I've always thought rules like, "One of the home teams will lose in the second round, you just have to figure out who it is" are stupid. Even if they're true. I'm not going to predict some random overmatched team will get lucky just so I can say I went out on a limb. Some years there's a team that's clearly ripe for an upset (think Colts of the early 2000s vintage), but this year no one falls into that category.
The fact is this year's NFL was made of haves (New England) and have-nots (everyone else). Seriously, though, the top two seeds in both conferences have seemed set for months, and I see no reason why they shouldn't all be favored in their games this weekend. Once again I predict all home teams will win.
However, since I rode that formula to a successful and coinfliplike 2-2 record last week, I'm going to break these games down in order from most likely to least likely to be an upset:
1. Giants at Cowboys (2:30 Mountain, Sunday, FOX): The Giants have a few factors going in their favor. First, since they play near New York and have strung together two good games in a row, everyone in the country thinks they are a run of historic proportions. So their confidence has to be up.
Second, they are facing the Cowboys, who beat them twice this season, and hey, it's not often you lose to the same team three times in the same season. (My favorite example of that rare occurence came in 1999, when the Tennessee Titans, two weeks off the Music City Miracle, beat the No. 1 seed Jacksonville Jaguars in the AFC Championship. The Jags finished the year 15-3, with all three losses coming to the Titans. At the Super Bowl a reporter asked Titans coach Jeff Fisher what it had been like to have four home stadiums in four years, and he responded with the classic, "Well, some would say we've had five home stadiums in four years, if you count Alltel Stadium in Jacksonville." Man, I hate the Jaguars. Anyway.)
More to the point, the Cowboys make me nervous. Yes, they finished the year 13-3 and beat the Packers in their only meeting. So they might have been the class of the NFC (congratulations, that George Halas Trophy will really be something), but aren't there clearly two AFC teams with Hall of Fame quarterbacks standing between the Cowboys and a Super Bowl victory? So why did they take their foot off the gas and coast the last week of the season? Will that and the bye week have been too much rest? I don't know. I'm also nervous for Dallas because their coach is Wade Phillips, who was on the receiving end of that Music City Miracle. But the Giants have Tom Coughlin, who I've never met but seems like a beady-eyed dictator and who led Jacksonville to those three losses to the Titans, so who knows what'll happen?
Also, New York had a better record on the road (7-1) than Dallas had at home (6-2).
2. Seahawks at Packers (2:30 Mountain, Saturday, FOX): I love Brett Favre, but he's a big reason the Packers could disappoint this week. Check Wikipedia. I certainly did, and in this millenium he's thrown 9 playoff TDs to 14 interceptions, which is actually a little better than I would have guessed. I love the guy, but he's obviously become inconsistent in big games.
Good thing for him that the Seahawks are only kind of good. To win, they'd need a big game from Matt Hasselbeck, who's fantastic but whose supporting cast can be unhelpful.
3. Chargers at Colts (11 Mountain, Sunday, CBS): The Chargers beat the Colts in their only meeting this year, a game in which they intercepted Peyton Manning six times. Also, they have the best running back of the decade. Hmmm, if this is the third-most-likely upset, one of these home teams is definitely going to lose.
Anyway, while San Diego was hot late in the year (they're on a seven-game winning streak), Indianapolis was hot basically all season long, except for a two-game blip when they lost to New England and San Diego. Could those losses, to two of the best teams in the AFC, mean the Colts have reverted to their prior ways under pressure? It's possible, but I spent way too much time saying Peyton Manning would never win it all and I feel like it's too early to stop giving him his props. You can probably tell how badly I want to stop, though, right?
4. Jaguars at Patriots (6 Mountain, Saturday, CBS): The Patriots were 16-in-frickin'-0 this year. They're not losing in their first playoff game.
Fun fact: The Patriots outscored their opponents by 315 points this year. Carolina, Atlanta, San Francisco, St. Louis, Buffalo, the Jets, Miami, Baltimore, Tennessee, Oakland, and Kansas City didn't even score 315 points by themselves this year. (Led by the incomparable Jay Cutler, the Broncos weren't much better, scoring just 320 points.)
Jacksonville was seventh in offense this year; New England was first. Jacksonville was twelfth in defensive yardage allowed; New England was fourth.
On the other hand, Jacksonville is really good on the ground (almost 150 yards per game) and the Patriots are theoretically vulnerable there, giving up 4.4 yards per carry. Of course, New England has had such huge leads this year that it's mostly academic.
If it comes down to a shootout, though, don't forget the breakout game last week of superstar Jags QB David Garrard, who completed almost forty-three percent of his passes, picked up 140 yards though the air, and threw a touchdown pass against just two picks. The overrated Tom Brady had four times as many picks, if for some reason you choose to compare his entire season just to Garrard's last game. So yeah. Look out for the Jaguars.
Comments
The Seahawks and Packers is an intriguing game. I didn't see much of either team this year, and both played in such weak divisions that it is hard to tell how good they are. And they lost to teams that were clearly better than they were. But I guess I like the Packers at Lambeau.
As for the AFC, they might as well just cancel the rest of the games and crown the Pats.
I'm surprised you left out TO's injury as a contributing factor, and the fact that Dallas refuses to give the ball to Barber (the best and most underutilized weapon on their whole team). As Romeo drops back to pass 30-40 times in the game, Strahan and Umenyiora will be putting plenty of pressure on him and he will make some mistakes. Whether or not the Giants can capitalize on those mistakes will determine whether or not they get the victory, and I predict they will.
I can't wait for the Jags game. Where the Jags are most vulnerable is in their secondary, which unfortunately plays right into the hands of the Pats. However, if they can continue to run the ball as they have all year, and keep Brady and Moss off the field they will have a great shot at a victory. Fortunately for the Jags, the Pats biggest weakness is their run defense which also plays into the Jags greatest strength, running the ball. (Also, it couldn't hurt to have some bad weather like when the Pats played the Jets and Brady was only able to throw for 140 yards.) I predict a Jags victory over an overrated Pats team.
Good point about the Pats out scoring their opponents by 315 points, but don't forget that the Pats are in the weakest division in the NFL which means they got to play Miami twice, Buffalo twice, and the Jets twice.
I agree with John on the Seahawks and Packers. Both teams could be worse than they appear.
And I love the Jessica Simpson subplot...it would be great to see her take some of the blame away from the players.
Plus, the Pats are great at making their opponents one-dimensional and then steamrolling them. Those early 2000s Colts teams with Peyton Manning were much better at throwing the ball than the Jags were at running it, and still somehow the Pats found a way to shut them down. So I am still to hear a cogent argument as to why the Jags have even a prayer this weekend.
And, uh, just for the record...you have heard of Edgerrin James, right?