Friday, February 23, 2007

Scottie Pippen

Woody Paige of the Denver Post (yes, that Woody Paige) wrote in today's paper that the Denver Nuggets should sign Scottie Pippen.

My thoughts? The move isn't a "slam dunk" in the basketball vernacular but would probably be a good call. Let's start with the cons, though. First, Pippen is 41 years old and may have nothing left. His last season was 2003-2004-a long time ago by NBA standards-and he put up pretty bad numbers in limited playing time. He was injured much of that year. I assume he's pretty healthy right now, but will that last? And what position would he play with the Nuggets? As a young man, he could play both guard spots and maybe even both forward positions, but I wonder how his speed and lateral quickness have held up. If they haven't, he's stuck at the three, where of course Carmelo Anthony gets the bulk of the minutes. Anthony's not really versatile enough to move to a different position, and Pippen's not enough of an offensive threat now that you can throw both out there and dictate the opposing matchups. Pippen, of course, is a part-timer now, but he might want to go to a team that could conceiveably use him more.

The pros? Plenty of those. (Bros.) Pippen can rebound, pass, defend, and score, and he's an incredibly smart player. He's got no ego-none of the bad kind, anyway-and it would be worth signing him just so Carmelo could watch him work every day. He also seems pretty realistic about this comeback, wanting only to make a contribution, not to be a star. It's possible he'll be one of those old guys who throws a fit if his comeback doesn't work out exactly how he wants it to (call it the Alonzo Mourning Factor), but I don't see that being a problem. Plus, Pippen was part of one of those weird shooting contests early in All-Star weekend, and he still looked right in his uniform. (It helped that it was a Bulls uni-though he needs to ditch the headband.)

Pippen has said he'd like to play for a warm-weather contender which, at least right now, eliminates the Nuggets on both counts. I'm not getting my hopes up. Of course, I felt the same way about Allen Iverson, and look how that turned out. What do you think?

Wednesday, February 14, 2007

The Top Dozen Pro Quarterbacks

With the NFL season over, it’s time for year two of my annual quarterback rankings. Actually, last year the list was of quarterbacks I’d take over Jake Plummer. Since such a list this year would be at least a novella, I’ve changed it to the top twelve quarterbacks.

This list is intended to be the best quarterbacks as of today and/or next season. Thus, it won’t correspond perfectly with, say, my list of the best young quarterbacks. Vince Young’s completion percentage, for example, will count against him more here. That said, some predictions are still involved. (For example, will Jake Delhomme and Ben Roethlisberger bounce back?)

The winners:

12. Philip Rivers, San Diego. Rivers may deserve a higher spot on this list. I’m just trying not to get too carried away. On the plus side, he’s on a fine team (if they have coaches next year) and has a fantastic arm. On the downside, he’s young and was nothing special in the playoffs. So there’s a chance he won’t be quite so good next year, though he’s got a very bright future.

11. Marc Bulger, St. Louis. Bulger didn’t make last year’s list due partly to injury, but had another spectacular statistical season this year. He’s tough, he’s accurate, and he rarely turns the ball over. One thing he doesn’t seem to do is lift his team to a lot of unlikely wins, though it’s not his fault the defense is so bad.

10. Donovan McNabb, Philadelphia. McNabb got off to a terrific start this season, though he tailed off a little before his injury. He’s taken some serious punishment to this point in his career and I wonder how he’ll hold up now that he’s on the wrong side of 30. Another point against him is that the Eagles never seem to miss a beat when he’s out, even behind good-but-flawed guys like Jeff Garcia and A.J. Feeley.

9. Vince Young, Tennessee. Young’s numbers are pathetic. He got off to an ugly start. And next season he’ll be just a second-year man on a team without a ton of talent. But Young has the fire to lead the Titans back into prominence. I’m happy for the Titans. They went all-out trying to win a Super Bowl for several years, but ended up destroying their roster and salary-cap situation. Fine with me-at least they tried, unlike some teams (cough Philadelphia! ahem). With Young, their road back will be a lot easier, though they still have a long way to go.

8. Brett Favre, Green Bay. Favre bounced back with a vengeance this year, throwing for twelve more feet than in his disastrous 2005 campaign. He also cut down on the picks, of course, which were the real problem. That said, he’s drifting farther and farther from elite status.

7. Jake Delhomme, Carolina. Everyone acts like Delhomme had some kind of miserable season. I didn’t see much of the Panthers this year, but his numbers don’t tell quite the same story. Besides, of course the Panthers were bad. Every other year they’re bad, and every other year they’re really good-sort of like the Steelers of the NFC. Next year, they’ll be good, and Jake will have a chance to show off his terrific postseason skills.

6. Carson Palmer, Cincinnati. Rarely am I as wrong on a quarterback as I was on Palmer, who I just knew would bomb in the NFL. He was just as aggressive and successful downfield this year as he was last year. That’s pretty amazing considering…well, if that injury he suffered last year had happened to my knee, I wouldn’t even have tried to walk yet. Now the Bengals need a defense so Palmer can get a shot in the clutch.

5. Drew Brees, New Orleans. Brees was nearly MVP and could have jumped as high as No. 2 on this list…but a playoff blowout will always knock you down a few spots. Brees was actually fine in the postseason when he wasn’t giving away safeties. He had an amazing year, especially throwing deep, and lifted the Saints far higher than anyone could have expected.

4. Matt Hasselbeck, Seattle. Hasselbeck’s one of my favorite players and has incredible accuracy when he’s on his game. Of course, he played hurt this year and his play suffered as a result. Like my No. 2 QB, I think he’ll bounce back next season.

3. Peyton Manning, Indianapolis. He still has the worst body language in the league, but most everything else is pretty good. He carries his team through every regular season and never misses a game.

Last year Manning didn’t make this list at all. I thought he didn’t have the makeup to win a Super Bowl, but I was obviously wrong. And no, he didn’t play great in the playoffs-at times, he was really bad. And he certainly didn’t deserve Super Bowl MVP. But a lot of Super Bowl-winning quarterbacks have had worse games, and I don’t hold it against them.

2. Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh. Roethlisberger’s incredibly talented-he’s got size, arm, and mobility, and though he’s younger than I am, he’s already got a Super Bowl ring. I think he’s too good not to bounce back. People talked like he was just a system QB his first two years, but that’s not true at all. Some of his statistics-like yards per attempt-were off the charts. He was all over the place this year, though that surely has a lot to do with his accident. I’m betting he’ll be much improved in 2007.

1. Tom Brady, New England. Still the class of the NFL, even though he lost to the Colts. Brady’s a true leader, but he’s a fine quarterback on passing skills alone. He plays well in practically every big game, and who else on this list can say that? Brady’s clearly an all-time great.

That said, it’d be nice if he had some competition. Maybe I’m too harsh on today’s players, but look at the league about ten years ago. You had guys like John Elway, Favre, Steve Young and, though I hate to admit it, Troy Aikman, all of whom played best when the stakes were high. You go back a few years and you had Jim Kelly. He obviously never won a Super Bowl, but he got there four times in a row, and how many quarterbacks today could do that? (The AFC Kelly played in was weak, but so is today's NFC.) This decade, you’ve basically got Brady and Kurt Warner as the passers who’d really scare you, and Warner was only that good for three years.

Maybe 2006 is just a bad year for the comparison, especially considering Roethlisberger’s struggles. And everyone should be excited about Vince Young. But I’m not sure. Am I comparing today’s QBs unfairly to some imagined Golden Age, or is this indicative of a larger trend? What do you think?

Sunday, February 4, 2007

Super Bowl recap

1. Congratulations to the Colts. To me, the biggest change they made in this year's postseason compared to past years was emphasizing the running game. Why they didn't do that with the Edge, I'll never know.

In their last playoff loss to the Patriots (early 2005), the Colts lost partly because of New England's defense, but the real key was the Pats' ability to control the clock, especially in the second half. In the AFC Championship two weeks ago, the Colts turned the table, and they rode the same formula to success today.

2. The key to any major football championship is surrendering a kickoff return for a touchdown to open the game.

3. What a start for the Bears. First, Devin Hester takes it to the house with a breathtaking return. (Okay, now seriously, of course you'd take the touchdown-but it's too bad it came so early, because Indy was so cautious kicking the rest of the way. Would two long returns that weren't touchdowns have been better?)

Indy got the touchdown to Wayne, but blew the PAT, which could have easily been a bigger deal late. So the Bears still caught a break. Then former C.U. ward power forward Alex Brown broke into Indy's backfield and forced a fumble that led to Muhsin Muhammed's touchdown and a 14-6 lead. Who knew that was the beginning of the end?

(Not me. But it's funny to look back on my notes from the game. The Bears got first-and-goal after Thomas Jones' 52-yard run. They called two runs, gained nothing, and then had to pass, scoring on that throw to Muhammed. I noted at the time that it wasn't much for play-calling. Little did I know what a sign it was of overly-conservative things to come.)

4. Thomas Jones played like Michael Pittman of the Buccaneers did four years ago. Both were busts for the Arizona Cardinals, but both played huge in the Super Bowl. Jones only had fifteen carries, though, which explains how the Colts held him to 112 yards.

5. Rex Grossman was as advertised. (I was wrong; everyone else was right.) I had a good debate with my brother about which of his fourth-quarter interceptions was worse. I favored the first one's unbelievable hangtime towards the sideline, but you can't take anything away from his second pick, a hot-air balloon deep down the middle into double coverage.

6. Quick stop for the ads (watch them online if you don't follow me). First, that Grand Theft Auto/Coca-Cola commercial was tremendous, if only because it reminded me of my old roommate Sam, who once played GTA on my PlayStation and asked how to pick up all the litter strewn on the streets. The second was the Sales Genie ad, which might have been the greatest commercial of all-time. I would hate to meet anyone who was actually impressed by it. Oh, and that GM ad about the yellow assembly-line machine that loses its job and throws itself off a bridge-that was freakin' disturbing.

7. Do I have to mention Peyton Manning? Yes? Then he shouldn't have been MVP-I thought both running backs made more big plays in the second half. I'm not at all surprised he got the MVP with a Colts victory. Of course, who really cares who got that award-either way, he finally got his ring.

8. Adam Vinatieri did miss and even worse, it came after an icing timeout. I hate those-they never work-but they'll obviously be all the rage again next year. Like the bad-snap PAT, though, it didn't end up mattering.

9. Oh, yeah-in the first quarter, Nantz pointed out that on one play, Bears defenders Danieal and Ricky Manning were in the game, and it must have reminded Peyton of playing with Eli and Cooper growing up. Um, I can think of a big reason why it wouldn't have, but more to the point, this is emblematic of one of the reasons I hate Manning. I am so sick of being force-fed him, especially anecdotes about his family. Here's an example-I'm a much bigger fan of Brett Favre or Tom Brady and honestly, I couldn't tell you if either one even has a brother. I'm definitely not going to get teary-eyed remembering Peyton's childhood while I'm watching the Super Bowl, you know?

The craziest part is that Cooper, before an injury ended his playing days, was a wide receiver. His brothers are two of the slowest players in the whole league! I don't get it.

10. For me, one of the weird things about watching a Colts game is seeing offensive coordinator Tom Moore. Okay, Peyton Manning handles a lot of the play-calling and all that. But the Colts have been, over the last several years, an incredibly productive offensive team.

Bear with me for a sec. When Shaq and Kobe were on the same team, you'd hear the announcers drone on about the Lakers even during a Bucks-Clippers game. When the Rams ruled the NFL world, you'd hear about them every time, say, a Dolphins receiver ran for several yards after a catch (as though advancing the football was a revolutionary concept). Now when analysts and experts talk about football, you always hear about Peyton Manning. "He's obviously the top quarterback in the league," they'll say-even though he's not.

My point is, the Colts don't suffer for attention. But you almost never hear about Tom Moore as one of the league's best coaches, even though he's putting up a heck of a track record. Why is that? I guess it's just because he's old, and I suppose I don't really care if he gets more pub-but it's just kind of weird. Usually people on winning teams get too much attention, not too little.

11. Again, I don't like the Colts, but they did win. I've got to say, though, that this Super Bowl reminded me a lot of last year's. For what it's worth, I don't think the Steelers and Colts rank very high among other champions, including recent teams like the Patriots or even the Rams and Ravens.

Favre returns

At the end of tonight's Super Bowl, there was a commercial for the NFL. It showed all the fans putting away their team gear, washing off their body paint, and saying goodbye to football. At the end, we saw Brett Favre, and the ad closed with something about how it's harder for some to say goodbye. (As you should know, Favre is coming back to play next season.)

Unlike many bloggers, I'm not part of the anti-Favre backlash of recent years. If he can still play-and he can, even if he's not an MVP candidate -and he wants to, why not? Good for him.

I did see the end of his last game against the Bears. There he was at the end, one of the most exciting and daring players I've seen, with a grey head of hair, choking up about how much he'd miss his teammates if he left...honestly, it was cool. It was probably my favorite part of the year.

Favre will surely go down as either the best or second-best quarterback in the game today. Plus, I can't deny admiring Favre's style. I've been more of a fan of the mobile, physical quarterback (think Favre, Elway, a young McNair, or V.Y.) who wears his heart on his sleeve than I am of the surgical precision of a Manning or Kurt Warner. Nothing against those guys-both of whom are champions now-but they're just not as fun to watch for me. I think another Super Bowl ring is a stretch, but I hope when Favre retires, he gets to go out on a high note.

Thursday, February 1, 2007

Super Bowl prediction

My Super Bowl prediction last year (go ’Hawks!) was made completely out of spite. Might as well keep the tradition alive.

Denver’s head coach (a.k.a. "the Mastermind") finally solved the puzzle; the Broncos did not lose to the Colts in this year’s playoffs. Nevertheless, I still loathe Indy’s NFL squad and predict the Bears will win. In fact, they will win 23-17.

I really have no idea who will win. It seems everyone thinks the Bears have no chance, though, which isn’t the case. Two reasons:

The Bears are better than advertised. The Bears are nearly a complete team. You already know about the defense and rookie Devin Hester, already the league’s best returner. The offensive line plays well whenever I see them, helping transform Thomas Jones, a famous bust, into a solid running back.

Yes, Rex Grossman is hot-and-cold. But everyone seems to be forgetting the “hot” part of that. He’s not on every week, but when he is, he throws a gorgeous deep ball and the Bears strike quickly. Grossman’s not the efficient passer to move the team down the field eight yards at a time, but the Bears don’t ask him to do that. Instead, they mix it up taking shots downfield, and they might need only one or two big passes to change the game. Will Grossman make those throws? I don’t know, but he certainly can.

Lovie Smith’s having a terrific year, too. So’s Tony Dungy, so it’s not like Chicago has a huge edge. But the biggest danger for a Super Bowl team is having the way-worse quarterback (like Chris Chandler) or the way-worse head coach (like Mike Martz), and I don’t think Chicago has either.

And the Colts are worse. Sorry to keep harping on this, but I’m still not quite sold on the Colts. Their first two playoff wins, though nice, came against teams with absolutely no idea what they were doing. Their win over the Patriots was very impressive, no question. But the Broncos had an impressive playoff win over the Patriots last year, too, and look where that got them.

Manning is better than I’ve ever given him credit for, and it’s possible the comeback over the Patriots will make him truly fearless. I doubt it, though. I’ve never seen anyone turn their career around on one game, no matter how important. Here’s my thing. Manning threw three picks in the first round, then threw for two more picks and for fewer yards than Steve McNair in the second. Why does everyone think Chicago has the only shaky quarterback? Manning’s been up and down, too. Another negative: the only player worse in big games than Peyton Manning is Marvin Harrison. And that defense isn’t worth all the pub they’ve been getting-they could barely slow the Patriots, the only real attack they’ve faced.

All I’m saying is, the Bears could win it.