Monday, July 25, 2005

Embrace the Star System

Last week one of my roommates and I were debating the impact of the loss of Larry Brown on the Pistons' hopes next season.

My roommate thought Detroit would fall far, finishing no higher than fifth in the East, a number I'm certain he plucked out of thin air.

I asked him, who's better? Miami? Who else?

My roommate's a delusional Nets fan, so he threw New Jersey on the table, which I of course consider ridiculous. (He's also a huge Angels and Raiders supporter, so you may correctly guess we don't agree on a lot sports-wise.) Why New Jersey? Well, they still have Kidd and Vincent, but they also added Shareef Abdur-Rahim, whom my roommate calls a 20-and-10 guy who never played on a winning team.

I inquired, whose fault is that?

My roommate later corrected himself and said Abdur-Rahim is a 20-and-8 guy, which is close enough to true, but even further illustrates the point: if he was a better rebounder, maybe his teams would win a little more often.

Anyway, I'm not here to talk about the New Jersey Nets and their playoff prospects next season.

No, I'm here to talk about superstars. (Meaning Abdur-Rahim no longer factors into the discussion.)

Sports are all about teamwork, you say. Parents put their kids on teams to teach them about unselfishness and working together. Or to learn how to suck it up when you have to do things you hate, such as when my parents kept putting me on soccer teams instead in a sport I actually wanted to play, like football.

Yet for all the virtuous lessons, and especially at the youth level, the team with the best individual player is almost always going to win.

And if you're the best player on your team, and your team can't cut it, well, it's probably your fault. It's not that simple, of course, but it's often close, especially in football and basketball.

There's a reason superstars get the big money. Yes, they put fans in the seats. But even more, it's the promise of winning that packs the house.

Let's face it, championship teams are almost always defined by that one truly great player. Shaq. Michael Jordan. John Elway. Tom Brady. Ray Lewis. Tim Duncan. Joe Montana. Stockton. Oh, whoops, scratch that last one.

If you remember my earlier meniton of Larry Brown before all this meandering, you're probably thinking, what a second, what about the Detroit Pistons? They won it all in 2004, and they did it with a team, not as stars, thereby proving once and for all that a great team beats individual talent every day of the week.

Yeah.

First of all, the Pistons are the exception that proves the rule. No, I don't know have any idea what that means. But I don't see how one fluke year-a series the Lakers easily should have won, had Kobe kept his ego in check and let Shaq shoot a little more-disproves most of basketball history to that point.

People say the same thing about the Patriots and their three-out-of-four Super Bowls run, but that's even more ridiculous, because the Patriots are actually loaded with individual talent. Tom Brady is the best quarterback in the NFL, hands down. Corey Dillon has long been one of the league's very best running backs. And Tedy Bruschi, last year, was probably the best linebacker in the world-and he certainly was the best come playoff time.

Don't forget Ty Law.

Of course, not every great player wins it all every time. There are a lot more factors that go into winning-quality of the supporting cast, quality of the opposition, injuries, age, et cetera.

But clutch performance isn't limited to the Super Bowl or the NBA Finals. Often, a player provides glimpses of his greatness with triumphs in earlier postseason rounds.

A good local example is John Elway. First, let me state my completely unbiased opinion that he is the greatest quarterback of all time.

With that out of the way, he took the Broncos to three Super Bowls in his early years and lost three times. He lost to absolutely loaded New York and San Francisco teams, and also to Washington, which had a fantastic if occasionally forgotten run. But he did get to the Super Bowl; this despite playing on a team that featured offensive weaponry like Sammy Winder and the Three Amigos.

At the end of his career, he got back to the game twice and won both. At the time, a lot of the credit was given to Terrell Davis and even more to Mike Shanahan, because you see it was the coaching that finally got Elway over the top.

Six years and no playoff wins later for Shanahan, you don't hear that argument much anymore.

Perhaps fans and analysts should have considered his entire body of work a little more closely before labelling him a choker. In his fourth season, he led "The Drive"; clearly not the work of someone who can't handle pressure.

Let me reiterate: this was in his fourth season (and I'm aware this column is rapidly devolving into Elway hero-worship). To put that into perspective, do you think David Carr will save his team's Super Bowl hopes with a late game-saving drive on the road this season?

But Elway did just fine in playoff games early in his career, and as soon as the odds weren't overwhelmingly stacked against him, he won it all.

This theory doesn't hold for baseball, by the way, mostly because it's such a democratic sport. Forget empirical evidence, I've yet to collect any compelling anecdotal evidence that baseball players make each other better, except possibly for a great pitcher who can pitch a lot of innings or in very tight situations and take the pressure off the rest of the staff-a guy like Curt Schilling or a young Mariano Rivera, for example.

How well a guy handles the pressure doesn't seem to change over time. So allow me to make some snap judgements on famous players.

Can they handle the pressure or can't they?

Here we go:

Brett Favre: Favre hold the record for MVP awards and won a Super Bowl early in his career. But the last few years he has put up some horrific playoff games. He's not winning another title with that team, but I'm not sure he would on any but the most stacked defensive squad.

Tom Brady: Just because he's the best doesn't make him infallible-don't forget that interception he threw in the end zone late in the Super Bowl against the Panthers. But his postseason record is perfect, and even though that can't last and he may never win another Super Bowl (nothing against him, I just appreciate that it's an incredibly hard thing to do), expect him to put up many more clutch performances.

Peyton Manning: The anti-Brady. King of the meaningless regular season statistics; lowly pauper in the playoffs-unless you think forty-nine touchdown passes while running up the score is some kind of impressive accomplishment. And his three playoff wins have come up against pathetic competition: two Broncos teams with serious issues and the 2003 Kansas City Chiefs, who practically begged you to score so they could get the ball back.

Michael Vick: Here's a man who is always a) oversimplified and b) called "electric". He's either the worst passer in the game, or the most amazing talent ever to grace it, instead of a more fair and true middle ground of both. He's won his first playoff game both years he's gone to the postseason, only to lose to the Eagles each time. As overrated as I think he sometimes is (come on, do announcers have to talk about him during games the Falcons aren't even a part of?), I am impressed with his win at Lambeau in the snow. And the Falcons have been competitive whenever he's started. I'll label him a winner for now.

Donovan McNabb: A bit of a tough one. He led his teams deep into the playoffs very early in his career. However, his innacuracy borders on comical, and his inability to notice time running out in the Super Bowl plants him firmly on solid choking ground.

Kevin Garnett: Another tough one. Puts up massive numbers every year, always takes responsibility, seems to be a nice, stand-up guy, and was stabbed in the back by selfish teammates last year). But it took him forever to win a playoff series (yes, his team was often the lower seed, but I say again: whose fault is that?), and he hasn't any memorable postseason efforts. I'd say he's more likely to tense up and misfire under pressure, but he's the one guy I'd like to give the benefit of the doubt.

Jason Kidd: Give me a break. Wins close playoff games against horrific Eastern conference teams with no backbone, then falls apart in the Finals faster than a political debate with Alex Sudreth. Sorry, but he chokes.

Tim Duncan: One relatively bad Finals can't undo years of performance. He'll come through in the future.

If you disagree or want my opinion on anyone else, go to the comments, of course. And I apologize for not having that Broncos/Rockies rundown last week, but a) I had a four-hour meeting Friday and was pretty much spent afterwards, and b) nothing particularly cool happened last week anyway.

12 comments:

David said...

cue the "team work" rebuttal:

as much as it is "cliche"... i think there is something to be said for the x-factor of "chemistry."

yes, individual superstars make the championships.. hello "paging mr. jordan... your 4 12 year old girls are here to win the NBA championship." You could've staffed him with anyone, and he would've won.

but there is certainly something to be said for team-chemistry. a perfect example of this is embodied in the boston/yankees series last year. Or the lakers/pistons series of '04.

both the lakers and yankees looked better on paper. rosters laden with talent and individual accomplishment. yet in both situations the team with better chemistry won. to your credit, of course boston and detroit had a good portion of talent themselves, but i believe that team chemistry was the winning factor.

as a baseball player, i can refute mike's lack of faith for the need of chemistry in the sport. as a pitcher.. it makes a huge difference when you have a bond with your infield, you trust them, you work as a unit together. when you feel like you have to do everything yourself, you put more pressure on yourself, and focus on making every pitch the "perfect" one. That leads to overthinking, over throwing, and walks.

I think this relates to the rockies a lot... the rockies are much better with a pitcher who is a ground ball pitcher as opposed to the chacon - "i'll strike you out or bust" approach.

chemistry is embodied in a mutual concern and awareness for your teammates. performing because you don't want to let them down. i think that this is the sort of thing that made new england's defense so effective, or boston's offense so potent.

just my .02 cents.

David said...

also mike, a great read.

another thing to consider... barry sanders was the greatest back in the game during his time, and i'd posit the best of all time.

he was unable to get his team beyond the NFC championships... and suffered through much mediocrity

now a much less talented back, e. smith, had aikman, d. johnson, irvin, blah blah blah... so the team of course overrides the phenom-level of one great player.

David said...

Dan Marino.

Mike said...

I didn't mean to eliminate consideration of chemistry completely, only to say that it is probably overstated a bit.

Team chemistry was definitely the key in Lakers-Pistons. Red Sox-Yankees, I'm not so sure, because, in a slight understatement, the Red Sox came pretty close to blowing that series.

You are probably right about the pitching thing, yet even when the Rockies have had good infield defenders-Castilla, Neifi and Helton played together, didn't they?-the pitching still sucked. Yet I can totally see how that helps.

I'm less convinced about how a player helps in a batting order-you always hear the "well, he'll get more fastballs hitting in front of so-and-so, because they don't want so-and-so up with men on base"...I could be wrong, but don't they try to get everyone out? And I believe the numbers appear to show that batting order is less important than you might think. I admit, having never played a single game of baseball, that I could be wrong here, too.

I definitely oversimplified, I'll admit.

Moving along to Sanders/Marino...I disagree, and how! I felt like Sanders was very overrated-bit of a prima donna, not much of a blocker or pass receiver-but more to the point, whenever I watched him, he put up good numbers, but he'd do it in an awful way. Break off an amazing 40-yard run, with spectacular jukes, spins and quickness, then get stopped behind the line on back-to-back plays to kill the drive.

Then again, there's something to be said for his change-the-game-in-one-play talent. As well as for his 13 carries, -1 yard performance against Green Bay in the '94 playoffs. Yet he had no talent around him, which is why I mostly limited the football discussion to quarterbacks, who probably have the most impact on winning or losing by themselves.

I'd've taken T.D. over Barry in the brief overlap of their primes (I just prefer Terrell's more consistent style, and huge playoff numbers), and Walter Payton over anyone, ever.

Anyway, I always thought Dan Marino was a self-centered jerk who did his best to wreck team chemistry. Two reasons, one of which is overly harsh. When the Dolphins came to Mile High for their 38-3 postseason pasting during Elway's farewell tour, the Dolphins invested $1,500 in a box to keep Marino's helmet warm on the sideline when he wasn't wearing it. What a sissy!

I also remember a quote from Tyrone Braxton, who got to play with Marino and Elway and compared the two by saying Elway got along with everyone on the team, whereas Dan Marino had said hi to him-once.

Then I recall Marino's brief flirtation with the Dolphins front office a couple years ago, when he took the job just so he'd have a desk to pen his resignation on, and I don't see him as a leader of men.

Aside from which his career path reminded me a lot of Cal Ripken, with that fantastic MVP-level start in the 80s, followed by a decade of coasting off everyone's memories.

David said...

mike,

i appreciate your comments about marino... as a devout elway-ite, it's always nice to hear things about the competition. good arrows to have in the quiver for greatest QB debate.

sanders/TD.

what TD had was a very good offensive line, a great QB, TE, and an ok cast of recievers to soften the blow.

when teams went up against barry... they'd put 9 men in the box and beg barry to beat them. and he usually did. barry never had a decent qb (scott mitchell?) and while he did play with one of the game's top wr's at the time (herman moore) it wasn't enough of a lure for teams to shift their focus from barry.

while td was perhaps more consistent on a strict carry by carry basis ... compare their last three seasons. hell, compare their careers. barry was WAY more consistent across the board. and finished with a higher average per rush.

check out his second to last season... 6.1 average per rush, that is ridiculous

Mike said...

In a career sense, there's no way Sanders doesn't blow T.D. out of the water, which is why I meant to limit said comparison to their primes-'97, '98 ish for both of them.

Comparing their last three seasons is a little silly, because you're comparing Terrell's by far worst with Barry's best.

T.D. definitely had the better team, by a lot.

I guess it comes down to style. Sanders did have a better per-carry average, which is big, but Terrell gave back-to-back years setting the record for combined carries for regular season and postseason, and his performance didn't suffer-he was at his best in the postseason (142.5 yards per game!).

OK, yeah, his performance suffered when his legs fell off the year Elway left. But I liked the move-the-chains more than the flashy highlights.

Obviously, you'd rather have Barry's career for your team, unless having T.D. could somehow guarantee those two Super Bowls, of course.

T.D. was kind of a throwaway comment, but I still stand by Payton, who despite his lower 4.4 average, brought ferocious blocking, incredible receiving skills, exceptional durability (was held out of exactly one game in his career), and stellar all-around play (eight career touchdown passes) to the position. And his Bears teams were, until the end, at least as terrible as Barry's. Then again, he couldn't make his team win either, which is why I stuck with the quarterbacks.

As for Marino, well, anyone who brings up Dan Marino in a greatest QB of all time debate is probably not someone you should be talking football with. At least give Elway the respect of comparing him to Montana, Unitas, or even Otto Graham for the clinically insane who think ancient history is as impressive as modern times. My old roommate Sam Jones used to like to bring up Steve Young, on the highly technical grounds that he had the highest passer rating of all-time, an argument that fell apart when a) he couldn't explain to me what passer rating is and b) Kurt Warner passed Young on the career rankings. NOBODY thinks Kurt Warner's the best ever, except maybe for his wife, whom the Onion once referenced as "Wire-haired goblin cheers on Kurt Warner".

It's pretty obvious I will have to write a column about all this someday.

David said...

wire haired goblin...

holy cow that's hilarious.

i think "why elway was the greatest qb of all time" would be a good blog entry some day.

but it is interesting to consider how winning championships factors into the debate.

i wonder if elway would be so revered (historically, not geographically)if he didn't win the back to back superbowls. probably not.

he'd be another marino... good talent, couldn't carry the team on his back.. which the duke certainly did on more than one occasion.

Mike said...

I think that's absolutely true, because I think that's how Elway was seen before he won it.

Even geographically-I grew up in Colorado, obviously, but I always took crap for rooting for the Broncos after those Super Bowl losses.

Eventually, of course, the Broncos broke through, and then all those theretofore experts jumped on the bandwagon. Man, I hated those bastards.

David said...

mike,

i'd also like your take on who the next great young QB will be out of the recent batch... big ben, phillip rivers, eli, alex smith, etc...

and it's not too early to get on the 'lil vick train either.

perhaps that's a thread for another day...

but i don't see alex smith making any more contribution than... ryan leaf.

Mike said...

Well, that is a good idea, but to put it quickly:

I have total faith in Big Ben, and said before last year's draft he should have gone No. 1. Obviously, I have seen nothing to change that. (Maybe that's not obvious, since some people think his playoff performance was a little underwhelming-but I think for a rookie he was fantastic.) Actually, I have changed my mind about one thing-he's more mobile than I had realized.

Eli Manning's a chump. I remember hearing about him in college before his senior year and everyone saying, you know, he won't measure up with his family...then closer to the draft, everyone said, you know what, his name is Manning! and decided to give him the benefit of the doubt. He could develop into a solid starter, but I don't think he'll be a star. Well, a real star. If he's any good at all the media'll shove him down our throats.

Drew Brees played way over his head last year, so who knows when Philip Rivers will get his shot. It seemed to me like the worse thing anyone could say about him is that he's sidearm, which is majorly lame looking, but he has a good arm and accuracy and put up great college stats. I don't think he'll be a franchise-maker or anything, but he could be a good to very good long-term starter-maybe like a Jake Plummer/Matt Hasselbeck or so?

As for Alex Smith, his style-wow, this is getting long-reminds me of Jeff Garcia. I think he'll make much more of himself than Leaf-if Leaf hadn't been such a jerk off the field, he might have gotten more of a shot in the pros, when he really didn't get much of one (his own fault, plus he couldn't hit the broad side of a barn). Smith may well have a decently productive career, but I don't think he was worthy of No. 1. He's a brainy guy, good on the short-range passes, so he could turn out to be like a Chad Pennington or so, though less of a passer and more mobile, so not really like Pennington at all, I guess.

Okay, Vick I like, like I said. I'm also a fan of Byron Leftwich, who I thought should have been the No. 1 pick a couple years back. Big, cannon arm, great accuracy, and he showed incredible toughness in college playing on a broken leg. That's the kind of guy I want leading my team.

David said...

m,

i agree... i like byron and big ben a lot. it will be fun to see them come along.

i think manning is destined to mediocrity. how can he possibly live up to the standard set by his father and his brother. i see eli being as much of contributor as danny kanell. the only thing that will keep him in the league will be his name.

Mike said...

Jeff Garcia's past his prime, but he had some fantastic seasons in San Fran, which will never again spend the money to be good. (In the NFL, there's just no excuse for that. It's not like you're not gonna make a boatload of money either way.)

I agree with John about Al Smith, if only because since San Fran is in such sorry shape, he'll get a lot of chances. So he won't be Ryan Leaf, he'll be at least about a Joey Harrington, which is still a bust, but not as spectacular a one. Though I think he turn out better than that.

Why NFL teams can't scout quarterbacks is a mystery I'll never solve.