Welcome back! Believe it or not, in almost a year and a half, this is HPS' 100th post. That blows my mind, because it seems like every few weeks I apologize to you two for never writing, but I've written more than once a week.
The glorious NFL season is nearly upon us-the Broncos' preseason opener is tomorrow night. I've always wanted to write one of those huge Bill Simmons-type previews that talks about every team, but I'm too lazy to write it and you're too lazy to read it. Instead we'll start with a tour through the AFC West and see how we feel. Today's subject: the Oakland Raiders.
Last year: The Raiders finished with a 4-12 regular-season record. As a result, they did not appear in the playoffs.
The big change: The return of Art Shell as head coach. Shell led the Raiders to a 54-38 record from 1989 to 1994 (I should probably mention that I lifted that stat and almost all others from ESPN.com.). The former offensive lineman is a gigantic improvement over last year's coach, the laughable Norv Turner.
Shell's not just any former player-he's a Hall-of-Fame offensive lineman. That's important because any improvement in the play of Oakland's offensive line will be huge. On a positive note, the Oakland line has as much room to improve as any in the entire league.
They stockpile bad passers: The Raiders sure like NFC South washouts at quarterback, signing talented ex-Saint Aaron Brooks to replace the gashed Kerry Collins. Like Collins, Brooks has a strong arm and can throw the deep ball. Like Collins, he doesn't waste time obsessing over which team catches those deep passes. Brooks is mobile and was accurate in his early days, but has made little improvement as his career has gone on.
The offense: The Raiders nevertheless have to get something out of Brooks, as neither Andrew Walter nor the Marquis de Tuiasosopo is ready to contribute. (Tuiasosopo will clearly never become ready.) Brooks has a pretty solid supporting cast for a team that lost a dozen games-Randy Moss can still be the league's premier deep threat, and runner LaMont Jordan should have a bounce-back season if the passing attack can keep defenses guessing.
On the other hand, the line could be horrible again, and the dropoff from Moss to the team's No. 2 receiver is big, especially if Jerry Porter is traded. Expect inconsistency all season long.
The defense: The Raiders surrendered more than 2,000 yards rushing and a passer rating greater than 90 to opposing teams last year. In other words, at least the defense was consistent. Oakland picked former Texas safety Michael Huff in the draft, but they need help all over the field. And yes, Warren Sapp is still, technically, on the team.
Greatest power forward of all-time: will kick.
Outlook: 4-12 is really bad and the Raiders should win more games this year. But they have way too many question marks to compete for the playoffs. I expect six or seven wins from this team.
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