The AFC Contenders

If the season ended today, the Broncos would miss the playoffs, which is exactly what will happen when the season does end.

Despite what every player on a bubble team says-“if Pittsburgh did it last year, so could we”-a No. 6 seed is most assuredly not winning this year’s Super Bowl. Two reasons. First, Pittsburgh was remarkable precisely because they were rare-no other team ever accomplished what they did. And two, Pittsburgh would have had a much better record had Ben Roethlisberger stayed healthy. None of this year’s sixth-seed contenders match that profile. So even if a surprise team sneaks in (like, say, the Broncos), don’t expect much from them.

In any event, the six AFC teams that would make the playoffs today are, in fact, the six best teams in the conference. So how do I rank the AFC’s true contenders? Like this, from worst to best:

6. Cincinnati (8-5)

Key stat: They rank 32nd in passing defense.

I like: The passing attack, of course, that has the Bengals sixth in the league in scoring.

I don’t like: Anything else. They can’t wear the clock down with Rudi Johnson’s 3.8 yards per carry average. The defense is eighth in points allowed, but there are a lot of reasons that number is misleading. The defense is average-at best.

Outlook: Not good. First-round losers, probably, though that’ll depend on the matchup. (Check it out, no arrest jokes!)

5. Indianapolis (10-3)

Key stat: The Colts have been held to seventeen or fewer points in four of their last five games, a stretch that includes all three of their losses.

This looks good: And yet they’re still fifth in scoring and second in yards per game. This sounds weird, but they’re probably at the nadir of the season, and they’re still in good shape.

This does not: Does their free-fall after a 9-0 start signify a hangover from last year’s disappointment? It sure does. Besides, teams like Cleveland and Oakland give up fewer points per game, so the Colts’ offense has no margin for error.

Outlook: Maybe they should be higher than the fifth-best team in the conference. I just think the Colts have too much mental baggage to advance far in the playoffs.

4. Jacksonville (8-5)

Key stat: The Jaguars average more than one hundred sixty yards per game on the ground, more than anyone but the Falcons.

I like: The team’s resilience. Jacksonville lost to Houston 27-7 on Oct. 22. Despite quarterback turmoil, that’s the only game they lost by more than one score. Plus, they just obliterated the Colts.

I don’t like: this franchise, or its 25th-rated passing attack.

Outlook: The Jags would be set in the NFC, but are lost in the AFC shuffle. They might win their first game, though, especially if they face Indy again.

3. Baltimore Ravens (10-3)

Key stat: It’s Baltimore...what do you think their key stat is? They’re tops in the league in points allowed, giving up just over a baker’s dozen per game.

I like: The star-studded roster, and quarterback Steve McNair who, while no longer a superstar, has been incredibly accurate the last several weeks. Not only that, he’s got a track record of clutch performance.

I don’t like: the team’s personality, a combination of stout defense and short passing to control the clock. Yes, it worked for New England in years past. But I don’t think the Ravens can establish any kind of ground game in the playoffs, and being one-dimensional will hurt them.

Outlook: With Indy fading, they could be the No. 2 seed, which means an easy road to the AFC Championship. I don’t think they're much of a threat to win it, though.

2. New England Patriots (9-4)

Key stat: The Patriots were shut out by Miami last week. Wait, that’s bad! Let’s try: the Patriots have outscored opponents by 95 points, more than anyone but Chicago, San Diego, and Baltimore.

Good vibes: Tom Brady and Bill Belichick. Third in points allowed.

Bad news: Brady’s been a bit inconsistent this year as he’s struggled to adjust to an overhauled receiving corps. The offense can be good, but it doesn’t scare anyone.

Outlook: With some teams, you throw the stats out the window. Actually, no, I don’t agree with that. But the Patriots are better than their record shows, and I still trust Tom Brady more in a close game than anyone this side of Vince Young. (That’s a joke; Brady is still king.) I might be giving them too much credit for experience, I guess, but it hardly matters. The Patriots, like everyone in the AFC, clearly look up to the...

1. San Diego Chargers (11-2)

Key stat: LaDainian Tomlinson has had seven straight 100-yard games, including three over 170. He may have broken some sort of record last week.

I like: LT for MVP. Those consecutive road comebacks over the Broncos and Bengals. The average score of Chargers 32.7, Opponents 19.8. The fact that both losses came by only three points. Philip Rivers.

I don’t like: um...I like almost everything. The defense could be a little better against the run. It’s possible that someone will keep a playoff game close enough to keep running the ball, but Jacksonville’s the only other AFC team with a frightening ground attack. Oh, and Marty Schottenheimer.

Outlook: Super Bowl.

Coming soon: The NFC.