When the Houston Rockets lost Yao Ming for the rest of the season due to injury, I was relieved. The Rockets were on a 12-game winning streak at the time, but I figured they weren't really championship contenders, and if someone has to get hurt, I'd rather it was someone who wasn't going to win it all anyway.
Since then, the Rockets have extended their streak to 22 wins in a row, a remarkable feat by anyone's standards. Should I be changing my tune?
There are some reasons to say yes, and some to say no. In the positive column: the Rockets' win streak has finally moved them to the top of the Western Conference standings, where they're one game ahead of the New Orleans Hornets and Los Angeles Lakers. (Not the trio I would have guessed at the start of the season.) Second, they've...well, I guess that's it, unless you count their winning 22 freaking games in a row.
However, I still think there are more reasons to be pessimistic. First, Houston is barely in first in the conference, despite winning more than a quarter of the season in a row. To me, that means their true level lies somewhere between where they started and where they are now, unless you think Yao was really holding them back. Another piece of the puzzle is Houston's average 5.5-point margin of victory, which is only third in the West behind L.A. and the dastardly Utah Jazz. And it's not even close to the 10.3-point margin averaged by the Boston Celtics, who have exceeded no one's expectations but my own. (To be fair, Houston's average during the current win streak is over twelve points, but I think that just underscores how bad they started.)
More to the point, who's the top-caliber player on Houston's roster that's going to carry them through the playoffs? I hope you think it's Tracy McGrady, since he's the only active Rocket scoring more than 13 points a game. While McGrady is a tremendous talent, and one of the most skilled basketball players on the planet, he's yet to show he can carry a team deep into the playoffs by himself. And I'm not sure if anyone has that talent: even Hall of Famers who've led their teams to titles in recent years have had guys like Scottie Pippen, David Robinson, and Kobe Bryant by their side. (Don't give me that teamwork crap, either: I guess it worked for the Pistons, once, but they had five starters who were all B+ level players, whereas the Rockets have one active player that good. Maaaaaaaybe two. Not five.)
As much as I'd love to see '90s-era Nuggets like Dikembe Mutombo and Bobby Jackson get rings (actually, scratch that, I love Jackson but still think Mutombo's a chump for chasing the cash to friggin' Atlanta), I just don't see it happening for the Rockets this year.
Comments