Championship days are great.
Tonight the San Antonio Spurs and Cleveland Cavaliers tip off in Game 1 of the NBA Finals (7 p.m. MDT, ABC). Two teams with two of the biggest stars in the league. If you can't get excited about this, you don't like basketball. But I guess you already knew that.
It should be an interesting matchup of styles, one the Spurs will eventually win in six games. The Spurs have been to the Finals before and won, while the whole "over .500" thing is still pretty new to the Cavs. The Spurs feature a big man who can be dominant on both ends in Tim Duncan, while the Cavs are led by a dynamic and versatile perimeter offensive star in LeBron James. The Spurs have a number of wildly overrated role players, whereas only one Cavalier will get credit even if they win it all. (Of course, San Antonio's supporting cast really is better than Cleveland's.)
Shoot, even the boring star (Tim Duncan) follows the rules of modern capitalization, but the flashier LeBron James has neither use nor need for convention.
A few numbers I found interesting:
* The Spurs gave up the fewest points in the league this season (90.1 per game).
* The Cavaliers have given up the fewest in the postseason (86.7 per game).
* The Cavaliers swept the two-game season series. I never put much stock in that, until the Warriors continued their dominance of the Mavericks in this year's first round. (Doesn't it feel like that upset happened last year?)
* Despite his recent 48-point explosion, LeBron is still scoring less than he did in the regular season.
* Like every Eastern Conference team not from Michigan, the Cavs had a losing record on the road this year. And the Spurs have the homecourt advantage. However, with the championship round's 2-3-2 format, the Spurs will actually be on the road more if the series lasts only five games.
Why do I pick the Spurs? I think they're a better team and came from a better conference, meaning they've already faced tougher competition and won. I think Duncan is better than LeBron, and the team with the better star almost always wins the Finals. I also like the Spurs' ability to excel in any style of game. But I think the Cavs will last six games because the Spurs tend to let teams hang around. Their last Finals (2005 with the Pistons) went seven games after Duncan lost all touch from the foul line. Also, I think the Cavs will pull out a game or two on their own merits, considering how well LeBron has played lately.
2 comments:
I was tempted to take the Spurs in 5 on the theory that the Cavs are about as good as the Jazz, but I like the Spurs in 6 prediction because of San Antonio's propensity to let teams hang around. And while the Cavs have impressed me, they haven't hit a team like the Spurs yet, and experience counts for a lot in championships.
And, yes, the Warriors' upset feels like it happened ages ago . . . which I guess it did, thanks to TNT's go-go gadget playoff schedule.
i pretty much agree with everything mike said.
i might even watch, just to see how lebron does. could be history in the making
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