Wild Card Weekend

It's become something of a tradition here at Hole Punch Sports to predict champions before the postseason begins. (Or, in the case of a sport like, say, college football, which apparently needs only a one-game postseason to determine its champion, right before that one game.)

Anyway, the NFL playoff games are starting in a few hours and I haven't guessed my Super Bowl winner yet. A couple reasons for this: first, I took the last two days off of work, so I didn't have as much time to write (heh heh). And second, I have no idea what's going to happen.

Last year was obvious, at least from my perspective: despite Pittsburgh's 15-1 mark, Peyton's 49 touchdown passes, and the fact that the NFC managed to field six playoff teams, it was abundantly clear that New England was going to win the Super Bowl. This year, there's no such overwhelming favorite.

Except Indy. Which I refuse to even entertain. You see, Indianapolis is the exact same team it's been the last few years. Yes, they almost went undefeated, but finished at 14-2. New England had the same record last year and Pittsburgh beat it with a 15-1 mark. In other words, if all those wins hadn't happened in a row, no one would even suggest Indy's season has been historic.

And they have the same problems they've always had-HPS has already covered Indy's abysmal run defense. (And in what seemed to me like an odd statistical fluke, despite their 14-2 record, Indy ranked just 16th in rushing yards and 12th in attempts. Does somebody still like running up the score? One thing I love about the NFL is that teams like that always, always get their comeuppance.)

We'll see. I could be letting my own overt hatred for the Colts shine through here. But I don't see them taking it. What the heck, here are the odds I give teams I think have a prayer:

Jacksonville: 1%. Better balanced than you think: 12th in scoring, 6th in points allowed. I love Byron Leftwich, though he hasn't yet been the NFL passer I thought he'd be. Too bad they won't beat the Patriots today.

Cincinnati: 1%. Carson Palmer has had an All-Pro year and man, was I wrong about him. See, I ignored his talents (big arm, accuracy) and focused on the weaknesses on his college resume (basically, that he wasn't all that great until his last six games or so). But the fact that he poured it on so late...well, that's one reason I think Vince Young can make it in the NFL (I'm sorry, but I can't stop thinking about that game!).

Carolina: 1%. One dimensional this year, but they're a team I respect in the playoffs. Yes, all of Tom Brady's Super Bowl wins were by three, but the Panthers had to be the biggest challenge.

Pittsburgh: 7%. My pick for the AFC's No. 2 seed (ahem). Pittsburgh, once again, excels in the run game (5th in O, 3rd in D) but does nothing special against or with the pass. However, they were playing with Tommy Maddox for a while. The ruthless Roethlisberger was fabulous when he was in-can he shake off last year's playoff struggles? I say yes.

Indianapolis: 15%. Okay, so I do give them a chance. I feel as bad for Tony Dungy as everyone else does right now. I feel crass evaluating the on-field ramifications, but suffice it to say I really don't think this helps the team in terms of bringing them together-I say it can only hurt. I don't really think Indy was good enough to win it all, anyway.

New England: 20%. I still believe in the defending champions, even though I probably shouldn't. Tom Brady is still the best player in football and Bill Belichick is the top coach. I am concerned with their 26th-ranked defense, but I have to rank them high on experience.

Seattle: 20%. I still don't know if they're better than everyone gives them credit for or, like Indy, just the same team they've always been. Probably the product of a weak NFC, but I figure their odds go up just because I think it's so likely they make the Super Bowl. And Matt Hasselbeck may finally be the quarterback everyone's been giving him credit for being for years. Let's not forget they have the league MVP, too. (That's a topic for another day, but let me say I'm thrilled Peyton didn't match Favre's three in a row.)

Denver: 35%. I am cautiously very optimistic. Maybe I shouldn't be this excited, but the playoff road looks very favorable for the Broncos. And Mike Shanahan's teams have faltered in recent years, but he can match wits in the postseason with anyone. (Now I don't agree with all his personnel calls, but the man can coach.)

One thing worried me about Denver's numbers. 5th in offense, 2nd in rushing, that's good. 15th in defense, 2nd in rush defense, and 29th in pass defense-that's terrifying, especially with Peyton, Brady, Palmer and Roethlisberger all waiting for their shot. But Denver's problem in that yardage-based area is not that they can't cover anyone, but that teams throw a low of passes. Denver only gives up 6.25 yards per attempt, which is extraordinary-4th in the league. And Champ Bailey's eight interceptions means we can actually force an occasional turnover for once.

So I am going with Denver, though I don't feel great about it.

Oh, and this weekend's picks:

Washington at Tampa Bay, 4:30 Eastern, ABC: Tampa Bay. I don't trust Chris Simms...but I don't like Mark Brunell, either.

Jacksonville at New England, 8 pm Eastern, ABC: New England. Jacksonville has a better record (12-4 to 10-6). In fact, their road record (6-2) is even better than New England's mark at home (5-3). Who cares, I'm taking the Pats.

Carolina at New York, 1 pm Eastern Sunday, FOX: Carolina. Why yes, I do have it out for the Manning family. Tiki Barber has been incredible, but Carolina has an enormous edge on defense.

Pittsburgh at Cincinnati, 4:30 pm Eastern, CBS: Toughest game to pick. Cincy's got a terrific offense. I really don't think you can say enough about Palmer. But I do think Cincy's 28th-ranked defense (wasn't Marvin Lewis a defensive coach?) means they're a year off. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh was 9th in scoring despite quarterback woes, and third in points allowed. Advantage, Steelers.