No hype, just fact: Sunday's AFC Championship Game (3 p.m. Eastern, CBS) is about as historically significant as a game can be before it starts.
First, the challenger: the San Diego Chargers, winners of eight games in a row. The Chargers were just 20th in offense and 14th in defense. In terms of scoring, though, they ranked fifth in both categories, which is pretty good.
Except that the New England Patriots, who had the NFL's first 16-0 season, were fourth in scoring defense and first in points...that's first in total points, all-time.
Here's the thing: if the Patriots win, and go on to take the Super Bowl, one of the factors in the "greatest team ever" discussions will be their playoff performances. Did they dominate? Did they make any memorable comebacks? Did they set any records?
If the Chargers win, it's the NFL's biggest upset of the decade. It might be the biggest in the major team sports, too, at least in this country. Do the 2004 Pistons compare? I loved that Finals, but I don't think so.
And by the way, do you want star power? Let's see, NFL MVP Tom Brady, a.k.a. the Quarterback of the Decade, is going against LaDainian Tomlinson, last year's MVP and the Running Back of the Decade. This might be the best matchup of its kind since the NFC title game in early 1985, when Walter Payton's Bears played Joe Montana's 49ers for a spot in the Super Bowl. (The 49ers won, which helped propel the Bears to the 15-1 year the season after-shades of New England's loss to Indy in the playoffs last year.)
(In other words, I expect Tomlinson to play.)
In my mind, the only possible way this game is a disappointment is if the Chargers blow out New England, like 35-3 or something, and it's over early. Actually, even then I wouldn't want to miss a play. New England 35, San Diego 24.
The nightcap is only the NFC Championship Game (6:30 p.m. Eastern, FOX). Any superstars in this one? I count two: Brett Favre, and an ice-cold Lambeau Field.
Let's start with the weather report: it doesn't call for snow on Sunday. However, they do predict a high temperature of 5ยบ that day. And this is a night game. Does that sound like it could be memorable?
The New York Giants are heading into this game against Green Bay on a modest hot streak. Let's keep in mind, they played the Patriots close, and then won two playoff games, which is nice but not Earth-shattering. (The AFC teams both have winning streaks at least four times as long.) I can't decide if they're overhyped, or if I'm the only one who can't see how good they are.
One possible bright spot for the Giants in the cold: while they haven't run the ball especially well in the playoffs, they were great in the regular season. They were fourth in the league with 134 yards per game on the ground, and picked up an impressive 4.6 yards per carry.
I'm not sure I'm sold on the Packers, either, but one of these teams has to make the Super Bowl. I really hope it's Green Bay. Green Bay 25, New York Giants 17.
2 comments:
A cogent analysis - I agree with both predictions. The weather could be a huge factor in both games. Foxboro isn't exactly balmy this time of year, and the Chargers aren't a great cold weather team.
I like the Packers to win by a bigger margin. The Giants still have a Manning at quarterback, and their luck has to run out soon. Plus, Favre is playing some inspired ball and clearly is hungry to get back to the Super Bowl.
As for the AFC, I think your score prediction is more or less good . . . for some reason, Bellichick likes to keep the big games close, so I don't anticipate a blow-out, just a steady, overwhelming performance on par with last week's win over Jacksonville.
Sorry for this, just wanted to say it: How bout them Nuggets! Last night was the best I've seen them play this year hands down and they were without Nene and K-Mart. Hopefully they can keep it going.
I'm really excited for the games this weekend because both will be played outside and the weather will probably be a factor. Football doesn't get a lot better than championship games in both Foxboro and Lambeau in below freezing weather.
I'm interested to see how well the Chargers D plays against the near-unstoppable Pats O. Cromartie is arguably the best cover corner in the game right now (with the exception of maybe Champ) so I think the Chargers will try to play Moss one on one. This usually results in 50 and 60 yard touchdown passes to Moss, but no other teams have Cromartie either. If the Chargers can cover one on one, that will allow them to send Phillips and Merriman to put some pressure on Brady. On offense they're going to need to get LT and Sproles the ball on some short passes and hopefully they can break some tackles. I don't have a lot of confidence in a healthy Philips let alone an injured one, so I don't think they will be able to throw the ball down field with very much success. The Chargers are definitely going to need some breaks, and maybe the weather can cause the Pats to turn the ball over a couple of times and Sproles can run a kick back for a TD or something. However, since the Pats almost never make any mistakes, I think they will win and I agree with you Mike on the margin of victory.
I'm really excited to see another meaningful playoff game at Lambeau. I think this will be a really good game that will go down to the wire. I think the Giants will use the same formula they did against the Cowboys in order to beat the Packers. The Giants are one of the few teams in the league that have a front 4 good enough that they can get pressure on the QB without blitzing additional players. If they are able to put pressure on Favre with the front 4 and drop 7 back in coverage, Favre is liable to throw a couple of picks. Because of the weather, the running game will be key for both teams. The Giants are 8th in the league against the run and Green Bay is 14th in the league. The Giants run the ball well and capitalize on some Favre interceptions to get the victory 24-21.
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