New game, same result: Rockies win, and now they've swept the Phillies and will face the Arizona Diamondbacks in the National League Championship Series.
It's the perfect cap to the best week in franchise history for the Rockies, a week that started when the Rockies beat the Diamondbacks Sunday to force a regular season playoff. Monday they beat the Padres in a 13th-inning comeback to make the real playoffs. Wednesday and Thursday they beat the Phillies twice, almost matter-of-factly, then finished them tonight with another spectacular win.
The Diamondbacks, meanwhile, just finished their own series sweep over the Chicago Cubs. The Rockies' scorching finish to the season makes them the hotter team, but both squads look pretty good right now. So I can't assume the Rockies will beat the D-backs on pure momentum.
The Diamondbacks won the NL West this year, but most of the statistical signs favor the Rockies. My favorite? The Rockies outscored their opponents this season by 102 runs. The Diamondbacks outscored their opponents (or, should I say, didn't outscore their opponents) by -20 runs. That -20 margin is not only worst in the playoffs, it's also worse than five non-playoff NL teams (the Mets, Braves, Brewers, Padres, and Dodgers). Personally, I'd rather have the run differential than the division title. The Rockies won the season series 10-8.
The Rockies have the edge in star power, too, with MVP candidate Matt Holliday and possible Rookie of the Year Troy Tulowitzki. And don't forget Todd Helton. The D-backs do have future Hall-of-Fame Randy Johnson, but he's been out for months following back surgery.
Too bad luck is a bigger factor in baseball's playoffs than almost anywhere in sport. It'd be no shock if the Diamondbacks overcame their mediocre regular season and made it to the World Series. They just have to win a few more games. But I think the edge goes to the Rockies. I won't guess how many games it will take them to win, though four would be nice.
Game 1 is Thursday night.
11 comments:
GO ROCKIES! I still can't believe the Rox are putting together this kind of run, and they are doing it with such confidence and skill. Baseball purists througout the country must be howling, especially now that the Cubs have been eliminated - which, of course, only makes this run all the sweeter.
My favorite moment against the Phillies happened in Game 2. Here is the transcript of a phone call I had in real time with a coworker named Tom (a Tigers fan):
Me: [Calling Tom]
Tom: What's up?
Me: Life is good, brother, life is GOOD!
Tom: Dude, what are you talking about?
Me: My Rox are up 6-3 - and the Phills just brought in Jose Mesa!
Tom: You might as well stop watching. Jose Mesa spent two months with the Tigers one seasons - and amassed a 24.0 ERA.
[Speaking of Jose Mesa, how does a guy like that still have a job in MLB? I mean, he has played poorly now for every franchise in the league. Why haven't they wised up?]
As for the D-backs, I like our chances a lot. On the pythagorean formula, they should have been a 27-win team. As long as our pitching holds up, we should be in good shape. I still can't believe that it's October and the best sports story in Colorado is the Rockies . . .
WE ARE GOING TO THE NLCS!!! HOLY WO! SEE YOU ON SUNDAY SON!!
Is anyone else getting sick of Cal Ripken discrediting the Rockies by saying "well the Phillies just had some bad luck by having to face the hottest team in the league." I keep hearing statements similar to that on ESPN also. It just goes to show the NL gets almost no coverage in comparison to the AL, because anyone who has been watching the Rox since June would know they have an awesome team with a lot of skill. They have the best record in the league since the all-star break with the exception of the Yankees. And they had the best defensive team EVER in a single season. I'm sick of the Rockies not getting the credit they deserve.
Dave/Blaine...I thought you guys were Yankees fans?
I don't what's better, the two statistical cracks in John's comment, or that Jose Mesa's no-exaggeration ERA with Detroit with actually 12.34.
Blaine, I haven't heard Cal's comments, nor do I understand why he's working on TV instead of coasting on his five years worth of sick days.
Why let Ripken's comments get to you? The Phillies were unlucky to face us. The Rockies completely dominated them. And the top four won-loss records in baseball all came from AL teams this year. So what? None of it means a lick if the Rockies win it all.
People said the same stuff about the 97 Broncos, and they were just as wrong then. ("Oh, the Packers obviously would beat them if they played again". Um, not if their comeback strategy was still "Let the Broncos score here!") It bugged me for a little while, but I got over it. All I care about is if my team wins-who cares if people make up excuses to make their team or their predictions look better?
(Also, since you brought it up, the Rockies did have the best fielding percentage in history, which doesn't make them the best defensive team ever. The fielding percentage is an expression of the relationship between plays made and errors. If you're too slow to even get to the ball, you won't make an error, so you could theoretically have a good fielding percentage but actually be a bad fielder. Also, errors are judgment calls in the first place. I think the Rockies are really good on defense, but just figure this is worth pointing out.)
Mike,
Semantics! Setting the single season record for fielding percentage does make them the best defensive team especially when you consider the fact that they play half their games in Coors Field, one of the most hitter-friendly parks in the league.
Blaine, come on. Do you know what fielding percentage is?
Fielding percentage, according to our friends on Wikipedia, is just (Putouts+Assists)/Total Chances. In other words, it's the percentage of plays you don't make errors on.
However, you only get an error if you're in position to make a play, right? What if you're too slow to even get in position? If you have no range, but catch every ball you get to, you could have a perfect fielding percentage but, in fact, be an awful fielder. For example, David Segui (at least at one point) was the all-time leader in fielding percentage for a first baseman. But was he ever actually better than Todd Helton? I doubt it.
All I'm saying that, in a vacuum, fielding percentage is not good enough to be the final word on everything. (Setting this one record, in other words, does not make them the best defensive team EVER.) And playing in a hitter's park doesn't really have anything to do with it, though specific field conditions like the height of grass could, I guess.
Mike,
I get what you're saying, I just think that if you really are "slow" and can't make the play based of a lack of skill then you won't be playing on a professional team for very long. So, over the course of an entire season, 162 games, the law of averages will weed out those players who just suck as opposed to those who consistently make mistakes.
But, I think it is a good point...you probably can't call the Rockies the best defensive team ever based solely on that statistic. However (and I think you would agree) a strong argument could be made for the Rockies as the best defensive team ever for 2 reasons:
1. The Rockies DID have the best fielding percentage ever, and they don't have players on their team who either don't give 100% effort on every play or lack the necessary skills to make routine plays.
2. They play at Coors field which is one of the largest ball parks in the league. With a larger park, the players have more ground to cover (especially the outfielders) making plays that may be routine in another park, more difficult for the Rockies.
A scintillating discussion of fielding percentage, gentlemen, but it doesn't make one lick of difference. We simply were the better team than the Phillies in the NLDS - and our momentum, when coupled with our talent on both offense and defense, makes us a force to be reckoned with in the NLCS and beyond.
And who cares about Cal Ripken? His precipitous decline made him look like Joe Montana. If baseball had ever heard of a non-guaranteed contract, both of those guys would have finished their careers in Kansas City.
Let's bring on the D-backs already - I am more than sick of the Indians and Yankees, but I will laugh if Steinbrenner drops the best manager in the game in favor of some controllable scrub.
I fully admit the Rockies are quite good on defense, but I don't know enough about other teams to rank them all-time. I think some players are good enough hitters to stick around even if they can't play defense, especially considering that small-market teams sometimes have to choose one skill or the other. The Oakland A's of a few years ago, for example, had a bunch of atrocious defenders simply because the team figured power hitters gave them more bang for the buck.
How come Ripken never got the Brett Favre treatment? They even hold the same record (well, Favre only holds it for quarterbacks).
I've been waiting for the Yankees to fire Torre for years...can't wait for it, personally.
And a-MEN on the D-backs. Why do we have to wait for friggin' Thursday?
world series. i bet we play cleveland. suckers... that series in in the BAG.
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