Some of my most loyal readers have asked when I'm doing my NFL preview this year. You guys now I did some preview stuff last year, right? And that I said the Chargers were going to suck?
Anyway, the answer is: right now. Rather than go through each team individually, I just want to focus on some key points.
1. It's the same old story, but New England and Indianapolis are the class of the NFL.
It's actually a fresh story to include Indianapolis in that class, as far as I'm concerned, but they obviously belong after last year's championship. Also, Peyton Manning looked terrific Thursday night, just devastating the Saints' defense. That's not necessarily impressive all by itself-remember how the Bears tore apart the Saints in last year's playoffs. However, I feel confident saying Manning is not a one-game wonder.
New England, of course, belongs in similarly vaunted territory before their season starts. Their offense upgraded with Randy Moss, one of the most breathtaking performers in league history. The team and superstar quarterback Tom Brady come into this year with something to prove, which has always been music to Pats fans' ears. My main concern is the number of games the Patriots play every year. Going deep into every postseason has stuffed almost an extra year of wear into the careers of guys like Brady. That's why I hesitate to hand them the trophy quite yet.
(By the way, New England at Indianapolis is November 4th.)
That's really it. Go ahead, name another team we have to respect as a contender right out of the gate.
2. A friend of mine keeps asking me: what's my NFC pick?
My NFC pick is nearly meaningless, because the AFC entrant should be king. But I keep saying Carolina.
Why? Look at their records in the John Fox era.
Basically, they play about .500 in even-numbered years, then go 11-5 and make deep playoff runs in odd years. 2003 ended with a trip to the Super Bowl. 2005 ended with an appearance in the NFC Championship game in Seattle, which was pretty impressive considering they were on their 10th-string running back when that game rolled around.
Now I don't really know that Carolina will run through the conference and go to the Super Bowl, but I think they deserve to be mentioned.
3. The Falcons will be better without Michael Vick? Not in your dreams.
Dog-lovers everywhere would love it if the noble Falcons soared without their quarterback, Mike Vick, and his shocking antics off the field. (That was in bad taste and I do apologize.) But sorry, people: your hopes and dreams are resting on the right arm of Joey Harrington. In other words, keep dreaming.
People forget this, because they hate him now, but Vick is a pretty good quarterback. Not great, not a Hall of Famer, but pretty good. Vick threw for 20 touchdowns against just 13 picks last year, and ran for more than a thousand yards. Yes, his completion percentage could have been higher, but some people act like the Falcons are a great team that just had a bad quarterback. I don't see Harrington as an improvement on Vick.
4. The AFC West is anyone's game this year. Anyone but Oakland's.
Some folks have noticed that Oakland's defense put up a real fight last year, finishing third in yardage against. Fabulous! In other news, they went 2-14 with that defense. So don't get too excited yet.
That's not all, though. Discussions of Oakland's offense this year will no longer include the words, "bed and breakfast". Credit where it's due: there's no way the new coaching staff will be worse than the old, and Daunte Culpepper is potentially a major step up at quarterback. But the Raiders sucked for a million reasons last year, and-as you'd expect-many of those reasons still exist.
5. What about Kansas City?
The Chiefs were a playoff team last year. They elected to go home quickly rather than just start their good quarterback, though. Now they're ready to rely just as heavily on Larry Johnson, who carried a huge workload last year. IF he stays healthy, they have a shot in the division.
6. San Diego?
As far as disappointing lifer coaches go, I like Marty Schottenheimer more than Norv Turner. I really wish the Chargers would have brought the same team back for another run but, sadly, they elected to shake it up.
That said, at least three Chargers (LaDainian Tomlinson, Antonio Gates, and Shawne Merriman) can claim to be the best in the league at their respective positions. (With Eli Manning, it could have been four.) Though I don't really root for other teams in Denver's division, I hope we don't look back on this team as one of the all-time great missed opportunities. I think they're the favorites in the AFC West.
7. Denver?
I'm more puzzled about this Denver team than any in a while. They be good, or they could take Jay Cutler's 2-3 pace and run with it for a whole season. I just don't know.
Running back Travis Henry is a terrific acquisition and should be a weapon out of the backfield all year long. Dré Bly is another newcomer and, I think, a terrific fit opposite All-World corner Champ Bailey. On the other hand, the Broncos lost Al Wilson and Jake Plummer.
Probably the most interesting subplot is how the team will respond to the tragic deaths of Darrent Williams and Damien Nash in the offseason. Star receiver Javon Walker was with Williams when he died. I wonder how Walker and Plummer would have bonded this year. Plummer was good friends with his former Arizona Cardinals teammate Pat Tillman, who was killed in Afghanistan.
It's been reported that Walker is more motivated than ever this year, in football and in life. I can't remember thinking even once last year, though, that Walker needed to play better. He was off the charts already. It's really just a sad situation, but I don't think the Broncos will over- or under-perform because of their losses.
Besides, there are so many questions yet to be answered. How will Cutler play in a full season as quarterback? Can Bailey possibly be that good again? (He can, and he will.) Will the defense wear down again?
I think I'm leaning towards a 10-6 finish, but maybe I'm just getting too excited for tomorrow...
8. What other AFC teams should be good?
I've yet to mention the New York Jets or Baltimore Ravens, both playoff teams last year. The Jets were, in my opinion, ridiculously overrated last year. 10-6 is nice, but it doesn't make your coach one of the game's elites. Could they sneak back into the playoffs? Sure, but I'd bet against it.
The Ravens were 13-3 last year behind a fantastic defense and one of my favorite quarterbacks of 1999, Steve McNair. Two division opponents, the Cincinnati Bengals and Pittsburgh Steelers, had weird seasons and finished 8-8 last year. I think any of those three teams can take the North, and I think any other can take a wild-card spot. If I had to guess, I'd say the Steelers and Ravens will make the playoffs.
9. The NFC has some noteworthy teams, right?
The Saints got destroyed on Thursday, but I'm not too worried. Maybe as a Broncos fan, I've just become immune to Indianapolis' blowouts. It is odd they couldn't do anything offensively the other night. Sure, the Colts won the Super Bowl, but it wasn't on the strength of their defense. I think the game just kind of snowballed on them and doesn't mean they'll go 5-11. The Saints should still be good. But their last two games (against Indy and against the Bears in the playoffs) make me think they're not real champonship contenders.
The Cowboys were only 9-7 last year, sort of shocking considering the immense hype around them. I think Tony Romo can recover from his botched hold. But...but...but...this team went from Bill Parcells to Wade Phillips. Sometimes players really respond to a new coach after a disciplinarian leaves, but I don't think the team actually gets any better, if that makes any sense. Even if their record improves, the Cowboys won't be any more of a threat in the postseason. And how Phillips will handle having T.O. on his team? Poorly, maybe? Could it be poorly?
The Bears play in a pretty easy division. Lovie Smith's a fine coach and a good public leader. Brian Urlacher's a well-known force. Devin Hester cannot be contained in the return game. Rex Grossman has more room for improvement than almost anybody. They really should make it back to the playoffs.
The Seattle Seahawks went to the Super Bowl in early 2006, then faltered a little last year as Shaun Alexander and Matt Hasselbeck fought through injuries. That backfield is so talented, though, that they'll be a force if both stay healthy. A force by NFC standards, anyway.
10. Is this Brett Favre's last year?
You know, Brett Favre can play forever for all I care. I don't get why he's the laughingstock of the league at this point, I really don't. Have his skills declined? Sure. That's what happens when you get older. It's not really that shameful.
John Elway got to retire on top, but even the best of the best don't usually get to do that. Jerry Rice had a couple of 800-yard years in San Francisco, then was cut and allowed to play for a team in basically the same city. Dan Marino left after a humiliating 62-7 playoff defeat against the Jaguars, who weren't even really that good to begin with. Rice's quarterbacks, Joe Montana and Steve Young, didn't exactly leave the game on their own terms.
Favre's not as good as he once was-who is?-but he's not the disgrace people make him out to be. Seeing the grey-haired Favre get choked up at the end of the Packers' last game a year ago was probably my favorite moment of the while season. I don't think he "deserves" to go out with another Lombardi or anything, but I hope he gets to leave on a good note.
Anyway, the answer is: right now. Rather than go through each team individually, I just want to focus on some key points.
1. It's the same old story, but New England and Indianapolis are the class of the NFL.
It's actually a fresh story to include Indianapolis in that class, as far as I'm concerned, but they obviously belong after last year's championship. Also, Peyton Manning looked terrific Thursday night, just devastating the Saints' defense. That's not necessarily impressive all by itself-remember how the Bears tore apart the Saints in last year's playoffs. However, I feel confident saying Manning is not a one-game wonder.
New England, of course, belongs in similarly vaunted territory before their season starts. Their offense upgraded with Randy Moss, one of the most breathtaking performers in league history. The team and superstar quarterback Tom Brady come into this year with something to prove, which has always been music to Pats fans' ears. My main concern is the number of games the Patriots play every year. Going deep into every postseason has stuffed almost an extra year of wear into the careers of guys like Brady. That's why I hesitate to hand them the trophy quite yet.
(By the way, New England at Indianapolis is November 4th.)
That's really it. Go ahead, name another team we have to respect as a contender right out of the gate.
2. A friend of mine keeps asking me: what's my NFC pick?
My NFC pick is nearly meaningless, because the AFC entrant should be king. But I keep saying Carolina.
Why? Look at their records in the John Fox era.
Basically, they play about .500 in even-numbered years, then go 11-5 and make deep playoff runs in odd years. 2003 ended with a trip to the Super Bowl. 2005 ended with an appearance in the NFC Championship game in Seattle, which was pretty impressive considering they were on their 10th-string running back when that game rolled around.
Now I don't really know that Carolina will run through the conference and go to the Super Bowl, but I think they deserve to be mentioned.
3. The Falcons will be better without Michael Vick? Not in your dreams.
Dog-lovers everywhere would love it if the noble Falcons soared without their quarterback, Mike Vick, and his shocking antics off the field. (That was in bad taste and I do apologize.) But sorry, people: your hopes and dreams are resting on the right arm of Joey Harrington. In other words, keep dreaming.
People forget this, because they hate him now, but Vick is a pretty good quarterback. Not great, not a Hall of Famer, but pretty good. Vick threw for 20 touchdowns against just 13 picks last year, and ran for more than a thousand yards. Yes, his completion percentage could have been higher, but some people act like the Falcons are a great team that just had a bad quarterback. I don't see Harrington as an improvement on Vick.
4. The AFC West is anyone's game this year. Anyone but Oakland's.
Some folks have noticed that Oakland's defense put up a real fight last year, finishing third in yardage against. Fabulous! In other news, they went 2-14 with that defense. So don't get too excited yet.
That's not all, though. Discussions of Oakland's offense this year will no longer include the words, "bed and breakfast". Credit where it's due: there's no way the new coaching staff will be worse than the old, and Daunte Culpepper is potentially a major step up at quarterback. But the Raiders sucked for a million reasons last year, and-as you'd expect-many of those reasons still exist.
5. What about Kansas City?
The Chiefs were a playoff team last year. They elected to go home quickly rather than just start their good quarterback, though. Now they're ready to rely just as heavily on Larry Johnson, who carried a huge workload last year. IF he stays healthy, they have a shot in the division.
6. San Diego?
As far as disappointing lifer coaches go, I like Marty Schottenheimer more than Norv Turner. I really wish the Chargers would have brought the same team back for another run but, sadly, they elected to shake it up.
That said, at least three Chargers (LaDainian Tomlinson, Antonio Gates, and Shawne Merriman) can claim to be the best in the league at their respective positions. (With Eli Manning, it could have been four.) Though I don't really root for other teams in Denver's division, I hope we don't look back on this team as one of the all-time great missed opportunities. I think they're the favorites in the AFC West.
7. Denver?
I'm more puzzled about this Denver team than any in a while. They be good, or they could take Jay Cutler's 2-3 pace and run with it for a whole season. I just don't know.
Running back Travis Henry is a terrific acquisition and should be a weapon out of the backfield all year long. Dré Bly is another newcomer and, I think, a terrific fit opposite All-World corner Champ Bailey. On the other hand, the Broncos lost Al Wilson and Jake Plummer.
Probably the most interesting subplot is how the team will respond to the tragic deaths of Darrent Williams and Damien Nash in the offseason. Star receiver Javon Walker was with Williams when he died. I wonder how Walker and Plummer would have bonded this year. Plummer was good friends with his former Arizona Cardinals teammate Pat Tillman, who was killed in Afghanistan.
It's been reported that Walker is more motivated than ever this year, in football and in life. I can't remember thinking even once last year, though, that Walker needed to play better. He was off the charts already. It's really just a sad situation, but I don't think the Broncos will over- or under-perform because of their losses.
Besides, there are so many questions yet to be answered. How will Cutler play in a full season as quarterback? Can Bailey possibly be that good again? (He can, and he will.) Will the defense wear down again?
I think I'm leaning towards a 10-6 finish, but maybe I'm just getting too excited for tomorrow...
8. What other AFC teams should be good?
I've yet to mention the New York Jets or Baltimore Ravens, both playoff teams last year. The Jets were, in my opinion, ridiculously overrated last year. 10-6 is nice, but it doesn't make your coach one of the game's elites. Could they sneak back into the playoffs? Sure, but I'd bet against it.
The Ravens were 13-3 last year behind a fantastic defense and one of my favorite quarterbacks of 1999, Steve McNair. Two division opponents, the Cincinnati Bengals and Pittsburgh Steelers, had weird seasons and finished 8-8 last year. I think any of those three teams can take the North, and I think any other can take a wild-card spot. If I had to guess, I'd say the Steelers and Ravens will make the playoffs.
9. The NFC has some noteworthy teams, right?
The Saints got destroyed on Thursday, but I'm not too worried. Maybe as a Broncos fan, I've just become immune to Indianapolis' blowouts. It is odd they couldn't do anything offensively the other night. Sure, the Colts won the Super Bowl, but it wasn't on the strength of their defense. I think the game just kind of snowballed on them and doesn't mean they'll go 5-11. The Saints should still be good. But their last two games (against Indy and against the Bears in the playoffs) make me think they're not real champonship contenders.
The Cowboys were only 9-7 last year, sort of shocking considering the immense hype around them. I think Tony Romo can recover from his botched hold. But...but...but...this team went from Bill Parcells to Wade Phillips. Sometimes players really respond to a new coach after a disciplinarian leaves, but I don't think the team actually gets any better, if that makes any sense. Even if their record improves, the Cowboys won't be any more of a threat in the postseason. And how Phillips will handle having T.O. on his team? Poorly, maybe? Could it be poorly?
The Bears play in a pretty easy division. Lovie Smith's a fine coach and a good public leader. Brian Urlacher's a well-known force. Devin Hester cannot be contained in the return game. Rex Grossman has more room for improvement than almost anybody. They really should make it back to the playoffs.
The Seattle Seahawks went to the Super Bowl in early 2006, then faltered a little last year as Shaun Alexander and Matt Hasselbeck fought through injuries. That backfield is so talented, though, that they'll be a force if both stay healthy. A force by NFC standards, anyway.
10. Is this Brett Favre's last year?
You know, Brett Favre can play forever for all I care. I don't get why he's the laughingstock of the league at this point, I really don't. Have his skills declined? Sure. That's what happens when you get older. It's not really that shameful.
John Elway got to retire on top, but even the best of the best don't usually get to do that. Jerry Rice had a couple of 800-yard years in San Francisco, then was cut and allowed to play for a team in basically the same city. Dan Marino left after a humiliating 62-7 playoff defeat against the Jaguars, who weren't even really that good to begin with. Rice's quarterbacks, Joe Montana and Steve Young, didn't exactly leave the game on their own terms.
Favre's not as good as he once was-who is?-but he's not the disgrace people make him out to be. Seeing the grey-haired Favre get choked up at the end of the Packers' last game a year ago was probably my favorite moment of the while season. I don't think he "deserves" to go out with another Lombardi or anything, but I hope he gets to leave on a good note.
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