Thursday, August 24, 2006

Denver Broncos preview

I kind of wanted to wait to preview the Broncos, but it’s time to finish my AFC West series.

The Broncos’ offseason was marked by the departure of three important figures. Offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak left to become the head coach of the Houston Texans, where he’ll coach Mario Williams, the best defensive prospect in years…not. Longtime one-man pass rush Trevor Pryce and ace back Mike Anderson were let go in a bizarre salary cap measure right before the new labor deal was approved.

Yet each move makes at least some sense. With Kubiak, it’s not like the Broncos wanted him to leave, but they won’t miss him that much, either. If Rick Dennison can’t pick up the slack, Mike Shanahan surely can. Trevor Pryce once had amazing quickness for a defensive lineman, but injuries have led to two straight disappointing years. (Too bad, ’cause he’s a stud.) And Anderson rushed for more than a thousand yards…but he’s a running back, and he turns 33 next month.

The splashy move was the trade for first-round quarterback Jay Cutler. If one more person tells me Cutler should be starting this year, I am going to flip. Everyone I’ve talked to in person says he should start. And I guess, in theory, I’m fine with that-if he actually beats out Jake Plummer.

Plummer’s tremendous fourth-quarter comeback skills have vanished mysteriously, but he’s one of the best quarterbacks in the league. Yes, psychologists are baffled by his decision-making process, but do you really think a rookie will do better? Especially a rookie you hadn’t heard of six months ago?

It’s good to have someone who can, theoretically, push Plummer for the starting spot, but the Broncos hosted the conference championship last year. They were two wins from another Super Bowl trophy. It’s not time to rebuild.

Besides, the Broncos’ offense is very complicated. I don’t know if Cutler can figure out how to fake the handoff and then run to the other side of the field every single freaking play.

A disturbing trend is the front office's inability to solve problems quickly. For years and years the Broncos sought a quality third receiver, but never found one. For three straight years the Broncos have been thrashed in the playoffs by prolific passing offenses. So this year they dumped Pryce and cornerback Lenny Walls. Are they better against the pass now? I doubt it.

The offense should be as good as last year. Merging the Mike Anderson/Tatum Bell attack into a single Mike Bell is probably a step down, but the entire offense is built around running effectively, so I’m not worried. And I expect Plummer to be better than ever this year. He’s coming off a great year but a bad playoffs, and he’ll have Cutler looking over his should all year long. He’ll be motivated, and I think he’ll respond with a great season.

The defense is as questionable as ever. Every regular season the Broncos have tremendous statistics, but break apart in the postseason. I hate to say it, but when Peyton Manning lines up across from us, he sees his brothers.

Last year the Broncos held opponents to a pathetic 6.25 yards per pass attempt, fourth-best in the league. Against Pittsburgh, though, our DBs were running in sand. I’d love to say it’ll be different this year, but I have no reason to think that. We will have some continuity going for us, and that will help.

Outlook: Despite some questions, I fully expect the Broncos, if healthy, to repeat last year’s division title. They could be even better in the postseason-the AFC is wide-open this year. I can’t wait.

Wednesday, August 23, 2006

Broncos trade Lelie

The Broncos have finally traded Trashley Le…all right, that’s uncalled for. Rather, the Broncos have finally unloaded up-and-coming malcontent receiver Ashley Lelie in a three-team trade with Atlanta and Washington.

In the trade, the Broncos get…it’s a good deal, whatever we got. Lelie thought complaining about his role on a very good squad would make him irresistible to other NFL teams. Didn’t work out that way. After months of waiting, the Broncos got some draft picks, at least a third and a fourth-rounder.

Although I think I’ve already covered it, let me say again that Ashley Lelie is insane. With fines for missing camp and the $100,000 workout bonus he skipped out on, he cost himself somewhere in the area of half a million dollars this offseason just to get away from Denver.

Half a million dollars. Do you know how much that can buy? Me neither. But I’d sure love to find out.

Actually, it gets better. According to the Denver Post, the Broncos are trying to get some of Lelie’s signing bonus back, as well. Lelie is nuts, but it really bothers me when teams take back money they’ve already paid. (Besides, don't you get a signing bonus for signing? And didn't he sign?) In any event, the Post estimates Lelie’s holdout could cost him, in total, more than a million dollars.

Is it refreshing these days to see someone take a stand when it costs them a boatload of cash? Not really. Okay, it’s nice, but I have no idea why Lelie was so frustrated in Denver in the first place. I’m sure he wanted more passes, and Mike Shanahan definitely isn’t the easiest guy in the world to play for. In fact, if he was my boss, I would lose my mind. The only public story I’ve heard so far is that Lelie was unhappy with his role, but if that's all it was, didn’t he go way overboard?

Besides, he leaves the Broncos, where he was the number three receiver, for the Falcons, where he’ll once again be the number three receiver. Are Vick’s passes going to be more accurate or easier to catch than Plummer’s? What do you think? As ESPN’s Sunday night crew can sadly no longer inform us, the presence of Vick means Lelie won’t even be the fastest player in his own huddle! (And of course, they would have been talking about Vick during a thrilling matchup between AFC contenders…but I digress.)

I don’t think the Falcons are a better team than the Broncos, either, though they stack up in the inferior conference about as well as the Broncos do in the AFC. So he lost a cool mill to get the same role on a similar team. Well played.

As for the Broncos, the draft picks could play out a lot of different ways-read the Post article for more info. If we just get a 2007 3rd and a 2008 4th, that’s not very much. A healthy and productive Lelie would have been much more useful in the short term...but that wasn’t going to happen. I’m not sure we’ll get anything out of those picks, but I don’t fault the Broncos. I just don’t think there was much interest in Lelie in the first place. The Falcons can only hope it’s a wake-up call.

Tuesday, August 15, 2006

Kansas City

Last year the Chiefs finished second in the AFC West at 10-6, the best record not to make the postseason.

So they fired their coach. Not really. Dick Vermeil just retired. The Chiefs replaced him with Herman Edwards, late of the New York Jets. I want to mock Edwards, who feels like a downgrade from Vermeil. But in five years with the Jets he won two playoff games, or one more than the beloved Broncos in that span.

Edwards' performance has been up-and-down. In those five years, his team had double-digit wins twice and double-digit losses twice. It's hard to say how good he really is, because the Jets had some serious questions every year. It'll be the same with Kansas City.

Fantasy football alert! Larry Johnson is a consensus top fantasy player this year. Last year, he gained 2,093 yards from scrimmage. He's the added dimension that will get the Chiefs over the hump this year, right? Not really. Priest Holmes beat that total each of his first three years with K.C. (2001-2003).

I like to watch Gatorade X-Factor Dante Hall at this point of his career. The explosive Hall has the ability to blow any game open. Emphasis on ability, not on actually doing it. If he was feared during that four or five-game stretch a couple years ago, he isn't now. Hall caught more than three passes in a game only twice last year and returned one kick for a touchdown.

The offense is still in good hands with Trent Green, who finished second in passing yards last year. I don't get Green-when I watch him, he doesn't do anything too special, but at the end of the year his statistics are always beautiful. He's got to be pretty, you know, good. And it's not like he loads up on short passes, either. The only questions are his age and backups.

I am slightly concerned because someone who knows way more football than I do, Sports Illustrated's Dr. Z, questions the Chiefs' offensive line. But the Chiefs had the league's top-rated offense last year, so even with a moderate slide they'll be spectacular.

On paper, the defense looks improved, but we've heard that song before. That said, I am intrigued by new corners Ty Law and Lenny Walls. Law is getting old, but he was amazing in the playoffs a year and a half ago and Walls is...well, I like Walls, too.

They'd better be solid, because I don't fear the pass rush. The Chiefs were below-average against both the pass and run last year, but weren't that bad. Edwards is certainly more defensive-minded than Vermeil, but I'm not sure if that will translate into actual improvement or just a slower-tempo club.

So I'm picking the Chiefs to do about what they did last year, which is what I'm doing for all the AFC West teams, it seems. Right now, they're the Broncos' most dangerous competition for the division title. I think they'll finish in second, with around nine wins, but they could surprise.

Monday, August 14, 2006

Chargers preview

I just watched part of the Monday night game, and Minnesota...how can I put this. Look, I love the Broncos to death, but did you ever think those side stripes would become a fashion trend?

Anyway, today's team: the San Diego Chargers.

Last year: 9-7, third in the AFC West

What changed? The Chargers allowed quarterback Drew Brees, coming off a shoulder injury and consecutive productive seasons, to leave in free agency. His replacement is Philip Rivers, a third-year man who's thrown just thirty passes in his NFL career.

The pressure's on Rivers, obviously, to show he's worth the gamble. Brees was rarely spectacular, but he's consistent, accurate, and has a veteran's knack for avoiding bad plays. Actually, that's a silly thing to say-veteran NFL quarterbacks include guys like Jake Plummer, Brett Favre, and Aaron Brooks, who make mistakes like kids make Nikes.

Brees played well enough to give the Chargers a chance in just about every game. The team probably looked at Brees and thought he played just well enough to lose in big games. But since they've kept Marty Schottenheimer this long, you'd think that fit in great with the organization's overall strategy.

Anyway, Rivers is a fantastic prospect. I rated him the number two quarterback in his draft class, behind Ben Roethlisberger but certainly ahead of Eli Manning. He's more pocket passer than scrambler, but he's got enough arm to add a vertical dimension to the offensive attack. He does throw a little sidearm, but Rivers could chuck it underhand and still have a higher release point than Brees.

On offense, everyone loves LaDainian Tomlinson, the best back in the league for years now. If you're playing fantasy football, you're a dork. Also, you know the kind of damage Tomlinson can do to even the best defenses. Tomlinson will have a fantastic year even if Rivers sucks, but will that translate into wins?

The Chargers were one of three AFC West teams in the top ten in offensive yardage last year (everyone but Oakland, of course). But they were sixth in pass efficiency, a number that will surely drop. I think the Chargers will be middle-of-the-pack offensively this year.

Defense: San Diego led the league in defense against the run last year by yardage, but were 28th against the pass. This year, they're very young along the defensive line and at cornerback, so while they could improve, I think they'll give up some big games as well. With Schottenheimer at the helm, San Diego will be conservative and the defense will seem respectable enough, but don't be misled: this is a question mark.

Outlook: With the uncertainty at quarterback and on defense, the Chargers have taken a step backwards. Yes, this team has exceeded expectations the last few seasons, but Brees provided a lot of that grit. I think San Diego will compete with Oakland for the division cellar.

Thursday, August 10, 2006

Raiders' Super Bowl hopes

Welcome back! Believe it or not, in almost a year and a half, this is HPS' 100th post. That blows my mind, because it seems like every few weeks I apologize to you two for never writing, but I've written more than once a week.

The glorious NFL season is nearly upon us-the Broncos' preseason opener is tomorrow night. I've always wanted to write one of those huge Bill Simmons-type previews that talks about every team, but I'm too lazy to write it and you're too lazy to read it. Instead we'll start with a tour through the AFC West and see how we feel. Today's subject: the Oakland Raiders.

Last year: The Raiders finished with a 4-12 regular-season record. As a result, they did not appear in the playoffs.

The big change: The return of Art Shell as head coach. Shell led the Raiders to a 54-38 record from 1989 to 1994 (I should probably mention that I lifted that stat and almost all others from ESPN.com.). The former offensive lineman is a gigantic improvement over last year's coach, the laughable Norv Turner.

Shell's not just any former player-he's a Hall-of-Fame offensive lineman. That's important because any improvement in the play of Oakland's offensive line will be huge. On a positive note, the Oakland line has as much room to improve as any in the entire league.

They stockpile bad passers: The Raiders sure like NFC South washouts at quarterback, signing talented ex-Saint Aaron Brooks to replace the gashed Kerry Collins. Like Collins, Brooks has a strong arm and can throw the deep ball. Like Collins, he doesn't waste time obsessing over which team catches those deep passes. Brooks is mobile and was accurate in his early days, but has made little improvement as his career has gone on.

The offense: The Raiders nevertheless have to get something out of Brooks, as neither Andrew Walter nor the Marquis de Tuiasosopo is ready to contribute. (Tuiasosopo will clearly never become ready.) Brooks has a pretty solid supporting cast for a team that lost a dozen games-Randy Moss can still be the league's premier deep threat, and runner LaMont Jordan should have a bounce-back season if the passing attack can keep defenses guessing.

On the other hand, the line could be horrible again, and the dropoff from Moss to the team's No. 2 receiver is big, especially if Jerry Porter is traded. Expect inconsistency all season long.

The defense: The Raiders surrendered more than 2,000 yards rushing and a passer rating greater than 90 to opposing teams last year. In other words, at least the defense was consistent. Oakland picked former Texas safety Michael Huff in the draft, but they need help all over the field. And yes, Warren Sapp is still, technically, on the team.

Greatest power forward of all-time: will kick.

Outlook: 4-12 is really bad and the Raiders should win more games this year. But they have way too many question marks to compete for the playoffs. I expect six or seven wins from this team.

Wednesday, August 2, 2006

A champion?

Athletes like to say that a championship is one thing they can win that can never be taken away.

I have some questions about that. No, I’m not here to bury Floyd Landis. But one of the most vexing contentions of my childhood was the argument that John Elway wasn’t a great quarterback because he hadn’t won a championship. Yet a lot of Joe Montana’s backup fullbacks had. Clearly, not all champions are created equally.

So today I want to look at some recent winners and decide if their championships can be taken away.

1. Drew Bledsoe-Bledsoe won his ring with the 2001 Patriots in that beautiful upset over the Rams. Is he a champ?

Cons: Bledsoe’s team had a great season only after he got hurt and Tom Brady came in. In a lot of ways, the Patriots dynasty was born only because he wasn’t on the field.

Pros: Bledsoe had to come in to the second half of the AFC Championship against the Steelers just to put his team in the Super Bowl. (Then again, his counterpart was Kordell Stewart in a big game, so it’s not like he had to be Unitas or anything.) And do you remember the “Brady v. Bledsoe” starting controversy before the Super Bowl?

Verdict: Bledsoe’s championship is as legitimate as anyone’s, largely on the strength of his postseason appearance. I remember thinking Bledsoe would have been a smart pick to start that Super Bowl, which is probably why I’ve bent over backwards to praise Brady every chance I’ve had since. What an idiot I was.

2. Brian Griese-Won as a rookie on the ’98 Denver Broncos.

Cons: Griese barely played-I think he only appeared in the end of one game, a blowout over the Eagles. (In a sign of things to come, he was one-of-three with a pick.)

Pros: His team did win the title, and as far as I know he got a ring.

Verdict: This one stretches the very definition of “teamwork.” I mean, he practiced with the rest of the team all year, and while some roles are more important than others, each matters. And backups can, by their very presence, push starters to greater heights, though that would be absurd to suggest in this specific case.

That said, if anyone’s title doesn’t count, it’s Griese’s. The only waves he made were when his father, a member of the undefeated and unloveable ’72 Dolphins, admitted he was pulling for the Broncos to lose.

Looking back, it’s still hard to believe the Broncos going from Elway-who, despite his draft day demands, earned everything he got on the field-to Griese, who was handed a ring his first year and whose coddling has never been surpassed.

3. Anaheim Angels, 2003-Beat Barry Bonds in his only World Series appearance.

Cons: The sissies walked Bonds nearly every time he came to bat.

Pros: They had torrid hitting through the playoffs and lights-out relief pitching. And while there’s nothing American about the rule that you can just wuss out of pitching to someone, it’s just as fair as, say, steroids were in 2003.

Verdict: I still want to say this one doesn’t count. But it’s not the Angels’ fault that baseball’s rules created but hadn’t anticipated a hitter like Bonds. They’re champs.

4. Los Angeles Lakers, 2002

Pros: Annihilated the New Jersey Nets in four games.

Cons: Suspicious-at-best officiating in the West Finals against the Kings.

Verdict: Who cares? Did anyone watch the Lakers play the Nets that year?

I was going to cover Gary Payton, but I feel like I did that already. Even though he mostly just played defense and hit two big shots, well, that’s two big shots more than Bruce Bowen usually chips in, and no one questions him.

Let me also say that most college football championships are legit despite BCS controversy. Most of the time, the debate is over the No. 2 team-when CU got slightly jobbed a few years ago, they, Nebraska, and yes, Oregon would have all had a hard time against Miami. That said, of course LSU and USC were not both the best team in 2003.

I guess I don’t really have the heart to say these athlete’s performances are tainted that much. Can you think of any that should be taken away?