Short version: It's not 1995. And the long, since both players lost in their debuts last night:
Shaq to Phoenix: The Lakers, the team Shaq lead to four NBA Finals and three NBA championships, defeated the Suns last night behind Kobe Bryant's 41 points. O'Neal had 15 points and nine rebounds in 29 minutes of action. This is about as glad as I'm ever going to be about Kobe having a good game: it adds spice to a rivalry that is now a few seasons old.
Anyway, I find my mind changing a little bit about Phoenix's trade for Shaq, which had them send Shawn Marion and reserve guard Marcus Banks to Miami. To me, the trade really comes down to why you think the Suns haven't emerged as true title contenders the last few years.
Do the Suns lack talent, or are they underachievers? With all due respect to Shaquille O'Neal, who is one of the greatest players ever, a Marion-for-Shaq trade doesn't seem to add much talent to the Suns at this stage in those players' careers. Shaq is huge, and I don't think he's completely finished, but Marion is one of the most versatile and athletic players of the decade.
But if the Suns have failed because of chemistry, suddenly adding Shaq makes a ton of sense. For one, he's a good team guy, but it's probably a bigger deal just that he's a gargantuan Hall of Fame-level center. If you're Steve Nash, wouldn't you expect a sudden decrease in elbows and cheap shots with O'Neal prowling the lane behind you? The flip side with Shaq is that he tends to dominate the media attention, but the only Sun I know would have had a problem with that is Shawn Marion.
About a year ago I read Jack McCallum's book, :07 Seconds or Less, about a year he spent with a Phoenix Suns team of recent vintage (2005-2006). It was pretty enjoyable, especially considering how little I like the Suns. One of the things he talked about was how Marion craved being the star of his own team. (You know, sort of like Penny Hardaway or Kobe.) Personally, I can't stand guys like that, and Marion did seem to handle it more professionally than either of the guards Shaq had butted heads with in the past, but I think trading Marion might have been a bit of addition by subtraction for this team.
Ultimately, though, I think the Suns needed more talent and improved chemistry. Shaq should do wonders for the team part, and even on the court, he's a better fit than people think. The question with Shaq is always if he's motivated (and following a trade, he should be), but on the court he can fit in better with this team than people think. If he's playing defense and rebounding, he'll start plenty of fast breaks, and he gives the team an option in the halfcourt offense, which they'll need even more come playoff time. But look at the talent side. Unfortunately, the Suns still don't have an answer for some of the franchise players out West, like Tim Duncan and Kobe. Also, their "name" players-like Steve Nash and Amare Stoudemire-are all limited in some way. Nash, for example, is a gamer, a fantastic passer, and a very good scoring option, but can't rebound and doesn't defend very well. Put it all together and I don't see them making the Finals.
(One more point about the trade: keep in mind that Shaq has always benefited from having some extra motivation...or, less politely, sometimes he plays like he needs a kick in the butt. The fact is he didn't seem too pleased in Miami this year (just check his stats), which made him more valuable to not Miami than to Miami, if that makes sense, and which put the Heat in a poor bargaining position—and they still got a great pick-up in Marion.)
Kidd to Dallas: Now here's a trade that I just don't get. The fact is you don't give up on a solid, developing young point guard like Devin Harris for an older guy like Jason Kidd unless you think he's the missing piece that puts you over the top. And what I don't get is why the Mavericks think they're that close to the title.
Last time Kidd was traded, to New Jersey, he certainly was that important piece. But he's not as valuable as he was then for two reasons. First, he's older. At 34, with the minutes he's played over the years, I wonder how much longer he can be an effective player. One worrying sign is his field-goal percentage, which is currently the lowest of his career, and this is a guy who's never been a great shooter. To me, a sudden dip in field-goal percentage is a warning sign of athletic decline. But on the other hand, while he's only scoring about 11 points per game, he's right around 10 assists and 8 boards. Clearly his game is not all the way gone.
However, there's another reason Kidd is less valuable, and that's his point guard competition in the West. His biggest competition in the East was maybe Baron Davis, whose team wasn't all that great, and later Chauncey Billups, whose team was. In the West, though, the Suns and Spurs both have fantastic point guards in Nash and Tony Parker, who, you may remember, outplayed Kidd back in the 2003 Finals. (There were rumors the Spurs were going to sign-and-trade Parker for Kidd if the Nets had won the series or if Kidd had badly out-played Parker...but no one really mentioned that after the series for some reason.) And don't forget Chris Paul of the Hornets, who put up 31 points, 11 assists, and nine steals last night in their win over Dallas. The fact is Kidd gives the Mavericks not an edge, but a fighting chance with their point guard match-ups in the playoffs. I think the Mavs, too, will fall short of the Finals, and I don't even like their chances as much as Phoenix's.
Shaq to Phoenix: The Lakers, the team Shaq lead to four NBA Finals and three NBA championships, defeated the Suns last night behind Kobe Bryant's 41 points. O'Neal had 15 points and nine rebounds in 29 minutes of action. This is about as glad as I'm ever going to be about Kobe having a good game: it adds spice to a rivalry that is now a few seasons old.
Anyway, I find my mind changing a little bit about Phoenix's trade for Shaq, which had them send Shawn Marion and reserve guard Marcus Banks to Miami. To me, the trade really comes down to why you think the Suns haven't emerged as true title contenders the last few years.
Do the Suns lack talent, or are they underachievers? With all due respect to Shaquille O'Neal, who is one of the greatest players ever, a Marion-for-Shaq trade doesn't seem to add much talent to the Suns at this stage in those players' careers. Shaq is huge, and I don't think he's completely finished, but Marion is one of the most versatile and athletic players of the decade.
But if the Suns have failed because of chemistry, suddenly adding Shaq makes a ton of sense. For one, he's a good team guy, but it's probably a bigger deal just that he's a gargantuan Hall of Fame-level center. If you're Steve Nash, wouldn't you expect a sudden decrease in elbows and cheap shots with O'Neal prowling the lane behind you? The flip side with Shaq is that he tends to dominate the media attention, but the only Sun I know would have had a problem with that is Shawn Marion.
About a year ago I read Jack McCallum's book, :07 Seconds or Less, about a year he spent with a Phoenix Suns team of recent vintage (2005-2006). It was pretty enjoyable, especially considering how little I like the Suns. One of the things he talked about was how Marion craved being the star of his own team. (You know, sort of like Penny Hardaway or Kobe.) Personally, I can't stand guys like that, and Marion did seem to handle it more professionally than either of the guards Shaq had butted heads with in the past, but I think trading Marion might have been a bit of addition by subtraction for this team.
Ultimately, though, I think the Suns needed more talent and improved chemistry. Shaq should do wonders for the team part, and even on the court, he's a better fit than people think. The question with Shaq is always if he's motivated (and following a trade, he should be), but on the court he can fit in better with this team than people think. If he's playing defense and rebounding, he'll start plenty of fast breaks, and he gives the team an option in the halfcourt offense, which they'll need even more come playoff time. But look at the talent side. Unfortunately, the Suns still don't have an answer for some of the franchise players out West, like Tim Duncan and Kobe. Also, their "name" players-like Steve Nash and Amare Stoudemire-are all limited in some way. Nash, for example, is a gamer, a fantastic passer, and a very good scoring option, but can't rebound and doesn't defend very well. Put it all together and I don't see them making the Finals.
(One more point about the trade: keep in mind that Shaq has always benefited from having some extra motivation...or, less politely, sometimes he plays like he needs a kick in the butt. The fact is he didn't seem too pleased in Miami this year (just check his stats), which made him more valuable to not Miami than to Miami, if that makes sense, and which put the Heat in a poor bargaining position—and they still got a great pick-up in Marion.)
Kidd to Dallas: Now here's a trade that I just don't get. The fact is you don't give up on a solid, developing young point guard like Devin Harris for an older guy like Jason Kidd unless you think he's the missing piece that puts you over the top. And what I don't get is why the Mavericks think they're that close to the title.
Last time Kidd was traded, to New Jersey, he certainly was that important piece. But he's not as valuable as he was then for two reasons. First, he's older. At 34, with the minutes he's played over the years, I wonder how much longer he can be an effective player. One worrying sign is his field-goal percentage, which is currently the lowest of his career, and this is a guy who's never been a great shooter. To me, a sudden dip in field-goal percentage is a warning sign of athletic decline. But on the other hand, while he's only scoring about 11 points per game, he's right around 10 assists and 8 boards. Clearly his game is not all the way gone.
However, there's another reason Kidd is less valuable, and that's his point guard competition in the West. His biggest competition in the East was maybe Baron Davis, whose team wasn't all that great, and later Chauncey Billups, whose team was. In the West, though, the Suns and Spurs both have fantastic point guards in Nash and Tony Parker, who, you may remember, outplayed Kidd back in the 2003 Finals. (There were rumors the Spurs were going to sign-and-trade Parker for Kidd if the Nets had won the series or if Kidd had badly out-played Parker...but no one really mentioned that after the series for some reason.) And don't forget Chris Paul of the Hornets, who put up 31 points, 11 assists, and nine steals last night in their win over Dallas. The fact is Kidd gives the Mavericks not an edge, but a fighting chance with their point guard match-ups in the playoffs. I think the Mavs, too, will fall short of the Finals, and I don't even like their chances as much as Phoenix's.
Comments
The Mavs' deal makes even less sense - they not only gave up Harris but a bunch of players and picks as well, again without chaning the core of that team. The real problem with the Mavs is that they blew a world championship against the Heat two years ago and then got exposed by the Warriors in the first round last year. That trend has obviously taken its toll on the already-fragile psyche of Dirk Nowitzki, who even with the addition of Kidd is the key player on that team. So the core of guys who couldn't get it done has remained the same, and they aren't really any better off.