For this weekend’s NFL playoff games, I have noticed that I’ve only picked teams that I actually plan on rooting for.
As every Hole Punch Sports reader surely knows, I have no intention of ever supporting Peyton Manning. Yet the Colts were nearly unstoppable this season, and I also love being right.
Nevertheless, the early game Sunday between the 11-5 Pittsburgh Steelers and 14-2 Indianapolis Colts (11 a.m. Mountain, CBS) features two teams that are more similar than you think.
Let us begin with the coaches. Colts coach Tony Dungy and Steelers coach Bill Cowher are both defensive-minded leaders considered among the league’s best. And both are still considered a step below the real elite who have won Super Bowls. Each has won his share of playoff contests, though neither has pulled off any memorable upsets or moments.
Next, the starting quarterbacks. Unlike Colts record-setting thrower Peyton Manning, Roethlisberger’s 40-yard dash is not best measured with a calendar. But both are big passers, capable from the pocket, and willing to go downfield. (Surprisingly, both season and career numbers say Roethlisberger is even better throwing the ball deep than Manning-his 14.2 yards per completion is almost two yards better than Manning’s mark this season.) And both started careers with doubts surrounding their postseason performances.
Both teams feature fantastic running backs. The Colts have Edgerrin James, who went over the 1,500-yard mark for the fourth time this year. The Steelers have undrafted up-and-comer Willie Parker, who gashes defenses with quick bursts all over the field that result in 4.7 yards per carry. (And let’s not forget short-yardage connoisseur Jerome Bettis.)
Each team has one of the league’s best receivers over the last few years, both of whom could rightly call themselves “underrated” when their press clippings are compared to the ink Randy Moss and T.O. get. The Colts’ Marvin Harrison may have dropped off a tiny amount from his prime, but still leads a formidable receiving corps. The toughness and versatility of Steelers wideout Hines Ward is known throughout the league even if his creativity in touchdown celebrations is not.
Each defense is led by a speedy pass rusher: Indianapolis’ Dwight Freeney (11 sacks, six forced fumbles) and Pittsburgh’s Joey Porter (10.5 sacks, four forced fumbles) have a knack for big plays and can bring down opposing quarterbacks at any time.
But Pittsburgh and Indianapolis assembled their corresponding puzzle pieces in what appear to be vastly different ways. Under Cowher, Pittsburgh has always been a conservative, defensive-minded squad whose offense will run on any down and at any distance. Indianapolis, on the other hand, is built entirely around offensive fireworks.
Pittsburgh dominates the run on offense and defense. Indianapolis has a passing attack almost without peer.
Yet the results look a lot alike. Despite missing Roethlisberger for four games, Pittsburgh was ninth in the league in scoring with 24.3 per game, while Indianapolis was second with 27.4. Pittsburgh tied for third in points allowed with 16.1-right behind the Colts, who gave up 15.4.
With teams this disparate yet evenly-matched, what can be the difference? Coaching, home-field, and special teams can. I don’t think either coach can be favored with great confidence. Indianapolis does have the home-field, which is important with their speed on the turf-or so everyone says, except that Pittsburgh will, coincidentally, also be playing on turf this weekend. In any event, the home crowd can only help. On special teams, neither team has been gangbusters this year, though Steelers swingman Antwaan Randle-El has the only return touchdowns for either team (two, coming on punts).
Other questions arise. Indianapolis hasn’t played a meaningful game in a while. Will they have any rhythm? If the Colts jump out to an early lead, can the Steelers stay balanced enough on offense to be effective? Will the game be a shootout, or are both defenses really this good? Is it possible for both Dungy and Cowher to find a way to lose?
This one is almost too close to call. But while my heart is with the Steelers, Indy was just a little better this season. Indianapolis 27, Pittsburgh 23.
3 comments:
I think the Steelers are a definite threat, and I hope I gave them sufficient credit, though you are of course right about Cowher. (Since Dungy's victory in this game would be less memorable/significant than Cowher's, I give him the best chance of actually recording the W.)
I think the best-case scenario would be for Parker to go down early, then to see Bettis turn back the clock and carry the team with 130 yards or so and give himself a fitting send-off to retirement.
Actually, I still like watching Bettis, probably now more than ever, mostly because he accepts and excels at his new role. I don't have a problem with a long-time star who just wants to play if he doesn't make a fool of himself or stab his teammates in the back. I just think he's planning on retiring, not saying he should.
As for Roethlisberger, that's an interesting question and one I'm a little surprised I didn't raise before. I would say he's yet to be stifled-with that defense and running game, I think you should play it the way the Steelers do, especially considering Ben's inexperience last year and injuries this year.
But he's pretty much proven at this point, and if the Steelers are still holding back on him next year (and if he's healthy), then we've got problems.
i like big ben.
the colts are like a bloated ox in the mire. they aren't going anywhere.
i say steelers, just cause it's better for denver.
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