem from an article by ESPN’s Gene Wojciechowski:

Brett Favre is “40-4 at Lambeau when the temperature at kickoff is 34 degrees or lower.”
I don’t really get that. What’s Favre’s record at 35 degrees, you know? The stat says the Packers and Favre have been incredibly successful when the weather is cold, which you’d expect, but 40-4 is amazing. Still, don’t you feel manipulated?

When I read that sentence, the first thing that jumped out at me was: why did they pick 34 degrees instead of 32 degrees? Thirty-two at least means something-it’s the freezing point of water. That’s not really relevant to football, but at least it’s meaningful in everyday life. Favre must have won a couple games at 33 or 34 degrees and using 34 instead of 32 must make his record look even better-I can't think of any other possible explanation, but I don't have the numbers.

I’m not a meteorologist, but let’s assume here. How many games could Brett Favre have possibly played in Lambeau that started at 33 or 34 degrees? At worst, his record when it’s freezing at kickoff at home is like 36-4 or something. That’s still incredible. And at least that looks like it means something.

I stumbled across another example of this the other day on my social networking website of choice, the Facebook. (Is it just me, or is the term “social networking” pretty freaking creepy? Doesn’t that sound like a Nazi program?)

Anyway, as part of the Facebook, you can join various groups, which mostly revolve around your interests. I stumbled across one the other day called, “John Stockton Best White Guy Under 6’6 Ever.” I’ll give the creator and the four other members the benefit of the doubt and assume that they were trying to say John Stockton was the best white basketball player ever who was shorter than 6 feet, 6 inches. (But then, maybe they meant he was the best person.)

Why six-foot-six? The answer is obvious: Larry Bird. I am sure some people think Stockton was a better player than Bird, but those people are, without exception, idiots. However, Bird’s 6-9, so of course he’s not included under the six-six rule.

So then I was thinking, why didn’t they just say John Stockton is the best white player ever under six-foot-eight? 6-6, like 32 degrees, does sound somewhat relevant, since six inches is exactly half a foot. But another reason might be that they wanted to run and hide from Rick Barry, who was 6’7”. (Of course, I don’t expect Jazz fanboys to give Barry his due more than anyone else does.)

The thing is, putting any height stipulation on it (and I’ve ignored the huge race qualifier, which is a whole other issue) just minimizes the impact. Who cares who the best white player under six and a half feet was? You can talk about height in basketball in less obvious ways-why not call Stockton the best white point guard ever? (I don’t expect Bob Cousy to get his props on the Facebook, either.)

Besides, this group has a little more work to do. Have you seen the NBA logo? The best white player under 6’6” in NBA history was Jerry West.

4 comments:

David said...

i love subtle qualifiers that completely undermine statements.

i love you honey... in the fall

i'm guessing the statisticians could add an extra 12 games in the win column with the two degrees difference.

if it were freezing, maybe his record is like 24 and 20 or something.

Mike said...

Well, Pugs, all his games in freezing weather at home are a subset of his sub-34-degree games, so he can't have more than four losses, and his record really can't be that different. It's like they undermined themselves just to undermine themselves.

You're right, baseball broadcasts are the worst offenders for these kinds of statistics. But then, anyone who is trying to make the third hour of a team's ninetieth game of the season interesting deserves a lot of slack. I know I couldn't do it.

David said...

i think we disenfranchised calous.

that's too bad.

Mike said...

Ah, that's OK. I don't actually write so people can, you know, read it anyway.