The West, plus a Finals prediction

Unlike the Eastern Conference, the West features good teams and players you’ve heard of.

(1) San Antonio Spurs vs. (8) Sacramento Kings. San Antonio is better at almost everything, though Spurs small forward Bruce Bowen is lining up against the one player who can match him cheapshot for cheapshot, Kings moodswingman Ron Artest.

Tim Duncan’s had sort of a rough year, and new acquisitions Michael Finley and Nick van Exel didn’t make the expected difference...yet the Spurs won 63 games, more than everyone but Detroit. I’m tempted to go with the sweep, considering San Antonio is better on the road (29-12) than Sac-town is at home (27-14), but there are just enough tiny question marks to persuade me otherwise. They’ll handle Sacramento in five games.

(2) Phoenix Suns vs. (7) Los Angeles Lakers. The Suns aren’t really ready to contend for the title, but this is a mismatch. If the Lakers have the very best player in this series, the Suns may possess the next twelve best. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Kobe score 50 in a game or two, especially against the swarming Phoenix D, but who says that would guarantee a win? Let’s give the Suns the series in five.

(4) Dallas Mavericks vs. (5) Memphis Grizzlies. You’ve no doubt heard that Dallas has the second-best record in the West, yet takes the fourth seed here because they didn’t win their division. That led to the Clippers and Grizzlies both wanting to lose down the stretch, forcing a playoff matchup with the Nuggets, against whom they’d have the home court.

I don't know how badly Memphis wanted to lose, but they would have been stupid to try, because nobody loses like the Clippers. Besides, Memphis was going to check out after the first round anyway. Against Dallas, they’ll be home after four games.

A lot of people say the NBA playoff format needs tinkering. I disagree, except that I'd prefer a return to five-game first rounds. The regular season should mean something? It does. Win your division, get a high seed. If there's any real problem with the playoff set-up, it's that there's a team in the East that's still playing despite a losing record, while a .500 team in the West has to watch from the courch. But since that 41-41 squad is Utah, I think we have a great system in place.

(3) Denver Nuggets vs. (6) Los Angeles Clippers. Congratulations to the Clippers on finding meaning in defeat. L.A. lost enough down the stretch to clinch homecourt for this series. That’s problematic for Denver, which is much better at home.

Let's break it down...

Center: Marcus Camby vs. Chris Kaman. Camby cooled off considerably after a hot start to the year but still beat Kaman's averages in scoring, rebounding, assists, blocks, and steals. (Did I forget anything?) As if you didn't already know he's better. Edge, Nuggets.

Power Forward: Kenyon Martin vs. Elton Brand. Kenyon Martin has battled injuries all year, and who knows how much he can play in this series? The Nuggets will need his defense against Brand, who was an early MVP candidate this year. But even if Martin was at 100%, I'd give the edge to the Clips.

Small Forward: Carmelo Anthony vs. Corey Maggette. Maggette missed fifty games this year, but returned in time for the season finale. However, he went to Duke, so how do you think he'll fare in the NBA playoff spotlight?

Anthony's developed into one of the league's most dangerous scorers in crunch time. It's time for him to have a breakout postseason.

Shooting Guard: Ruben Patterson vs. Cuttino Mobley. Not a strong point for either team. Patterson's been non-stop energy since joining the Nuggets, but is playing out out of position. Mobley's game is about as diverse as a GOP convention, but he can score. Still, his small edge in shooting doesn't offset Patterson's edge in everything else. Advantage to the Nuggets.

Point Guard: Andre Miller vs. Sam Cassell. Neither point is getting a GQ spread, though you've got to feel good for Andre finally having the edge in the looks department. Miller should come into this series with a lot of motivation, playing against both a former team and a point guard who owned him in the postseason two years ago. If Miller's game were any less generic, his feelings might even matter. Cassell will win this matchup.

Bench: Denver's better upfront with Francisco Elson and Reggie Evans, but that advantage will be largely negated if Martin can't stay on the floor and either one has to guard Brand for long stretches. The Clippers' key reserves are Vladimir Radmanovic and Shaun Livingston. If Earl Boykins can go, the Nuggets will have a sizeable bench advantage; else, it's more or less a stalemate.

Coaching: George Karl vs. Mike Dunleavy. Dunleavy has a winning postseason record, which is news to me, but Karl's not only the superior coach, he has a better command of his team.

Outlook: The Clippers are dangerous, but I expect Carmelo Anthony to have a huge series, and the Nuggets to win in six.

Championship Prediction:
It’s not going out on a limb to predict exactly what happened last year, but the Spurs and Pistons are still the class of their respective conferences and should meet in the Finals.

Their regular seasons were similar-Detroit won 64 games, San Antonio 63-but San Antonio overcame a lot to get their record, while Detroit overcame pretty much nothing, unless you count losing head coach/major distraction Larry Brown. The Spurs are a better team, and they will repeat as champions.