Have I bragged enough about the Nuggets' new guard? Allen Iverson has, not particularly surprisingly, been even better than advertised with his new team. He's been aggressively setting up his teammates and providing the team his infectious energy.
The real question for the Nuggets now is: how good can they be when everyone is back in the lineup?
Now, far be it from me to put limits on one of my favorite teams. If the Nuggets win the championship this season, no one will be happier than I'll be. But for all the talk of the team's newly-claimed elite status, there's one reason I don't think the Nuggets will win this year's title.
That reason? The San Antonio Spurs.
That's right, the Spurs. The team that's only in second place in the Southwest division behind the Dallas Mavericks-the very team that sent them home from the playoffs last year. The Spurs' winning percentage matches Utah's for merely the third-best in the conference (no longer true-see below). So why do I worry?
Because you should forget the records-the Spurs are the best team in the NBA so far. And they're the worst matchup for the Nuggets, but more on that in a second.
Why are the Spurs the best? Let's look at the competition:
The Eastern Conference. Good one! Yes, find me a contender from the Eastern Conference, where a team like the Celtics, with a 10-17 record, is only two games out of first place. (To be fair, in the Central division, everyone has a winning record.)
But the defending champion Heat are floundering without Shaq, the Pistons are good but past their championship prime, and the Wizards and Cavaliers, for all intents and purposes, are one-man teams.
Phoenix. The Suns are on a tear. Steve Nash is overrated, but what else is new? Certainly not the Suns' ability to give up 110 points to any team on any night.
Utah. I hate to break it to Jazz fans, but-who am I kidding, I love breaking it to Jazz fans-their team's success, while nice, is ultimately a house of cards. Yes, they're 21-8 and, for a while, had the best record in the league. But their average scoring differential (3.9 points) is more befitting of a team with a much worse record. Don't tell me that's coaching, either-that's luck. Expect Utah to slide back to the real world as the season goes on.
Dallas. The defending West champs are on a seven-game winning streak and currently sit just ahead of San Antonio. (Since I started writing this, the Spurs finished a thorough beating of the Jazz and are now considered 0 games back of the Mavs, though the Spurs' record is slightly worse by percentage.) But as good as the Mavericks have been, I still question their rebounding and crunch-time competence.
The Spurs, on the other hand, currently lead the league in scoring differential at 9.4 points per game. That's fantastic, and that's why, barring injuries, they'll finish with the NBA's best record. But the real reason they worry me is how they match up with the Nuggets come the playoffs.
Almost everything a Nuggets does well, the Spurs have an answer for. Marcus Camby's a great shot-blocker and terrific rebounder, but Tim Duncan can easily match him board-for-board while more than occupying his attention on the defensive end. Carmelo Anthony is an unstoppable machine this year except in fights, but he's yet to have a breakout series and gets frustrated, just like everyone else, when matched against Bruce Bowen. (Michael Finley's wearing down after years of ridiculous minutes, but he's not a bad spare against Anthony, either.) J.R. Smith has given the Nuggets a desperately-needed boost on the perimeter, but Manu Ginobili does it even better. Allen Iverson has the clearest edge on the Spurs' Tony Parker, but Parker's at least close to him in speed and is capable of excellent team defense.
Of course, Iverson-Carmelo could be the next Jordan-Pippen (without any of the defense), but that's a lot to count on, especially in one season.
I really think the Nuggets'll take a playoff series or two, and if things go well, they can be at least as good as the Suns and Mavs. But if I have to guess now, they're still not quite championship material.
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