Redick on Tour

Two things.

First, a couple weeks ago in the comments, one of my brilliant (that's a synonym for “two”) readers asked about the pro prospects of former Duke shooting guard J.J. Redick. I said I'd get into it more later, and now it's later, with the Orlando Magic selecting Redick in Wednesday's draft.

It's impossible to say with absolute certainty how a player can turn out. That said, I think you can guess pretty well for most players. My guess with Redick: he won't make a very good pro. I think the best situation for him is as a bench player-and not a sixth man, more like an eighth-on a good team.

I just don't think his skills-fantastic in college-translate very well to the professional level. The positives:

-His shooting. Redick is a terrific perimeter jump shooter and is valuable to any NBA team on the strength of his free throws alone. At least he could be. Even if Redick can't get an open shot his whole career, he'll still be a good free throw shooter, right? So doesn't he make more sense as the twelfth man on a contending team than some washed-up veteran or NBDL prospect? Of course, no team actually uses their twelfth man that way, but what if he was the in-on-offense, out-on-defense sub for Shaq? Wouldn't that spread the floor for Dwyane Wade and give opponents one more person they absolutely couldn't foul, or am I crazy? (Of course, Miami just won a championship-this is just an example.)

-Experience. Redick has experience in big games and he's comfortable in the spotlight, at least off the court. More to the point, he was the most-hated collegian in years; he's clearly not rattled by angry crowds.

-Conditioning. Duke's always thin, which means their starters generally play huge minutes. Thus, even if Redick's not in tip-top shape now, he at least knows how to take conditioning seriously. (That's not as much of a given for pro athletes as you'd think.)

The negatives:

-Size. Redick is 6-4, 190, which puts him somewhere between point guard and two guard in the NBA. Actually, he gives up size to big points like Jason Kidd and Andre Miller. But since he lacks essential point guard skills, he'll be a shooting guard. He's not so small that it's literally impossible for him to succeed...but I don't think he can guard NBA twos for thirty minutes a game.

-Defense. Duke traditionally plays fantastic team defense, and Redick was solid enough there. That said, I don't think he'll be well-suited to the man-to-man he'll often play in the NBA. He's used to teammates who can help cover for him. In Orlando, the backcourt...well, how can I say this nicely...they have as much room for improvement as any in the league!

-Crunch time. Yes, he has big-game experience, but Redick's play seemed to falter under pressure-just check his numbers when Duke has been eliminated from the last few March Madnesses.

-Type of player. There are a lot of very good outside shooters in the college ranks in the 6'3” to 6'4” area, and most of them don't do anything in the pros. Of course, most of them aren't Player of the Year candidates in college, either. But then again, most of them don't drive drunk or suffer back injuries, so it might just even out.

I think the negatives outweigh the positives. Redick could have a long career, I just wouldn't expect it to be very memorable.

* * *

On to the second thing, which is the doping scandal that has rocked the Tour de France.

If you haven't heard, Ivan Basso, Jan Ullrich, and Francisco Mancebo-the No. 2, 3, and 4 finishers in last year's Tour-have withdrawn from the race. More accurately, their teams withdrew them after each was named in a Spanish doping investigation.

Considering how often I knock baseball, I say kudos to everyone involved. (Well, not to the bikers.) I don't know for sure that any of these guys did anything wrong. But with the amount of money involved, it's interesting to see how quickly the teams distanced themselves from the riders. Take this quote from T-Mobile (Ullrich's team) spokesman Stefan Wagner:

Asked whether T-Mobile would consider cutting ties with Ullrich completely, he replied 'certainly ... we are now demanding evidence of his innocence.'
'If this evidence can be provided, then we have a completely new situation," he said. "If it cannot be provided, nothing will change about this situation.'

This strikes at the heart of why it's so hard to investigate performance-enhancing drugs. If he's innocent, what evidence could Ullrich possibly provide? I think we all agree that falsely banning one athlete who didn't use drugs is far worse than allowing ten guys on the juice to compete.

I see this and I ask myself: what other league would do something like this? Can you imagine the NFL suspending Hines Ward, Joey Porter, and Shaun Alexander before last year's Super Bowl? Then again, it is cycling, a sport where etiquette is more prominent than, say, baseball. (Or, in other words, they actually have etiquette in cycling.)

But that's the whole point: the Tour's not doing anything. It's corporate sponsors who don't want their images tarnished. We often worry about the influence of big companies on American sports-is that Spider-Man on the bases?-but maybe it's time to reconsider that. If T-Mobile was paying for a spot on, say, Baltimore Orioles jerseys, don't you think real steroid testing would have been implemented a lot sooner?

Good for him!

Having a bad day at work? Money woes got you down? Does life seem unfair?

Let me cheer you up with the heartwarming story of Indiana Pacers forward Peja Stojakovic.

If you're not much of an NBA fan, you're forgiven for not knowing Stojakovic. He's a basketball player, but there's a lot of basketball he's not very good at. He doesn't rebound, he doesn't pass, and on defense, he makes Dirk Nowitzki look like...well, no one makes Dirk look good on defense, but they're both bad. (That said, ahem, I've never seen Peja step back from Shaq as he goes for a dunk with a championship on the line.) You might argue that Stojakovic just isn't as good at some things as at others, but it's worse than that-if he was a pro golfer, for example, he wouldn't even have a putter in his bag, that's how whatever-the-opposite-of-versatile-is he is.

Stojakovic is a fabulous shooter, though-possibly the best in the world-which is enough to get him named to three All-Star teams, which does nothing if not demonstrate the flaws in the selection process. That's all he does. Thank goodness for teammates.

Peja's in the last year of his contract, or would be, if he hadn't exercised an option to become a free agent.

Peja was going to make $8.1 million next year. $8,100,000! That's a lot of money. Shoot, when Ashley Lelie didn't work out in Denver this year and cost himself $100,000, I thought that was insane, but this is eighty-one times that. (Note to Lelie: when you're afraid you might not got to play as much, avoiding exercise might not help things. Just a thought.) I'd like to think even if I was rich that $100,000 would motivate me, but maybe it's just human nature to get lazy.

What motivates a man to turn his back on that much money? Why, the chance to earn even more in the future! And it's absolutely worth the risk. Here's why:

1. Peja is coming off a knee injury. His agent says it's healed, and we should all take him at his word. Of course, there's a chance that a basketball player could use his knee a lot in his line of work and somehow-I know, this sounds wild-end up with a chronic condition. But no one thinks it's chronic yet, so sign a long-term, fully-guaranteed deal while you can! (Even if it's not $8 million next year, it'll be well into the tens of millions over the next few years.)

2. Peja is 29 years old. That's not as big of a deal as the fact that next year, he'll be 30. No one knows whether Stojakovic will age gracefully. (Wait, I do-he won't.) But either way he's only got one major deal left, and coupled with reason 1 above, he's a lot more likely to make it count this year than next.

3. According to comments made by Knicks owner James Dolan, Isiah Thomas could be facing his last year in New York*. In other words: Free agents, cash in now.

By selflessly turning his back on eight million dollars, Peja will be rewarded with something of even greater value: more than eight million dollars. What a society we live in. Have a great day!

(*=unless he turns things around. Ha!)

Ha ha ha ha ha...

You know the saying "truth is stranger than fiction"? Well, I hate sayings, but I don't know what else to say about this. It's hilarious.

Four legends

Congratulations to the Miami Heat. They bounced back both from last year's disappointing loss to Detroit and from the 0-2 deficit they found themselves in just over a week ago to win their first championship.

Much will be made of the emergence of Dwyane Wade, who has been amazing from day one and is well on his way to becoming a legend. Shaq is already that highly regarded, and Kobe-haters no doubt delight in his most recent title.

Today I just want to take a moment to reflect on the two other Heat veterans who are potential Hall of Famers. I'm speaking, of course, of Alonzo Mourning and Gary Payton, both of whose former greatness is now but an afterthought.

'Zo-Depending on how loosely you define it, 'Zo is one of the greatest centers of all time. Some years ago (1999 or so), I read Dr. Jack Ramsay call 'Zo one of the ten best centers ever. (I think it was in a mailbag on NBA.com.) Like all such lists, players in their prime were given too much credit.

When you write out a list today, it's harder to see him that high-he has competition like Russell, Chamberlain, Shaq, Olajuwon, the Admiral, Patrick Ewing, Nate Thurmond, Moses Malone, George Mikan, and others. (Obviously Mourning would obliterate Mikan, but you get what I'm saying.)

That said, Mourning was a terrific rebounder and defender and a graceless but highly competent scorer in his day. The biggest hole in his game was that he wasn't much of a passer. I thought Mourning should have won MVP in the lockout season of '99, but for once, Karl Malone found himself on the right side of a memorable steal. (Well, for twice, I guess-Malone didn't deserve his other MVP trophy either.)

Anyway, Zo's mostly remembered now as a warrior for his comeback from kidney trouble. That comeback earned his enough goodwill to force his way out of New Jersey, which was kind of messed up, but at least he ended up back on the right team.

I can still remember watching Mourning's first home appearance after rejoining the Heat on TV. He was too nervous and out-of-shape to do much, but the atmosphere at the arena was electrifying-one of the coolest things I'd ever seen. I'm really glad to see all the hard work pay off for him.

The Glove-Gary Payton ranks almost as high on a list of great point guards as Shaq should on any list of great centers. Payton's been the best point guard since I've been an NBA fan (the last ten years or so) and ranks ahead of anyone in my lifetime, except Magic and Isiah.

John Stockton? Please. If he'd had a conscience-free jump shooter like Karl Malone on his team, Payton could have raised his assist totals to double-digits while maintaining his dangerous scoring. As it was, when he did have Shawn Kemp, Payton was good for 20 points and world-class defense every night. In the 90's, that kind of consistent effort was matched only by superstars Michael Jordan, Scottie Pippen, David Robinson and Hakeem Olajuwon. Also unlike Stockton, Payton wasn't known for elbowing other guys in the unmentionables, which earns him points in my book.

Jason Kidd? Kidd has a versatile game himself. He probably beats Payton as a rebounder and surely as a passer, but I think assists are a little overrated to begin with. Payton, of course, has a sizeable edge in scoring and on defense, and I think he was more clutch. While Kidd always goes at top speed, his best defensive move is undercutting offensive players and drawing charges. He gets so much favoritism from the officials on those calls that even Dwyane Wade could call it shameful. Charging is the most annoying call and kills the flow of games, so I knock Kidd down for that. But I think Payton was better anyway.

Payton has been a disruptive force through the years, though, and he hasn't been very eager to accept a supporting role as his career winds down. Sometimes it seems every NBA player is like that. But I'm not saying the guy's a saint-I'm just glad he got a ring.

Miami wins Game Four

Six thoughts:

1. Is Jerry Stackhouse blind? He knows that was Shaq he knocked over, right? I understand Shaq’s not the player he once was, but he’s still seven-feet-plus and three-hundred-pounds-plus, and Stackhouse is still a talent-wasting pansy. Actually, Stack was tough after getting his face bashed in Game One, but after his cheap shot, he spent the rest of tonight’s game shrinking from contact. It was most evident when he bricked a dunk instead of challenging Alonzo Mourning directly-though avoiding that sure hit was probably his smartest move of the evening.

2. Maybe it is in his head after all. Dirk Nowitzki put up a Valentine’s Day, going 2-14 from the field. He spent more time on the arena floor than a Zamboni, begging for-and getting-a number of ridiculous bail-out calls. Vlade Divac reportedly called the Dirk in the locker room at halftime to berate him for “playing like a woman”. The officiating tonight was pretty shady-hmmm, what are the odds of that with Dick Bavetta present?-but Nowitzki couldn’t take advantage.

3. Speaking of the officiating... That really was one of the most poorly-reffed Finals game I’ve ever seen. For a while there in the second half, the Mavericks got every single call. While I’m not usually big on reactionary rules changes, something has to be done about the blocking and charging calls, which Jake Plummer laughs at and calls inconsistent.

My friend Jason put it best when he compared the game to an old copy of NBA Live, which had a setting to let the losing team back into the game, invariably with the most egregious calls and bounces.

4. Miami shut up and played. Dallas didn’t. I thought Miami would go on a huge run immediately after Shaq got knocked over, but it didn’t happen for another quarter. Either way, the Mavs were shell-shocked. The only Dallas player who didn’t wet himself was Jason Terry-but, like his teammates, he should have just left for the locker room after the third quarter ended.

5. Shaq is back. No, he didn’t even crack 20, but he’s more active than he’s been in years and was very efficient from the field. I loved watching him abuse Ericka Dampier on the low block.

6. Dwyane Wade, Dwyane Wade, Dwyane Wade. Wade’s 36 points were more than twice as many as anyone else had-and yet, his night wasn’t especially memorable. Maybe he can carry the Heat for two more games.

Game Threcap

Did Miami make it a series again last night?

Short answer...I don't know. I mean, on one hand, the Heat defended their home court and can tie the series up two weeks from tomorrow when they play Game Four. On the other, Miami barely scraped together a win after being beaten pretty soundly in the first two games.

But I'm encouraged, for two reasons:

1. Dirk missed that free throw. Dirk has been reborn in these playoffs, or so the common storyline goes. It's true, he's played very well. But people talk about it like he's suddenly become one of the best players in the league.

That's not really true. Dirk has actually been one of the league's stars for years. It's just that he plays like garbage in the playoffs. In this postseason, he has elevated his game, but I don't think he's really someone you'll tell your kids about yet. (Come to think of it, which athletes would you tell your kids about? I'm sure mine'll hear about MJ and Elway, but they're just as likely to hear the old HoopsTV.com joke about how many names Shawn Kemp recognized from his stack of Father's Day cards. Okay, maybe I won't tell them that exact one, but you get what I'm saying. Won't you and your kids have better stuff to talk about? Perhaps it's because my own dad's not a huge sports fan, but I don't plan on boring mine to death in that specific way. Anyway.)

Why mention Dirk's past struggles? Because with Dallas down two with seconds left last night, Dirk got two free throws to tie the game. He made the first and missed the second. Now I don't know what will happen, but I can see it affecting him mentally. He's heard his whole career that he's soft and he chokes, so the constant questioning the next few days could be distraction. Then again, I always thought he summed up his outlook on basketball pretty well in that awesome American Express commercial a few years back, the one when he told Don Nelson, “Ich dach ich soll schießen.” So he might not second-guess himself at all. Anyone care to make any predictions?

2. Dwyane Wade is Superman. After Nowitzki's miss, Wade was fouled with Miami now up one. He made his first and missed his second, too, which was kind of big considering a long three can be a team's only hope at a clean look near the end of a game. But the difference was that Wade immediately atoned for it, breaking up the lob on Dallas' inbounds play to clinch the win.

That wasn't his only big play of the night-Wade finished with 42 points and 13 rebounds, the kind of numbers playoff teams used to get out of Shaq. Wade's been pretty clutch ever since he came in the league-yes, he has Shaq on the floor and Pat Riley on the bench, but a) it's not 1998, and b) he did carry a pretty flawed Heat team to the conference semis his rookie year.

Can he and his team do it again? It'd be pretty tough, but this is the championship round, so everything's tough. I know I'm getting stoked for Thursday night.

NBA Finals Preview

Two surprising teams, both with the second-best record in their conference, advanced to the NBA Finals (game one starts tonight at 6 p.m. Mountain on ABC). Dallas has shuffled its lineups a bit throughout the postseason, so these matchups are based off of who started in the last game. Here’s why I think Miami will win:

Point Guard: Devin Harris, Dallas vs. Jason Williams, Miami. On one hand, we have the young player who’s still developing and on the other, a veteran who will never grow up. Harris has been a pleasant surprise in the playoffs, shooting over fifty percent from the field, but still makes some of the mistakes you’d expect from a player his age. Besides, Dallas really doesn’t ask much of him. Williams is as streaky as always, but when he’s on, he’s incredible-see Miami’s last game against Detroit for details. Edge: Miami.

Shooting Guard: Jason Terry, Dallas vs. Dwyane Wade, Miami. This matchup is closer than you think-oh, who am I kidding? No, it’s not. Terry’s a scorer who can spell Harris at the point, but Wade outclasses him in nearly every respect. Plus, Wade’s shoe deal in with Converse, so I’ll love him until the day I die. Edge: Miami.

Small Forward: Josh Howard, Dallas vs. Antoine Walker, Miami. Walker can do a little bit of everything, but Howard does even more. Walker’s main offensive contribution is launching threes at this point, though he can still go to the hole if they’re not falling. Dallas needs Howard to play huge to make it a series. Edge: Dallas.

Power Forward: Dirk Nowitzki, Dallas vs. Udonis Haslem, Miami. Haslem insulted the so-called integrity of the game this postseason when he threw his mouthguard at a referee in the first round and earned himself a one-game suspension. It wasn’t a real shock, considering that time in college when he threw a basketball into the stands.

Nowitzki’s been anointed the breakout star of the playoffs and received nearly unprecedented favoritism from the referees. My snarkiness aside, he’s Dallas’ leader and should own this matchup. Edge: Dallas.

Center: DeSagana Diop, Dallas vs. Shaquille O’Neal, Miami. Diop has made a name for himself in this postseason somehow, but I’m a little underwhelmed by his 3.1 points per game. To be fair, his contributions have been more of the defense and rebounding variety. Shaq’s a three-time Finals MVP. While he clearly got his legs back at the end of the season, he didn’t play particularly well early in the playoffs, at least by his standards. Nonetheless, Diop will need speedy double-team from all directions help to have a prayer. Edge: Miami.

Bench: Jerry Stackhouse, Erick Dampier, Adrian Griffin, Keith Van Horn, Dallas vs. James Posey, Gary Payton, Alonzo Mourning, Miami. Stackhouse is not a typical bench player: he’s fourth on Dallas in minutes during the playoffs. While he’s not close to a star anymore, he’ll keep Wade from catching a break defensively. Shaq’s shown particular public distaste for Dampier, who’s never been close to good enough to make O’Neal eat his words.

Posey and Payton play plenty of minutes, but neither contributes much more than jump shooting on offense. Both can still play tough defense in spurts. Mourning still fancies himself a defensive enforcer but is mostly foul-trouble insurance for Shaq at this point. Who can tell which bench will play better, but Dallas’ backups at least give the team more versatility. Edge: Dallas.

Coaching: Avery Johnson, Dallas vs. Pat Riley, Miami. Johnson’s probably had a better year, but so what? Riley’s a legend. Besides, getting his talented-but-flawed Miami team to the Finals is more than anyone could have expected. Edge: Miami.

Outlook: As Can Dallas slow down Shaq? Not a chance. Miami’s got deeper perimeter defense than Dallas is used to seeing, and I think Wade will challenge Shaq for Finals MVP. Miami in six.

McNair to Ravens

If Steve McNair can pass a physical, the Tennessee Titans will trade him to the Baltimore Ravens.

The Titans, of course, locked McNair out of their training facility this offseason due to a contract dispute. McNair was on the books for an enormous salary cap figure this year but refused to renegotiate his deal.

Was McNair delusional? Not even close. Sure, I guess it’s possible that the 2003 co-MVP thought he’d get to stick around and cash in. More likely, though, he saw an easy way out of town and took it.

Things change quickly in the NFL, but the Titans probably won’t be competitive for a few years. Surely McNair knew this. Now he gets to bail on them without taking a PR hit.

The Titans, on the other hand, are ready to turn the team over to Vince Young. Is it the right decision, or should young quarterbacks take a few years to learn before they see the field? I don’t think there’s a one-size-fits-all right answer to that question. Yes, Carson Palmer benefited from waiting behind Jon Kitna, but Peyton Manning started from day one on an awful squad and quickly became a star. Besides, if sitting is all a young player needs, Jarious Jackson’s decade on the Broncos’ practice squad should have turned him into a Hall of Famer.

If a quarterback’s good enough to make it in the NFL, he’ll probably be fine whether he sits or plays his first year. I think Vince Young’ll be great, though I don’t expect a ton from him as a rookie.

As for the Ravens, taking a rival’s franchise cornerstone for a third or fourth-round pick is worth it just out of spite, but McNair can still play, too. He’ll at least beat out Kyle Boller, you know what I’m saying?

Having horrific quarterbacks has cost the Ravens for years, but the team still has a number of name players, none of whom, in a rare twist, served any jail time this year. Check out their depth chart.

That roster has been screaming out for a quarterback for years now, and the Ravens have finally found one. Watching the Ravens, Steelers and Bengals fight for the division title this year should be great, though I have to go with the Steelers right now. What do you think?

Secret Weapon

Remember when I said the Nuggets need another big man? Well, I don't. But it sounds like something I would have said. Plus, after Nene's injury and K-Mart's insanity, we were looking at a long search for a new post player.

That search is over.

Shawn Kemp, now 36 years old and light-years removed from his glory days, attended the Nuggets' free agent camp in hopes of making an NBA comeback. He'll turn things around. Um, right?

"I've always appreciated basketball," Kemp said. "I never tried to disrespect the game. That's why I stepped to the side a couple years ago to get my focus back to see if I really wanted to put the effort into basketball."

In other words, this is a love of the game comeback. I wanted to make a joke about paying child support in six different languages, but this is serious business. Anyway, I'm glad Kemp doesn't want to disrespect the game, because I can't think of anything he's done that could be misconstrued that way.

In Kemp's defense, he's played well against NBA-level competition. Sort of.

In scrimmages over the last three days, Kemp held his own against younger post players and blocked a shot by 6-foot-11 Geoff Husted with authority as Husted entered the lane.

He blocked Geoff Husted? No way! I don't remember Ben Wallace ever rejecting Geoff Husted. Here's a picture of Husted doing a little shot-blocking of his own-if Kemp can go toe-to-toe with that guy, we're in great shape.

We'd better act fast.

Kemp said there are other teams interested in his services, but the Nuggets are definitely on his radar.

"I look forward to hearing from them [Denver]," Kemp said.

Finals preview? Not yet

Tonight's NBA Finals Game One (6 pm Mountain, ABC) promises to be an exciting matchup of-

I'm sorry.

It turns out the Finals don't start until Thursday. I can see why the NBA would want to delay the series and maximize potential weekend games. However, the only weekend contests will be Games 2 and probably 5, which land on Sundays. There aren't even any Friday night games. So that's not it.

Instead of building on their momentum and leaping headfirst into an intriguing Finals, the NBA bizarrely elected to cede control of the airwaves to Albert Pujols' injury.

And instead of trying to predict what will happen four days from now when I don't even know what I'm doing for lunch in forty-five minutes, I just want to talk about the closeout games.

East Finals: The Heat cruised to a surprisingly easy 95-78 win over the Pistons. Every time the Pistons went on a run in the second half, the Heat matched it with scoring of their own.

Friday's game showed how awesome Miami can be when the supporting cast is hitting shots. Jason Williams got off to an obscene 10-for-10 start before missing his last two shots (loser), and James Posey grabbed eleven boards. That easily made up for a just-okay night by Dwyane Wade, who was suffering from the flu.(Is it okay with everyone if I call it the flu and not flu or flu-like symptoms, even though I'm not his doctor?)

I was impressed with how thoroughly Miami outplayed Detroit. Basically none of the Pistons played well-even Richard Hamilton, who scored 33, was noticeably less efficient than usual.

I wonder how we'll think about the Pistons ten years from now, or if we'll be thinking at all. By that I mean: will anyone look at them critically?

What am I trying to say here...look at the Packers of the late nineties. They won Super Bowl XXXI, then lost the next year to the Broncos, and lost in the first round the next season to Terrell Owens' famous touchdown grab.

Yet we still revere Brett Favre as one of the game's greatest quarterbacks (and rightfully so), and think of those Packers as a more dangerous team than they probably were.

Last week I said one title in the NFL means more than it does in the NBA, or at least it should. I still stand by that, I just don't know if other people recognize it. If the Pistons' run is over, they accomplished more than a lot of other teams ever will-but they also fell far short of historic greatness.

Let's not forget how the Pistons managed to end up a mere footnote to that players-in-the-stands brawl with the Pacers a few years ago. That might have been their most impressive feat yet.

West Finals: The Mavericks played some defense in mounting a nice comeback to finish off the Suns. At least I think so. I have to take the Associated Press' word for it, because I could not have found that series any less appealing and didn't watch it.

Tall goofy white guy with bad hair versus short goofy white guy with bad hair...you know, it's really shocking those two bonded back when they were on the same team.

I am glad I won't be watching the Suns anymore. No, nothing about dunks offends me. It's their coach. I've noticed in the playoffs that Mike D'Antoni likes to wear a tie in his team's colors. Does he always do that?

Is this high school? I think it's pretty weak but sort of understandable when college coaches sport team colors during March Madness, for example, but for an NBA coach to try to match his team's uniform is miles past your ordinary brand of lame.

Conference Finals update

This NBA playoffs, no series lead is safe. The Los Angeles Lakers blew a 3-1 lead in the first round against the Phoenix Suns. The Dallas Mavericks did everything they could to waste their 3-1 advantage over the Spurs. I’m tempted to say the referees are the only reason the Mavericks won that series. I’m not sure if you saw it, but late in Game Seven, a Mavericks employee handed Dirk Nowitzki the wrong flavor of Gatorade during a timeout, and Dirk was awarded three free throws.

(That said, I can understand why the league would want teams from big markets, like the Lakers or Knicks, to win. I can’t really see why they’d want to do Mark Cuban any favors.)

Anyway, the Heat jumped out to a 3-1 lead over the Detroit Pistons in the Eastern Conference Finals, but lost to the Pistons last night. Can the Heat avoid falling into the same trap?

I ask because the Heat are my only hope for caring about this year’s Finals. The Pistons are pretty cocky for a team that won only one title-and that came under fluky circumstances. (Had Kobe simply fed Shaq more, they’d have won-but then, Kobe’s ego running away from him isn’t really a “fluke”, is it?)

Basketball’s not like other sports, where one title can cement you as a legend. Truly dominant teams always repeat or win multiple titles over a few years. Need proof?

If anything, it’s kind of hard not to repeat. (While looking at NBA.com, I found a webpage that might be my new favorite, at least for any organization's official website. Apparently the league hasn’t had a champion for a few years.)

Unlike the Pistons, the Heat are an attractive squad for all hoops fans. In Shaq and Dwyane Wade they have both a first-ballot Hall of Famer and a potential legend in the making. I didn’t believe in the Heat at the start of the playoffs, mostly because they lost to Detroit last year and seemed to regress this season. Now Shaq has rounded himself into playing shape and Wade has continued to grow as the league’s best crunch-time assassin. Plus, while we were all sick of the Shaq and Kobe feud about five years ago, it would be great to see O’Neal and his younger but far more mature sidekick bring a title to Miami.

* * *

Meanwhile, the Western Conference Finals are locked in a 2-2 tie. But they come second in this column because I expect the West to field this year’s second-place finisher. The Dallas Mavericks and Phoenix Suns in the West are both teams where toughness is a huge question mark. The Suns score so many easy baskets it almost makes a mockery of the sport. However, only a few select players cross halfcourt and attempt to stop the other team from scoring.

Dallas has improved defensively under former Spur Avery Johnson, but I can’t see them slowing down Miami or Detroit. Too much of Dallas’ success still rides on making jump shots.

One more thing caught my eye after Game Four. Nowitzki had had a bad game and was talking to the media afterwards. All he was saying was a bunch of meaningless clichés about how he and the team needed to bounce back after a tough loss. Now I know the post-game interview is not the most engaging process in the world. But it occurred to me that maybe Nowitzki doesn’t have any answers for when he doesn’t play well. He’s not the only player who struggles to create something when his shot’s not falling-Kobe Bryant comes to mind-but I think that's why he’ll always be regarded as a supremely talented player, never a transcendent one.