NCAA Tournament Preview, or Why Would I Help You?

March Madness, of course, was the topic of Hole Punch Sports’ first post a year ago.

Every bracket contest I’m competing in includes at least some readers of this blog. I’m really tempted to lie a lot and try to throw everyone off. I guess you could say that’s what I did last year, when I picked two teams that couldn't escape the opening weekend to make the Final Four.

This year, I’m going to write more of a general preview than any real specific regional predictions (except for the national champion). I am either doing to this to avoid giving up my research edge, or perhaps to avoid being wrong in so public a manner. Plus this gives all of you a chance to experiment and learn. As the old NFL commercials said: You make the call!

I should point out that on ESPN.com’s tournament challenge last year, I started out 13-0 and was ranked No. 1 in the world, at least with one of my five charts (to be fair, I think I was tied for first with literally thousands of other brackets). So if I can give any honest and practical advice, it would be to fill out a lot of brackets, sort of like how Mel Kiper, Jr. makes endless mock drafts.

All right, on to the regions:

Atlanta: Duke (No. 1 seed), thankfully, won't win it all. Why? Because this Duke squad is exactly the same as every other Duke team of recent vintage. Let’s see.

No depth. Check. This is the Blue Devils' annual Achilles heel. Actually, Duke has a decent seven players averaging twenty minutes per game, but at least half of those guys aren’t doing anything when they’re on the floor. And while Duke is clearly one of the nation’s top teams, the squad has faded down the stretch-never a good sign come tourney time.

One-dimensional shooter. Check. I mentioned this last year. Following in the footsteps of Trajan Langdon, J.J. Redick is widely hailed as the best shooter in the land. What the heck, he might even actually be that this year. But whatever you’ve heard about added dimensions to his game is completely overblown. Still no passing, rebounding or defense. I’m no basketball coach-oh, wait, I am-but those seem kind of important. He’s a very good, very valuable player on a team perfect for him, but the best basketball player in the country? That’s ridiculous.

Ignored frontcourt. And check. How can I say Shelden Williams is ignored? With his talents, the Blue Devils could rely on him more than they do. In Duke’s first loss, to Georgetown, Williams shot just 2-for-8.

Of course, there are other teams. Syracuse (5) made an awesome run through the Big East tourney, sparked by senior Gerry McNamara’s amazing clutch shooting. Impressive. But you know what that gets you? A Big East tournament win. While it’d be great to see the momentum carry over and lead to even more of Jim Boeheim’s profane press conferences, I don’t see it happening.

LSU (4) has serious frontcourt toughness that could spark a deeper run. Dur, if you haven’t heard, West Virginia’s (6) Kevin Pittsnogle has a funny name, but I’m more than sick of those guys.

Oh, I probably should mention Texas (2), too. The Longhorns have a gaudy 27-6 record, but sort of got hammered by Kansas in their last game. Daniel Gibson has a ton of talent, but hasn’t really progressed the way I would have expected. That leaves a heavy load on statistically similar forwards P.J. Tucker (16.2 points. 9.2 rebounds) and LaMarcus Aldridge (15 and 9). If Gibson cranks it up there’s no one they can’t beat, but then there’s no reason to expect that, either.

Oakland: This region’s best-known team is the No. 3 seed, Gonzaga. Perhaps you've heard of Communist forward Adam Morrison, a Player of the Year candidate who actually looked like a normal human being as a freshman. Like Redick, Morrison has no pro future. (Granted, both could be solid bench guys on good teams, but neither will approach stardom.) Did you see that Sports Illustrated cover where he stood next to Redick? Let’s just say I don’t think he’s 6-8 anymore. But...Morrison’s kicking in 28.4 points per game, and his team’s on an eighteen-game winning streak dating to last year.

The No. 1 seed is Memphis, which has had an outstanding season (30-3). But something about the phrase “Conference USA” sounds suspicious to me. Memphis has balanced scoring and is second in the nation in rebounding. They are the biggest obstacle to Gonzaga’s hopes for the Final Four. I am also interested to see how UCLA (2) will fare in its opening-round horse race (15).

Washington, D.C. I’ve always liked the Carolina Tar Heels (3), who really stepped up and saved whatever semblance of credibility I had by winning it all last year. They exceeded all expectations with a decimated roster. That said, I expect a solid but unspectacular tournament run.

Their opponents in last year’s title game, Illinois, snagged the fourth seed. That’s good news for fans of grind-it-out basketball and sportcoats you can hunt in. Guard Dee Brown is substantially less special when he’s not surrounded by other perimeter specialists-while he scored more points per game this year, his shooting percentage is down from .499 to an anemic .367.

Enough beating around the bush in this region. UConn (1) will surely advance to the Final Four. They’ve got the coaching, they’ve got the talent, and they have the depth. Five players score in double-digits and a sixth, Hilton Armstrong, chips in 9.8 per. In other words, they’re loaded just like last year’s champions and the UConn team of a year before that. With one region remaining, I’m going to go ahead and call Connecticut as my pick for the national champions.

Minneapolis. The selection committee apparently decided to send every “blah” team to Minnesota. I am definitely pulling for Allan Ray of Villanova (1), who’s coming back from a gruesome eye injury. Also, I want him to play for the Sonics someday. Nevada (5) and Montana (12) should have a riveting contest in the Battle of Open Space.

Ohio State (2) is sort of a baby UConn, with five players in double figures. The Buckeyes have no all-around standout, however. Boston College (4) is getting serious attention in this region as well, but didn’t really separate themselves from the pack when playing against top-tier teams. The best of the Eagles is Craig Smith, a four-year stalwart and potent inside man.