Skip to main content

Best Hole Punch Post in the History of Today

I hate contrived stats. I don’t mean shooting up like a cow to inflate one’s home run totals. I hate statistics that sound like they mean something, but have obviously been manipulated for persuasive effect.

Like this gem from an article by ESPN’s Gene Wojciechowski:

Brett Favre is “40-4 at Lambeau when the temperature at kickoff is 34 degrees or lower.”
I don’t really get that. What’s Favre’s record at 35 degrees, you know? The stat says the Packers and Favre have been incredibly successful when the weather is cold, which you’d expect, but 40-4 is amazing. Still, don’t you feel manipulated?

When I read that sentence, the first thing that jumped out at me was: why did they pick 34 degrees instead of 32 degrees? Thirty-two at least means something-it’s the freezing point of water. That’s not really relevant to football, but at least it’s meaningful in everyday life. Favre must have won a couple games at 33 or 34 degrees and using 34 instead of 32 must make his record look even better-I can't think of any other possible explanation, but I don't have the numbers.

I’m not a meteorologist, but let’s assume here. How many games could Brett Favre have possibly played in Lambeau that started at 33 or 34 degrees? At worst, his record when it’s freezing at kickoff at home is like 36-4 or something. That’s still incredible. And at least that looks like it means something.

I stumbled across another example of this the other day on my social networking website of choice, the Facebook. (Is it just me, or is the term “social networking” pretty freaking creepy? Doesn’t that sound like a Nazi program?)

Anyway, as part of the Facebook, you can join various groups, which mostly revolve around your interests. I stumbled across one the other day called, “John Stockton Best White Guy Under 6’6 Ever.” I’ll give the creator and the four other members the benefit of the doubt and assume that they were trying to say John Stockton was the best white basketball player ever who was shorter than 6 feet, 6 inches. (But then, maybe they meant he was the best person.)

Why six-foot-six? The answer is obvious: Larry Bird. I am sure some people think Stockton was a better player than Bird, but those people are, without exception, idiots. However, Bird’s 6-9, so of course he’s not included under the six-six rule.

So then I was thinking, why didn’t they just say John Stockton is the best white player ever under six-foot-eight? 6-6, like 32 degrees, does sound somewhat relevant, since six inches is exactly half a foot. But another reason might be that they wanted to run and hide from Rick Barry, who was 6’7”. (Of course, I don’t expect Jazz fanboys to give Barry his due more than anyone else does.)

The thing is, putting any height stipulation on it (and I’ve ignored the huge race qualifier, which is a whole other issue) just minimizes the impact. Who cares who the best white player under six and a half feet was? You can talk about height in basketball in less obvious ways-why not call Stockton the best white point guard ever? (I don’t expect Bob Cousy to get his props on the Facebook, either.)

Besides, this group has a little more work to do. Have you seen the NBA logo? The best white player under 6’6” in NBA history was Jerry West.

Comments

David said…
i love subtle qualifiers that completely undermine statements.

i love you honey... in the fall

i'm guessing the statisticians could add an extra 12 games in the win column with the two degrees difference.

if it were freezing, maybe his record is like 24 and 20 or something.
Mike said…
Well, Pugs, all his games in freezing weather at home are a subset of his sub-34-degree games, so he can't have more than four losses, and his record really can't be that different. It's like they undermined themselves just to undermine themselves.

You're right, baseball broadcasts are the worst offenders for these kinds of statistics. But then, anyone who is trying to make the third hour of a team's ninetieth game of the season interesting deserves a lot of slack. I know I couldn't do it.
David said…
i think we disenfranchised calous.

that's too bad.
Mike said…
Ah, that's OK. I don't actually write so people can, you know, read it anyway.

Popular posts from this blog

The NFL hates you.

It's no joke. It seems like the more devoted of a fan you are, the less the league cares about your continued patronage. The best example is the league's blackout policy, a wonderful gift from the league to its teams granting them added market pressure to charge whatever ridiculous amount they want for tickets. If a game doesn't sell out, the home market doesn't get to watch it on TV. (Basically, a 75-mile radius around the stadium doesn't get to see the game on TV if all the tickets aren’t bought first.) The NFL, like a needy girlfriend, says, "Hey, fans, you like us? Prove it." Then the league asks us to prove it again and again, week after week, year after year. I live within 75 miles of what should be John Elway Stadium, but Broncos fans are pretty much shielded from this stuff, right? Not all of them. One of my friends is as supportive a fan as the NFL can have: he's a Broncos season ticket holder and an NFL Sunday Ticket subscriber. That mean...

An innocent mistake

Sorry. Here I am to catch up on a few things from the past week... 1. Vince Young will be on the cover of Madden 08. Good for him, I guess. Much is made of the Madden curse. It's not a self-fulfilling prophecy, but it almost feels like one. The real problem is that a) football is a very violent game, and b) Electronic Arts typically selects a cover athlete who's already very well-known. Unfortunately, the players are therefore often a year (Shaun Alexander) or more (Ray Lewis) off their actual prime, and old enough that a serious injury is more likely. Young is an up-and-comer, and to avoid a horrible pun let's just say he has less age than most of those guys. I think he'll be fine. 2. Of course, the reason EA went with such a youthful player is that superstar Chargers back LaDainian Tomlinson turned them down . Why? Money. No surprise that'd be a point of contention, considering how "generous" EA is with its regular employees . 3. That's why re...

Super Bowl XLVI revealed!

The Patriots and the Giants. Things just work out sometimes. * * * Two new teams, the England Patriots and the York Giants, will play for the NFL title in Super Bowl Forty-Six in two weeks. I can't wait. The matchup comes too late, and after too imperfect of a season, to make up for the wounds inflicted by the Giants in early 2008. The Patriots' undefeated season, a 16-0 masterpiece in which they set the league's single-season scoring record, broke at the hands of the upstart Giants in that year's Super Bowl. The way the Giants won made their win feel especially flukish...Eli Manning, known more for his entitled attitude than his athleticism (the only player to which his moves have ever been compared favorably is his brother Peyton), somehow scrambled free of a Patriot pass rush in the closing minutes, and lofted a pass down the middle of the field to David Tyree, who caught the key throw against the top of his helmet. Then a touchdown pass to Plexiglass provided the wi...