The NFC Contenders

Time for part 2. Right now the NFC has seven teams with winning records, and even though only six make the playoffs, I’ll rank all of them.

7. Atlanta Falcons (7-6)

Key stat: The Falcons lead the league with videogame numbers in rushing (197.7 yards per game) and yards-per-carry (5.6).

Positives: Mike Vick is the best quarterback among the 7-6 teams, and Atlanta has won a few playoff games in recent years.

Negatives: Possibly too many to list. They had a four-game losing streak. They’ve been outscored this year. The defensive statistics are pretty unimpressive, and even worse if you consider that teams with good ground games typically inflate their defensive statistics by controlling the ball. The passing attack is 32nd in the league. (Wait, why do I like Vick?)

Outlook: Could be the odd man out, but if they’re in, it’s one-and-done.

6. Philadelphia Eagles (7-6)

Key stat: Even with an unwanted quarterback change, the Eagles are third in offense.

Good: Jeff Garcia has no picks in 134 attempts, and his quarterback rating is slightly higher than Donovan McNabb’s. Brian Westbrook has already had, by far, his best year as a runner.

Bad: Garcia’s been a heck of an insurance policy, but he’s still a downgrade from McNabb. Defense is hopeless against the run. Team lost five of six at one point.

Outlook: Not really going anywhere, but a nice bounce-back season. Could they have done more with McNabb? Probably not.

5. New York Giants (7-6)

Key stat: The Giants’ six losses came against teams with a combined 51-27 record (Colts, Seahawks, Bears, Jaguars, Titans, and Cowboys).

Plusses: They beat most of the teams they should have, including Atlanta on the road by thirteen. Tiki Barber is still getting it done-2nd in the NFC in rushing in his final season.

Minuses: Tom Coughlin. Inability to find any rhythm thanks to a difficult schedule.

Outlook: This team is decidedly average-they win the games they should and lose the games they should. I guess they might upset the Cowboys, but the Seahawks and Saints appear out of their league.

4. Dallas Cowboys (8-5)

Key stat: Tony Romo’s 8.75 yards per attempt, a nearly two-yard improvement over Drew Bledsoe.

Good: Have won five of seven with Romo as starter. Offense good for 26.8 points per game, fourth in the league. Bill Parcells.

Bad: Obliterated by New Orleans last week. Most of their wins have come against bad teams. And there’s always a chance the young quarterback could come crashing down.

Outlook: The Cowboys can put up points, but so can other NFC teams. They should win the division and possibly a first-round game at home.

3. Seattle Seahawks (8-5)

Key stat: Thanks to injury, Shaun Alexander has just 591 rushing yards, more than a third of which came in one game.

In their favor: They won the NFC last year. Matt Hasselbeck and Alexander are back from injuries. Tremendous home-field advantage.

Bad signs: They’ve been outscored on the season. Hasselbeck and Alexander still show signs of rust. The Seahawks have lost to both the 49ers and Cardinals-and that’s just in the last four games.

Outlook: So why am I so high on Seattle? Mostly because the rest of the NFC is so mediocre. (Dallas is the only other team I could even consider for third in the conference.) And, considering the obstacles this year, their record is amazing.

2. New Orleans Saints (9-4)

Key stat: Drew Brees is already over 4,000 yards passing.

I like: the unstoppable deep passing attack, watching Reggie Bush highlights, and the attitude and production of Deuce McAllister.

I don’t like: the run defense that gives up more than five yards a carry. I don’t like their convincing home losses to two good-but-not-great AFC teams, the Bengals and the Ravens. And I’m already getting a little sick of the President.

Outlook: Clearly one of the top two teams in the NFC, and the best bet to upset Chicago. It probably won’t happen, but I’d love to see Brees beat the Chargers in the Super Bowl.

1. Chicago Bears (11-2)

Key stat: Chicago has scored 27.1 points per game, tops in the NFC. Yes, more than New Orleans.

Good: The defense, especially against the pass. Devin Hester. Lovie Smith not turning it over to Brian Griese.

The question mark is Rex Grossman, naturally. He’s up, he’s down-six games with a rating higher than 100, and three games where he was below the 39.6 “all incompletions” mark.

Outlook: With games against Tampa Bay, Detroit, and Green Bay, the Bears should cruise to home-field advantage. I don’t expect much from Grossman-inconsistent passers usually become consistently awful when the playoffs roll around. But Chicago’s defense and special-teams let the Bears ask less of their quarterback than any other squad. And while the Saints are pretty legit by NFC standards, I don’t think New Orleans has the right team to win in Chicago in January.