It's been just over a week, but I still can't believe the truth: the Mastermind, Mike Shanahan, is out as coach-and-everything-else of the Denver Broncos.
It's going to be WEIRD having a different coach on the sidelines next season. Anyway, I don't know where to start, so we'll start with a missive from a (former) reader:
So, what do you think of the Shanahan firing? What, if any, impact did Shanahan’s promise in training camp to not miss the playoffs this year have on [Broncos owner Pat] Bowlen’s decision? Do you think Bowlen attempted to compromise (like remove Shanahan’s personnel responsibilities and having him be just the Head Coach) with Shanahan and he refused to relinquish any of his power? In the press conference, it seemed like Bowlen was reluctant to let Shanahan leave, so it would seem logical to me that he would have tried to keep him with a reduced level of responsibility. Anyway, what’s your take?
First, Bowlen said the disappointing end to the season didn't weigh all that heavily into his decision, which is bizarre, but then again he also said he never believed in having the same coach forever, even though I could have sworn he said Shanahan could coach the Broncos as long as he wants. Well, whatever. I don't think the coach failing on his pledge to make the playoffs was a deal-breaker, because I imagine Bowlen feels the same way about making the playoffs as I do: it's not that big of a deal.
Honestly, does it really matter if you're the sixth seed or the first team out? If you're a low seed, you're not a real championship threat ('05 Steelers excepted, obv.), and I don't see what's so great about losing one more road game. A co-worker pointed out the other day that many players probably don't even want to make the playoffs. I could believe that.
Second question: did Bowlen offer Shanahan a demotion, meaning a cut in his personnel duties, that would have meant Mike could stay on as coach? I've heard this mused on a few times, but I've seen nothing to indicate it's real. I know people want to think Shanahan is a power-crazed lunatic, but I don't think that happened. Remember, the Broncos got rid of GM Ted Sundquist in March; it's doubtful that they would have ceded all power to Shanahan just to take much of it away ten months later. Besides, it's not all that good of a deal to be given. And I think Bowlen was emotional because the two men really are friends.
My other thoughts are:
1. Switching to Jay Cutler when he did cost Shanahan his job. Those of you who used to read this blog know I'm not the biggest Cutler fan in the world, but my point isn't that Cutler sucks. (He doesn't, and in some ways his attitude is kind of fun.) But look back a few years. The Broncos were a home game away from going to the Super Bowl before being upset by the Steelers, a loss for which QB Jake Plummer took an inordinate share of the blame. The next year, despite the addition of Javon Walker, Plummer just gets off to a terrible start statistically. However, the Broncos open the season 7-2. After a two-game slide makes them a still-playoff-bound 7-4, Plummer gets the hook, and in comes the rookie. And the Broncos miss the playoffs. The next year, the Broncos miss the playoffs. The next year, the Broncos miss the playoffs.
By now Plummer may have been done playing anyway, but I bet we could have made the playoffs with him in '06, and possibly again in '07 or this year. That would have been enough to keep Shanny's rep up and his job security intact, I think.
2. Think hiring a defensive coach solves all our problems? You're an idiot. I really, really hope the Broncos don't follow up the gutsy Shanahan (remember his going for 2 in the first game against the Chargers this year?) with one of those play-it-safe defensive minds, who focuses on field position and field goals. Because that kind of football is friggin' boring.
But that's not why it's no panacea. The Broncos' offense is good because of Shanahan. If he's gone, we can't just expect the O to remain good next year. (Better luck with backfield injuries probably would make us better, but you can't just assume the scheme will stay the same.) And, oh yeah, the offense wasn't really so good that it can be neglected. Over the last three games, when the team was in a win-and-they're-in situation, the Broncos averaged just 18 points per game.
Besides, we've gone through a lot of defensive coordinators over the years and none have made a real lasting difference. We don't just need a change in attitude, we need some new talented players back there.
3. Are the Broncos going for a big-name coach? Apparently not. It's funny, during the Chargers game I was thinking about how other fanbases get excited during the off-season to see their new coach in action, and how we never have that. I didn't think we were going to have it, nor did I envy their position, but when I saw Shanahan was fired, I figured we'd go for a big name. Like maybe Bill Cowher, whose star has risen to dizzying heights ever since he, you know, stopped coaching. (That kind of doesn't make sense to me.) Or maybe Bill Parcells, not that it's 1985 and I'm pulling for that.
But to be fair, there aren't many coaches who can match marquees with Shanahan, and apparently the Broncos know it. Their interviews so far are a total snore-fest, with guys like Jason Garrett on the list.
Also, and I hesitate to say this, but one candidate is Rick Dennison, the Broncos' current offensive coordinator who has worked with Shanahan for years. Dennison may well be a heck of a coach, but I don't get why he kept getting every opportunity that opened in Denver. He was special teams coach during the Super Bowl years. When Alex Gibbs, coach of our outstanding offensive lines of that glorious era, left, Dennison got his job. When Gary Kubiak, one of the best coordinators in the game, left to coach the Texans, Dennison got his job. (This was just after the Broncos' playoff loss to Pittsburgh and just before Plummer's nose dive.) In both cases I felt the unit Dennison took over failed to live up to its previous standards. Granted, he was filling gigantic shoes in both cases and obviously Mike Shanahan knows a million times more about coaches than I do.
But if anyone on Denver's current staff deserves an opportunity, then for my money it's Bobby Turner, the team's long-time running backs coach. I would love to see him get an interview or just some recognition. Seems fair to me, because our running backs have been very good for a long time. (Plus he's black and fulfills Rooney Rule obligations, so it's a win-win, though the Broncos have already interviewed a minority candidate.)
4. If you're the Chiefs, Seahawks, or Chargers, you could do a lot worse than firing your coach and hiring Mike Shanahan. That probably goes for about 25 other teams, and I'm aware the Chargers just beat us out for the division in spectacular fashion. Just keep in mind how much Shanahan loved crushing the Raiders after he'd been fired there and re-joined us. I'm sure he can't wait to stick it to Denver twice a season; thus the rest of the AFC West should jump on the chance to get him. What team wouldn't want to start each season with four wins?
9 comments:
First of all, I just want to say that's it's really great to have HPS back in action and I really hope it's here to stay.
I think it's interesting how much hype Spagnuolo is getting. If the Giants hadn't gone on an ubbelievable run during a four game strech in the playoffs last year, Spagnuolo's name wouldn't even be considered.
Jason Garrett has done little with one of the most talented offenses in the league. Granted Romo sucks under pressure, but why aren't they running the ball more and setting up more play-action passes for T.O. and Williams? Anyway, I don't think Garrett really deserves consideration for arguably the best head coaching position available.
Why isn't Bowlen interviewing Marty Schottenheimer. Does he have something against proven winners? I know he's getting pretty old, but I think the Broncos could use more of a disciplinarian-type coach who won't put up with players being late for the bus before the most important game of the year. (You probably are already aware that several players nearly missed the bus to the airport before the last game of the year.)
Also, I've heard rumors that John Elway's name has been mentioned as a possible GM for the Broncos. Have you heard anything about that? Do you think Elway would make a good GM?
Again, great to have you back!
Welcome back, HPS! It is good finally to exit the wilderness.
I tend to agree that benching Jake Plummer was a decisive point in Shanny's tenure that ultimately led him to lose his job. It's not so much that Plummer was a great player or that Cutler isn't (he is in the Pro Bowl, after all). But after that point the team accomplished precisely nothing, and this season collapsed historically. If nothing else, it shows that Shanny lost the team somewhere along the way and couldn't get it back.
All of that speaks to a larger point - the trouble with Shanny's tenure wasn't his game day coaching. It was his personnel decisions. We have the talent of a 5 or 6 win team, and Shanny coached us up to 8 wins. But we only had the talent of a 5-6 win team because of the pieces Shanny assembled. So he ultimately had become too powerful and needed to go. For that reason, it is almost as intriguing to me to consider who the new GM will be, and how he will work with the new coach.
Bowlen did say that Shanny could coach us for life - but I respect him valuing winning enough to go back on his own word.
I agree that Cowher is completely overrated, and I am glad Bowlen has chosen to pass. I don't know who else is really out there, but promoting someone internal makes a lot of sense if we want to continue our current style of play.
As for Shanny, he will definitely land somewhere else eventually. Scarier to me than the Chiefs would be the Cowboys - in Dallas he would be freed of player personnel responsibilities, could focus on game day coaching, and might be able to complete the development of Tony Romo. Scary thought because we already hear WAY too much about that team.
And keep up the comeback!
And what about the Duke for head coach? We wouldn't even have to watch anymore because we already know we would go undefeated for time immemorial.
Marty Schottenheimer? It's tough to tell on the Internet, but you are joking, right? The Broncos have eaten his lunch for years. He is a good coach and was great for the Chargers, but I hope we can find someone better.
Anyway, I don't think discipline is really a Shanahan problem, one bus incident or not. (It's so hard to tell how common that is because stuff like that NEVER comes out if a team is winning.) He seems pretty good at keeping his guys in line. As John suggests, he may have lost the team in other ways (with some of his decision-making, etc.).
I think Elway could be a fantastic GM. Elway was, I believe, very involved in his role with the Colorado Crush, who won an Arena League title in 2005. He has experience and did well, which is one reason I don't think you should compare his prospects with other great players who've been poor GMs, like Michael Jordan.
John, interesting that you say we were a 5 or 6-win team, talent-wise. I'm not sure I'd put us quite that low, but as disappointing as the collapse was, I definitely don't think you can say we underachieved by going .500 with this roster. Also, what I should have mentioned about not getting a defensive coach is that our defense may improve just by virtue of Shanahan not stocking its shelves anymore.
Not to nit-pick, but I don't think a problem is Shanahan becoming too powerful, just that he started doing poorly in the GM role. Back in our first Super Bowl-winning season, SI did an article that mentioned, for example, how Shanahan could monitor all over the facility and hear what players were saying. One of the things I like about Bowlen is that he doesn't seem to care what he spends or who gets the credit; he just wants to win. I think Shanahan's authority was no problem when the team was producing.
And yeah, I'm terrified about Shanahan going to Dallas.
I guess when I say Shanny became too powerful, I mean that he had too much say in player personnel matters. I still think there is something to the suggestion that he refused to take a reduced role. Technically, someone else was the GM (albeit a pushover) - so it was worse that Shanny was making the personnel decisions that should have been someone else's job, and I think there was no easy way to take that back from him.
I'd love to see Elway back as the GM. It's not only his Crush experience that proves he is a great judge of talent - I seem to remember his recommendations working out time and time again when he was a player. And he would have instant credibility with the players and fans.
i think you should permanently hang up the retirement schpiel. so much to talk about these days.
i was in shock as soon as i heard. and i honestly thought "man, this would be the IDEAL HPS" topic.
i'm not convinced that shanahan was that great of a coach. to me, he seemed like a capable guy at the right place at the right time. evidence of his post-elway figures convinces me of this
Well, actually, someone else wasn't the GM; after Ted Sundquist left in March, no one replaced him in that specific job title. That's why I think it would have been odd to ask Shanahan to step down: they'd just given him increased power a few months before. Besides, he'd made weird roster choices for more than just one season.
I think Elway would be a good personnel guy because, as you suggest, he knows exactly what it takes to become a great player. Jordan should have known the same thing, though he seemed too focused on his own blueprint, like that year they picked up Jared Jeffries and Juan Dixon and other guys who'd been in the Final Four, where of course Jordan's career really got its jumpstart.
David, you're probably right to some degree about Shanahan: it's oversimplifying to say he's still an awesome coach but just turned horrific on the personnel side. That said, I still think he's at least a good coach, better than most in the NFL.
DP, you make an excellent point as always: Shanny hasn't been a great coach post-Elway, although I think he has been a good one. But I think all coaches who brush up against greatness are the beneficiaries of circumstance - what great coach hasn't been in a good situation? Just look at Bill Cowher: he coached the Atlanta Braves of the NFL, got lucky enough to win one, and promptly retired. Now they talk about him like he is the second coming of Vince Lombardi.
I hope Pat Bowlen is reading this blog. Brining in Elway will singlhandedly restore prowess to the franchise.
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