Thursday, June 1, 2006

Conference Finals update

This NBA playoffs, no series lead is safe. The Los Angeles Lakers blew a 3-1 lead in the first round against the Phoenix Suns. The Dallas Mavericks did everything they could to waste their 3-1 advantage over the Spurs. I’m tempted to say the referees are the only reason the Mavericks won that series. I’m not sure if you saw it, but late in Game Seven, a Mavericks employee handed Dirk Nowitzki the wrong flavor of Gatorade during a timeout, and Dirk was awarded three free throws.

(That said, I can understand why the league would want teams from big markets, like the Lakers or Knicks, to win. I can’t really see why they’d want to do Mark Cuban any favors.)

Anyway, the Heat jumped out to a 3-1 lead over the Detroit Pistons in the Eastern Conference Finals, but lost to the Pistons last night. Can the Heat avoid falling into the same trap?

I ask because the Heat are my only hope for caring about this year’s Finals. The Pistons are pretty cocky for a team that won only one title-and that came under fluky circumstances. (Had Kobe simply fed Shaq more, they’d have won-but then, Kobe’s ego running away from him isn’t really a “fluke”, is it?)

Basketball’s not like other sports, where one title can cement you as a legend. Truly dominant teams always repeat or win multiple titles over a few years. Need proof?

If anything, it’s kind of hard not to repeat. (While looking at NBA.com, I found a webpage that might be my new favorite, at least for any organization's official website. Apparently the league hasn’t had a champion for a few years.)

Unlike the Pistons, the Heat are an attractive squad for all hoops fans. In Shaq and Dwyane Wade they have both a first-ballot Hall of Famer and a potential legend in the making. I didn’t believe in the Heat at the start of the playoffs, mostly because they lost to Detroit last year and seemed to regress this season. Now Shaq has rounded himself into playing shape and Wade has continued to grow as the league’s best crunch-time assassin. Plus, while we were all sick of the Shaq and Kobe feud about five years ago, it would be great to see O’Neal and his younger but far more mature sidekick bring a title to Miami.

* * *

Meanwhile, the Western Conference Finals are locked in a 2-2 tie. But they come second in this column because I expect the West to field this year’s second-place finisher. The Dallas Mavericks and Phoenix Suns in the West are both teams where toughness is a huge question mark. The Suns score so many easy baskets it almost makes a mockery of the sport. However, only a few select players cross halfcourt and attempt to stop the other team from scoring.

Dallas has improved defensively under former Spur Avery Johnson, but I can’t see them slowing down Miami or Detroit. Too much of Dallas’ success still rides on making jump shots.

One more thing caught my eye after Game Four. Nowitzki had had a bad game and was talking to the media afterwards. All he was saying was a bunch of meaningless clichés about how he and the team needed to bounce back after a tough loss. Now I know the post-game interview is not the most engaging process in the world. But it occurred to me that maybe Nowitzki doesn’t have any answers for when he doesn’t play well. He’s not the only player who struggles to create something when his shot’s not falling-Kobe Bryant comes to mind-but I think that's why he’ll always be regarded as a supremely talented player, never a transcendent one.

5 comments:

Mike said...

Coincides perfectly...sounds vaguely like my Broncos Super Bowl prediction.

2002 was the last time I didn't watch an NBA Finals, mostly because of how poorly officiated the Lakers-Kings West Finals had been. But if it's Detroit-Phoenix I could easily see myself passing just because I wouldn't like the matchup. Life is just too short.

Raja Bell's a tool, and his flopping calls to mind a young Vlade Divac. (Yes, I went there.) I wonder who gets the call if Raja flops while guarding Jirk?

Mike said...

Ouch. Dirk showed me. That's why I had him second in the MVP race!

Mike said...

Dropping a U.S. Grant...I like it.

Anyway, I'm not sure I can just brush aside Dirk's performance that easily. Even if 50 against the Suns is like 35 against a real team, 35 in a big conference finals game is a pretty big bounce-back in my book. I'm not saying he's on Tim Duncan's level or anything, but that was impressive.

Tonight is a tough, tough call. It's basically a must-win for both teams. I am quite worried Detroit will take it.

Mike said...

Well, I didn't watch the game either, if that's what you mean.

I was thinking the same thing the other day about West vs. East...for all the talk the last few years that the East is weak, the West isn't much deeper when you consider real title contenders (which, in my mind, doesn't include the Suns or Mavericks). Really, the West only has the Spurs these days. The West is deeper in a way-its, say, top eight are better than the East's top eight-but it's no longer the exclusive home of the great teams.

It also means the Nuggets should be able to move up fast...if Carmelo can avoid turning into the next KG.

Mike said...

Did your friend have any reasons for saying that?

The conferences do go in cycles, which is why I'm amused when, say, a 40-42 team makes the playoffs and everyone decides the whole system needs to be overhauled. It's not like a more deserving 41-41 team from the other conference was going to win the championship anyway...and even if they could, would we really want that?

As for LeBron, I feel compelled to point out that I don't like the LBJ moniker. Or even "King James", probably just because I've heard it too much. As with MJ (a.k.a. "His Airness"), nicknames for LeBron always feel forced. Anyway.

You ask a good question. The Cavaliers ought to have a bright future-they were already the No. 4 seed this year (a legit 4, as opposed to the Nuggets' formulaic 3) and in Shaq and Jason Kidd, two of the teams ahead of them have rapidly-aging stars. If the Pistons lose this series, will they try to stop their regression with some moves this offseason or will they continue to play the same five guys into eternity?

Perhaps if they'd played Darko a little (at least in the regular season) they could have at least traded him for something more valuable...but I don't see a lot of things they can do without shaking up their core. Then again, they won 64 games this year. Normally I'd be interested to see what a team like this will do, but in Detroit's specific case I think they'll just stand pat.

So, an opening for the Cavs? Sure. But with their mismatched parts, I'm not sure they're in any better shape than, say, the Wizards, though of course they did send Gilbert & Co. home this year.