Two surprising teams, both with the second-best record in their conference, advanced to the NBA Finals (game one starts tonight at 6 p.m. Mountain on ABC). Dallas has shuffled its lineups a bit throughout the postseason, so these matchups are based off of who started in the last game. Here’s why I think Miami will win:
Point Guard: Devin Harris, Dallas vs. Jason Williams, Miami. On one hand, we have the young player who’s still developing and on the other, a veteran who will never grow up. Harris has been a pleasant surprise in the playoffs, shooting over fifty percent from the field, but still makes some of the mistakes you’d expect from a player his age. Besides, Dallas really doesn’t ask much of him. Williams is as streaky as always, but when he’s on, he’s incredible-see Miami’s last game against Detroit for details. Edge: Miami.
Shooting Guard: Jason Terry, Dallas vs. Dwyane Wade, Miami. This matchup is closer than you think-oh, who am I kidding? No, it’s not. Terry’s a scorer who can spell Harris at the point, but Wade outclasses him in nearly every respect. Plus, Wade’s shoe deal in with Converse, so I’ll love him until the day I die. Edge: Miami.
Small Forward: Josh Howard, Dallas vs. Antoine Walker, Miami. Walker can do a little bit of everything, but Howard does even more. Walker’s main offensive contribution is launching threes at this point, though he can still go to the hole if they’re not falling. Dallas needs Howard to play huge to make it a series. Edge: Dallas.
Power Forward: Dirk Nowitzki, Dallas vs. Udonis Haslem, Miami. Haslem insulted the so-called integrity of the game this postseason when he threw his mouthguard at a referee in the first round and earned himself a one-game suspension. It wasn’t a real shock, considering that time in college when he threw a basketball into the stands.
Nowitzki’s been anointed the breakout star of the playoffs and received nearly unprecedented favoritism from the referees. My snarkiness aside, he’s Dallas’ leader and should own this matchup. Edge: Dallas.
Center: DeSagana Diop, Dallas vs. Shaquille O’Neal, Miami. Diop has made a name for himself in this postseason somehow, but I’m a little underwhelmed by his 3.1 points per game. To be fair, his contributions have been more of the defense and rebounding variety. Shaq’s a three-time Finals MVP. While he clearly got his legs back at the end of the season, he didn’t play particularly well early in the playoffs, at least by his standards. Nonetheless, Diop will need speedy double-team from all directions help to have a prayer. Edge: Miami.
Bench: Jerry Stackhouse, Erick Dampier, Adrian Griffin, Keith Van Horn, Dallas vs. James Posey, Gary Payton, Alonzo Mourning, Miami. Stackhouse is not a typical bench player: he’s fourth on Dallas in minutes during the playoffs. While he’s not close to a star anymore, he’ll keep Wade from catching a break defensively. Shaq’s shown particular public distaste for Dampier, who’s never been close to good enough to make O’Neal eat his words.
Posey and Payton play plenty of minutes, but neither contributes much more than jump shooting on offense. Both can still play tough defense in spurts. Mourning still fancies himself a defensive enforcer but is mostly foul-trouble insurance for Shaq at this point. Who can tell which bench will play better, but Dallas’ backups at least give the team more versatility. Edge: Dallas.
Coaching: Avery Johnson, Dallas vs. Pat Riley, Miami. Johnson’s probably had a better year, but so what? Riley’s a legend. Besides, getting his talented-but-flawed Miami team to the Finals is more than anyone could have expected. Edge: Miami.
Outlook: As Can Dallas slow down Shaq? Not a chance. Miami’s got deeper perimeter defense than Dallas is used to seeing, and I think Wade will challenge Shaq for Finals MVP. Miami in six.
2 comments:
Miami in six, huh? Did you see the game last night?
My favorite part of the night was when the sideline reporter said that Shaq had called him "Erica" and suggested he could be a star in the WNBA. I love how Dampier has no response to that. I think my favorite is trying to picture (since I didn't see) the "I played like Erick Dampier" line after Shaq had a rough night once. I loved it.
In all honesty Bradley was 7'6" or whatever but didn't have much of an NBA build-whereas Dampier really has no excuse for himself.
Wade is relentless and amazing to watch. I was also amazed watching Shaq at the stripe. Wade did look pretty worn down by the end of the third (when he had the dunk, then got fouled going for another one)-hopefully he can get some more help in game two.
Post a Comment