New England at Denver

I can’t believe what I write sometimes.

Recently on Hole Punch Sports, I said that, “the playoff road looks very favorable for the Broncos.” However, my AFC predictions of Pittsburgh and New England victories last weekend were spot-on. So things went exactly like I said they would, but Denver is facing its toughest possible opponent for this playoff round…which isn’t “very favorable”.

Even though the Broncos stand as three-point favorites, a victory for them would feel like an upset. Why? I’m not really sure, but I think I’d call it “the Patriots won the last two Super Bowls.” As is well-documented, quarterback Tom Brady and head coach Bill Belichick have never lost a playoff game together. Another well-known fact is that this year’s 10-6 mark was dragged down by numerous injuries all over the field. The Patriots are in much better shape heading into Saturday’s game (6 p.m. Mountain, CBS).

Why can the Broncos hope to win?

1. Home-field advantage. Broncos coach Mike Shanahan has not won a playoff game since Jan. 31, 1999-coincidentally, right before Hall of Fame quarterback John Elway retired. But it’s no coincidence that each of the Broncos’ playoff losses since that day have come on the road.

Home-field is big for any franchise, but some teams have an even greater advantage. The weather in Green Bay. The fans in Kansas City. And the altitude in Denver. The Broncos know how to wear teams out in thin air, and proved it this season, winning all eight games at home.

2. Jake Plummer. Plummer certainly doesn’t give the Broncos nearly as much as Brady gives the Patriots. The Broncos’ passing offense is just middle-of-the-pack statistically, whereas Brady has almost single-handedly carried New England’s offense.

But Plummer gets something Brady doesn’t-a crack at the Patriots’ 31st-ranked pass defense. Belichick’s defenses always outperform their regular season numbers in the playoffs, but Plummer ripped the Patriots for huge gains in their regular season meeting (which the Broncos won 28-20).

Plummer’s known best now for his facial hair and newfound caution, but earned a reputation in Arizona for clutch play. He’s nowhere near Brady, of course, but doesn’t have to be, because…

3. The Broncos can run on anybody. Denver ran for more yards this year than any team except the Atlanta Falcons. Both Mike Anderson (1,014 yards) and Tatum Bell (921) ran for more yards than New England’s leading rusher, Corey Dillon. Anderson’s power wears down any defense-especially at altitude-and Bell’s breakaway speed forces opposing DBs to pay more attention to the run.

Meanwhile, New England has no such balance on offense. The Patriots’ run defense does rank eighth in the league, but their undersized defenders will wear down under the relentless onslaught.

4. Mike Shanahan. Or, in other words, New England’s customarily enormous head coaching edge is much smaller than it is over other teams.

In fact, you could argue that New England might not have an edge at all. While Shanahan has fallen somewhat out of favor in recent years, his and Belichick’s career paths are very similar. Both started as head coaches in terrible situations (Shanahan in Oakland, Belichick in Cleveland.) Both rebounded as coordinators for teams that went to the Super Bowl (Shanahan in San Fran., and Belichick in New England). And both won multiple Super Bowls behind quarterbacks who were the best in the game.

Just think about it: if Belichick runs off a few 10-6s and 9-7s in the next few years-certainly possible on a team with some aging defensive playmakers and the built-in disadvantage of always drafting low-will Patriots fans talk about him the same way Broncos fans talk of Shanahan now?

The real coaching question is whether Gary Kubiak’s interviews will distract him from game-planning for the Patriots. Two reasons that won’t happen: first, Kubiak’s not the kind of coaching climber who would jeopardize his current team’s chances; and second, if Shanahan thinks there’s any evidence of a drop-off, he can take over the offense himself. Shanahan knows this is his chance to shut up critics-for now-and the fiery coach won’t let anything stand in his way.

5. Defense. For the last two years, the Broncos had an impressive regular-season defense that completely fell apart against Indianapolis. That won’t happen again (at least until next week).

For starters, the Broncos finally seem to have solved their pass defense woes. And second, they match up very well with the Patriots. The Broncos are slightly vulnerable against the run, but New England can’t and won’t run enough to keep the defense honest. Meanwhile, New England’s offensive gameplan-which will almost certainly be to put the ball in Tom Brady’s hands-plays to Denver’s strength.

Tom Brady can’t really be stopped, but the Broncos can make the Patriots one-dimensional, which is almost always instant death in the playoffs.

The list of reasons for picking New England is much shorter:

1. The history of Tom Brady and Bill Belichick. Yes, the Patriots decided a few years ago to stop losing, and it’s paid off. Brady and Belichick have reached historic greatness in the last few years, and both have already punched their tickets to the Hall of Fame.

But eventually the pair will lose. And while I’m not sure the Patriots’ dynastic run is finished, I do think the next Super Bowl win is on hold for at least another year. Broncos 23, Patriots 21.