NFC Championship: Carolina at Seattle

Fabulous. Most years at least one conference championship winner is blatantly obvious, but as soon as I start trying to predict winners with the whole world as my witness, I honestly think that both games could go either way.

I feel that way especially about Sunday’s NFC Championship game, featuring the Carolina Panthers at the Seattle Seahawks (4:30 Mountain, FOX). Depending on how you look at it, both teams look better than their opponents.

You think momentum is critical? The Panthers won by a smaller margin last week than Seattle, yet were more in control of their game against a better team and on the road. Despite surrendering 21 points to Chicago's pathetic offense, Carolina basically kept the Bears at arm’s length and made mincemeat of the NFL’s No. 1 scoring defense. The Seahawks, meanwhile, took a while to get going in eking out a win over the Redskins.

Health? Star Seattle running back Shaun Alexander is returning from a concussion, and who knows how he’ll fare? But then again, the Panthers’ top two backs won’t be playing at all.

Do you consider regular season results a better indicator of a team’s true quality? Not only did Seattle post a better record (13-3 against Carolina’s 11-5), the Seahawks were better statistically and won their division-while Carolina did not.

Oh, you think the quarterbacks will make the difference. Matt Hasselbeck of Seattle has the clearly superior passing skills and carried Seattle’s offense himself Saturday. But Jake Delhomme has been the only passer ever to face Tom Brady in the playoffs and match him throw-for-throw in the only playoff game Delhomme has ever lost.

To me, the most important matchup of the game will be Seattle’s rushing offense against Carolina’s stout defense. With Delhomme’s experience advantage, Hasselbeck will be the quarterback in greater need of solid run support.

In the regular season, Seattle had the league’s third-ranked rushing offense (153.6 yards per game) and its highest single rusher in Alexander (1,880 yards). Likewise, Carolina’s run defense was fourth in the league in total rushing yards allowed (91.6) and yards per carry allowed (3.6).

Something must give, and the momentum favors Carolina, which has already shut down New York’s and Chicago’s running in the playoffs. And Seattle ran the ball poorly last week against Washington.

But I have two reasons to expect Seattle to bounce back from last week’s game. First is the success they had running the ball at home throughout the regular season. Alexander cracked 100 yards in seven of their eight home games.

The second is that the Seahawks were out-of-sync last week not because they faced an unblockable defense, but because it was their first meaningful action since Christmas Eve. While timing and rhythm are talked about more in the passing game, they’re at least as critical to effective running. Seattle’s run blocking seemed to get better as the game went on, and there’s no doubt the coaching staff has made improvement a top priority this week in practice.

Because of home field, their great regular season, and the injury to Panthers back DeShaun Foster, I’m going with the Seahawks. I know I'll never call a final score correctly, but: Seattle 24, Carolina 20.