After seeing tonight's Denver Broncos-Houston Texans game, I'd like to revisit a piece of everyone-saw-it-coming conventional wisdom: namely, how dumb were the Texans to take Mario Williams over Reggie Bush?
Remember, this question was settled for all time last year, when Bush led his New Orleans Saints to the playoffs, while Williams' foibles left the Texans on the couch for the postseason. At least that's the story I remember. But it was really settled the year before that, when both were in college, and when Bush, a.k.a. The Next Gale Sayers, became the highest-paid amateur athlete ever.
Just one problem. Williams has been way better than Bush this year.
I don't mean to bash Bush for his knee injury, which may or may not keep him out for the rest of the year, even though when analyzing someone's worthiness as a No. 1 overall pick I think it would be fair to do so. Let's look at just the stats, instead.
Williams had three-and-a-half sacks tonight to bring him to 13 on the year, good for second in the NFL. That's very good. Bush, meanwhile, has 157 carries for 581 yards and four touchdowns this year. That's a 3.7 per-carry average, which sounds bad for Bush, but actually represents an improvement over last year. He also has 73 catches for 417 yards (a 5.3 average, down from 8.4 a season ago) and two more touchdowns. And he's fumbled the ball a Tiki Barber-like seven times.
Even his game-by-game rushing totals don't provide much room for optimism. Against Seattle in week six, Bush ran for 97 yards. Against Jacksonville in week nine, he ran for 72. Those were his best outings all year, though he also had a few games in the 60s. Despite the hype, Bush has yet to prove himself as a featured running back in the NFL.
I really don't hate Reggie Bush or anything, but I just hope you remember this example the next time someone judges a career path so early.
To be fair to myself, I never said the Texans should take Reggie Bush. Instead I called on them to draft Vince Young, who, like Bush, has had a statistical nightmare of a season. Bush has zero hundred-yard rushing games; Young has no games with a passer rating of 100. (To be fair, his 99.9 against Houston was pretty close.) Young's completed 62 percent of his passes—more than ten points higher than last year—but still throws mostly short, and has 7 touchdowns against 16 picks. Maybe it's impressive just that he's still playing, given the Madden curse.
I believe in Young's potential, and I'd still take him over Williams in a heartbeat. But it's too early to be too sure.
Comments
I'm tired of people saying that "he just isn't that kind of back" in defense of him not being able to carry the load of a featured back. Well, why not? Is he too small? What about MJD? He's only 5-7. Reggie Bush is 6-0. I think the problem is his mentality. He's not tough enough to be a featured back in NFL.