Without getting into any details, today sucked, and so it’s fitting that the Lakers took down the Nuggets in Game One tonight.
What’s sad, but also reassuring, is that the Nuggets put themselves in position to win the game. They had a big lead in the first quarter, which is almost annoying at this point, because unless you’re playing the Hornets you always lose a lead you build that early. But they also had some good leads in the fourth quarter. If you’re not familiar with this rule, which I think I’ve heard the Sports Guy credit to Houston Rockets GM Daryl Morey, it’ll totally change the way you watch games. The quote is from Michael Lewis’ awesome profile of Shane Battier:
One statistical rule of thumb in basketball is that a team leading by more points than there are minutes left near the end of the game has an 80 percent chance of winning. If your team is down by more than 6 points halfway through the final quarter, and you’re anxious to beat the traffic, you can leave knowing that there is slightly less than a 20 percent chance you’ll miss a victory; on the other hand, if you miss a victory, it will have been an improbable and therefore sensational one.
So remember when Carmelo Anthony got caught by the sideline and called that timeout, but then right after the break caught a pass from Nene for a dunk? That gave the Nuggets a seven-point lead with 7:28 left, a lead they kept past when the clock ticked under seven minutes remaining. The Nuggets also led by six inside of six minutes and five inside of five. And, oh yeah, Chauncey Billups' three gave us a two-point lead with 1:38 remaining.
So what happened? Well, I refuse to turn this blog into a bunch of whining about the officiating, so I guess I can’t explain it. Also, the Lakers were getting the ball to Kobe Bryant better than the Nuggets were to Chauncey or Carmelo in the closing minutes. (Thankfully, both 7 and 15 played well when given opportunities down the stretch.) Anthony Carter’s inbounds pass that got stolen was absolutely atrocious, too. I think the Nuggets will be a lot better off on offense when J.R. Smith gets back on track, though. While he did hit one big three, he usually provides a bigger lift at the start of the fourth quarter.
My other concern is Denver’s first-half defense on Bryant. Way too many times he was allowed to get the ball down low and simply elevate for an easy shot. I don’t know how to prevent that but the Nuggets have to find a way or this is going to be a very short series.
6 comments:
Tough loss to swallow.
Melo played out of his mind and proved he is a superstar in the league. Maybe after a performance like this the NBA will reconsider the Finals match up...
Sorry mike but i had to go there.
Disappointing. Yes. But there was some hope there. To be honest I thought the Lakers truly showed up to play and were giving it their all. (I hope I'm right about this) If that's the Laker's best and I percieved we were dominating them most of the game and while making a stupid mistakes and missing a fair number of good shots, like the free ones you get from the line, then we still have a good chance against this team.
The Lakers did slow us down by gaurding the passing lanes for Chauncey, from what I saw he didn't have a lot of places to go. By the way, why did we take out Anderson to let Carter inbound?
I agree about 'Melo, who is playing great the last few games.
I don't know if that was quite L.A.'s "best", but it's pretty close to what I've seen from them even when they are playing well. That Derek Fisher three before halftime was awful, even I'll admit that's the one shot Fisher is going to make. I couldn't believe Chauncey missed three from the stripe like that, so uncharacteristic.
Yeah, I don't get what happened on that inbounds play, but to be fair L.A. was playing pretty good D.
A huge disappointment -we had every opportunity to steal home court advantage and came up just a little short. My thoughts:
(1) Melo was brilliant and proved he can come up huge on the huge stage.
(2) Chauncey struggled, and the fact that we were still in it with him playing poorly speaks volumes about this team.
(3) We HAVE to be better from the foul line. if we had hit just half of the free thows we missed, our free throw percentage still would have been below 80% and we would have won.
(4) We HAVE to be better on the glass. Period.
(5) Carter's in-bounds pass was reckless. We still had a timeout remaining, and should have used it to swap him out for Andersen or K-Mart or anyone else who can see over the dashboard while driving.
(6) Lamar Odom proved once again that he is only in the league because he is (1) left-handed and (2) ganglier than a praying mantis.
I'm afraid the league has foreordained the outcome yet again . . . but we still have a chance if we can settle into control in Game 2.
That was a great game...until the last 5 minutes that is.
Melo was almost unstoppable and his defense was terrific and has gone underappreciated this year.
I agree with John on the free throws. I don't think I've
EVER seen Billups miss three freebies in a row, so I feel confident that we will shoot a much high percentage from the stripe in the next game. Also, J.R. was a non-factor in the game and he has been our third highest scorer in the playoffs, so I expect him to play much better in the next game as well. All in all, I think it's encouraging that some of our key players didn't contribute and we still outplayeded the Lakers. Without K-Mart fouling Kobe and AC throwing the ball away, we probably still would've won the game. I think the Nuggets will come back tomorrow and play really hard and get a win.
That being said, it really sucks to give a game away to the Lakers like that, especially in game one.
I liked your Dork Elvis reference. Ever since you sent me that article on Battier I watch the lead and the clock like a hawk in every single NBA game that I watch with that stat in mind.
John, agreed on points one and two: I also think we can rely on Chauncey not to have a poor game again any time soon.
Your point five is hilarious because Carter was subbed in for Andersen. Yes, really.
Point six would make more sense if this was baseball, but it still seems to be true: how is Odom still so lacking in many basketball skills?
Blaine, big picture I think you're right. Assuming all our guys can get it clicking again I think we can give the Lakers a lot more than we have.
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