AFC Championship: Pittsburgh at Denver

Sunday’s AFC Championship Game (1 p.m. Mountain, CBS) between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Denver Broncos could, at first glance, hardly feature more similar squads.

And painted with broad strokes (both focus on running and defense) or small (both have offensive stars who weren’t drafted), the teams have a lot in common. And it’s not just styles, it’s statistics. Denver scored 24.7 points per game this year to Pittsburgh’s 24.3, and both allowed 16.1 points per contest.

Yet the game favors Denver. Why?

1. Offensive styles and matchups. You’re forgiven for thinking both teams run, run, and then run again. The Steelers surely run, but the runs are far more frequent and effective in the second half of games. It’s their passing game that helps build early leads.

Fortunately for the Broncos, their defensive strength is against the pass, despite deceiving defensive rankings.

The Broncos’ reputation as a run-focused squad is well-earned and accurate. While Pittsburgh’s defense is effective against any kind of play, they’ve jumped out to early leads in the first two playoff games and forced opponents to abandon the run. They won’t be able to do that in Denver, thanks to a more sizeable…

2. Home-field advantage. Like I’ve said before, home-field is more important to some teams than others, and Denver’s advantage is greater than most, thanks to the mile-high altitude. It allows the Broncos to control the tempo while opposing players are distracted by constant consultations with an oxygen mask. Meanwhile, the altitude helps enhance the sheer physicality of Denver’s rushing attack and gives the Broncos a chance at wearing down the Pittsburgh defenders.

To be fair, home field means less against Pittsburgh than it does against other teams. The Steelers are 8-2 on the road (including the postseason). But after last week’s dethroning of New England, Denver stands at a perfect 9-0 at Invesco Field.

3. Demeanor. Both teams faced tough opponents last week (it is the playoffs), but Pittsburgh’s victory was far tighter and more emotional. That could be good or bad, because while close games can warn of cracks in a team’s armor (think USC-Notre Dame), they can also give a team confidence to overcome future obstacles (think Patriots after the Tuck Rule game).

But Joey Porter’s whining following an enormously impressive victory-while completely understandable-suggests this Steelers team just might let their emotions run wild at crucial points in the contest. Meanwhile, the Broncos are a fearless bunch, highlighted by linebacker Ian Gold telling reporters Saturday night that he would really like to face the Colts, the team which had knocked out Denver two years in a row.

4. Coaching. Bill Cowher, meet Mike Shanahan. In other words, case closed.

Pittsburgh is a fast and physical team that can beat just about anyone. But not Denver Sunday. Broncos 30, Steelers 21.