Saturday, April 26, 2008

A weekend without sports

1. Amare Stoudemire after the Suns' loss to the Spurs Friday night put the Suns in a 3-0 series deficit:

'I definitely think we're one of the marquee teams in the league,' Stoudemire said. 'For us to be down 0 and 3 is something I wasn't even thinking about.'

I don't think I use the word "marquee" in quite the same way; I'll assume Stoudemire meant high-quality rather than high-profile. (Otherwise the quote makes no sense.) But with all due respect to Stoudemire and the Suns, why on Earth would they consider themselves one of the top teams in the league?

The Suns can flat-out shoot the rock: the team made over 50% of its shots this year, which is bleep-ing incredible. They were third in the league in scoring. They're talented offensively. But they're also the No. 6 seed in the conference, a conference made up of just 15 teams. In terms of percentile, these are not quite the Navy SEALs we're dealing with here.

I'm all for confidence. But is there any question the Suns have underachieved over the last few seasons, and isn't the attitude that they've already arrived one of the reasons they've disappointed?

If you can't be honest with yourself, and say, "Look, we're not where we want to be", what motivates you to do that extra work in the offseason? What drives you to stay hungry, to keep striving, to keep improving? I don't want to overstate the case; Stoudemire's one of the best in his profession on the entire planet. Still, something's separating him from the Tim Duncans of the world, and it isn't genetic jumping ability.

I've always thought the greatest athletes are man enough to face the truth, even when it hurts. John Elway often said his career could be complete without a Super Bowl win; after the Broncos finally won, he admitted he'd been lying the whole time. The fact is he knew it was important, and he never stopped trying to accomplish that goal. Or compare Stoudemire's quote with Magic Johnson's from the 1991 NBA Finals. The Lakers beat the Bulls in Game One, but the Bulls won the next four to win Michael Jordan's first championship.

After Game Three, Johnson had said it would be a long series: 'Nothing's been decided.' But after Game Four, he was clearly shaken. 'An old-fashioned ass kicking,' he said. 'Never dreamed it would happen.'

(That section comes from David Halberstam's incomparable Playing for Keeps.)

They're both surprised, but Magic can at least admit what's going on. Maybe I'm reading way too much into this, but it helps me understand why we wonder when Amare will live up to his immense talent, while Magic maximized every last drop of his.

* * *

2. Today was the start of the NFL draft, which I've followed pretty closely for several years. (I first remember listening on the radio in 1997, when Denver ended up with a transfer student and potential character risk named Trevor Pryce in the first round.) This year, I couldn't get into it, and sadly I'll admit I have almost no idea who any of the top guys were. (I did enjoy some of the predraft coverage, and especially liked Frank Deford's point about mock drafts.)

In a phone call with a friend this morning we discussed what positions the Broncos might focus on in the draft. My basic conclusion is that they need help everywhere, right? Like we have Champ Bailey, but we could still use more depth at corner. Or we have Jay Cutler, but we could still use someone who can throw. Har de har. Anyway, the Broncos picked up a tackle and a WR/KR/PR. Yes, we need a pass catcher, especially if Brandon Marshall has any hiccups in his recovery. And yeah, we need more skilled offensive linemen, though when I see us take a first-round tackle I think of George Foster. I just hope we picked the right guys.

(Also, as John tipped me to earlier this week, the Broncos traded a conditional pick next year for defensive tackle Dewayne Robertson, who was the fourth pick overall by the Jets five years ago.)

3. Also, Kobe Bryant and the Lakers are still kicking the Nuggets' butts. Carmelo and The Answer were a combined 10-for-38 from the field in Game Three Saturday.

For some reason (probably the draft) I was thinking about Peyton Manning this morning. Specifically, I was thinking how his struggles in big games in college probably foreshadowed his playoff struggles in the NFL. Makes sense, right? If there's a psychological aspect to performance under pressure, as we might assume, it would carry over to the pros, right? (Of course, Peyton overcame and won a Super Bowl eventually.)

The same friend I spoke with this morning once called Carmelo a choker during Melo's first NBA playoffs, and argued Jordan would never have played like that. (I think Carmelo had had a particularly bad first game.) And I was like, no, you're got it all wrong, at his age Carmelo is actually way ahead of Jordan. And he was. Jordan was a key starter on a championship team his freshman year; Carmelo was the superstar on his title team. And then Carmelo was terrific in his rookie year.

I didn't actually expect Carmelo to surpass Jordan as a player or anything, but the man at least had proven clutch credentials. And since then he's hit a bunch of game-winners in the regular season. So why doesn't he rise to the occasion in the NBA playoffs? It can't be nerves, can it? Whatever it was with Manning, he was at least consistent. Carmelo's not. Any explanations?

4. I turned on the TV in the third quarter of the Hawks' upset win over the Celtics tonight, when it was about 77-70 Atlanta. Atlanta was hitting everything, and they were at home, but I thought that if the Celtics could still pull this game out, I had to take them seriously as title contenders. But they didn't even make a run at it, scoring 18 and then 19 in the last two quarters. I don't know, it's just one game, and of course the Celtics will still win the series, but I almost felt like a certain determination was lacking. Maybe my standards are too high, but it's hard to see too many recent champions dropping a first-round game to such an inferior squad like that.

5. I also heard a little teaser for the upcoming Jazz-Rockets game, which included a comparison of Deron Williams and Carlos Boozer to, you guessed it, John Stockton and Karl Malone. I'm sure Jazz fans are obscenely sick of it (like the way I felt when every single Broncos safety was the next Steve Atwater), but I was thinking the same thing while watching the Nuggets play the Jazz two weeks ago.

To me, Boozer and Malone kind of makes sense. Both look muscle-bound, but both are surprisingly quick for their size. Over Boozer's last two years, he's been at about 21 and 11 for the Jazz, which is nice, but keep in mind that in his prime, Malone was a lot more like 27 or 28 and 11. Neither's a great role model; Boozer famously screwed over the Cavs and Malone elbowed David Robinson into the hospital (among other egocentric moves). Boozer is not as versatile as the Mailman, but he's not a bad imitation.

Williams and Stockton I don't see as much. Both can shoot, though I'd give an edge to Stockton there. Both are physical, but with Stockton it was more the cheap-shot elbows, while Williams is more of a bulky, create-contact type of player. From what I've seen, Stockton was a way better passer, but perhaps I've caught Williams on bad days. Also, while playing the Nuggets Williams had a milking for the ages. He got knocked down while driving the lane, but you would have thought he'd had his femur torn out judging from his reaction. I guess my point is he's not Stock and Boozer's not the Mailman, but the new Jazz are still worthy of your hatred.

7 comments:

blaine said...

Great post Mike. I hope you aren't suggesting that Kobe is as good as MJ. Kobe still hasn't won a championship without the aide of the most dominant (at the time) big man in the league. Jordan was able to dominate on teams that were very mediocre without him. Kobe, on the other hand, has struggled.

However, it seems like this year Kobe has changed his approach to the game. I've never seen him so trusting of his teammates before, and so willing to distribute the ball. If he can maintain this attitude throughout the playoffs, they should be considered legitimate title contenders. But, even if Kobe is able to win three more rings with the types of players on his team now, he still won the first three with Shaq so in my mind that clearly makes Jordan better.

Kobe definitely has more range than Jordan, but sometimes I wonder if thats only because Jordan wouldn't take those long shots because he was so good off the dribble and could easily manufacture a higher-percentage shot. Kobe takes a lot of contested 3s just to prove a point when he could easily drive to the hoop.

Anyway, what did you think about Melo admitting that the team quit? I was pretty surprised he said that. He said that he could just sense it sometime in the third period, and if that's true why did he allow that to happen? If he could feel it happening why didn't he start playing harder and get on his teammates for not playing hard? I wish Melo would step up as more of a leader for the Nugs. On a side note, I liked that Melo was guarding Kobe in the 4th and maybe that was his way of showing some leadership...but I doubt it.

Mike said...

I do not think Kobe's as good as MJ. I just think the video is hilarious, plus I love the phrase "swagger jacking" and think it's fitting.

Jordan's title teams weren't quite loaded but had some really good players, especially the second time around with Rodman, who was way better than he is remembered. His early teams sucked, but he didn't carry them to the Finals or anything.

Anyway, percentage-wise from three-point land Bryant barely beats Jordan, 34.0 percent to 32.7. But Jordan hit under 20 percent his first four years, then improved. I think in their primes Bryant does not have a clear edge.

More telling to me is the career FG percentage, where Jordan has a healthy lead (49.7 to 45.3) even though his stats include all his decline years and don't include almost two prime years he spent in baseball. Jordan was over 50 percent for his career when with the Bulls, whereas in each season of Kobe's career Bryant has missed the majority of his shots. I think that says a lot about shot selection, maturity, and greatness.

I don't think the Lakers are legit contenders even if Kobe does pass; I just don't see enough talent around him.

As for Melo, I don't know. I admit I didn't see the game. I'm sure Carmelo was speaking out of frustration. If he feels like the others guy are quitting what can he really do? Yeah, if he was super intense and could intimidate people I guess it would have made sense to get in people's faces, but I don't think he's responsible for the whole team just because he noticed other guys faltering.

I guess I sort of expect Iverson to provide that fire because it's his personality and he's the MVP-winning veteran, but I don't necessarily fault AI either. On the other hand somebody has to step it up, you know?

John said...

The Nuggets:
Yet again, the Nuggets find a way to underperform and disappoint in the playoffs. AI looks like the only guy who is playing with any passion, and everyone else looks like they are trying to get George Karl fired.

I know a guy who played high school ball against Melo in Baltimore, and he said he always thought Melo would melt down in the pros because he lacks focus and work ethic. This guy's explanation for Melo's college success is that he is an enormously talented player, and was just that much better than his college competition. Melo always does seem to rack up big numbers against weaker teams, and the playoffs expose his inability to get it done against better teams.

As for Kobe, I am totally sick of that guy. Where is the Vail sheriff when you need him?

The Broncos:
I was actually encouraged by the Broncos' draft strategy for the first two rounds because they appeared to be drafting based on need, not some amorphous concept of "the best player available." True, we need help everywhere, but we especially need help at O-line and WR, which we addressed to some extent with our first two picks.

But then the strategy totally fell apart in the later rounds. We drafted some no-name CB when Craig Steltz, a decent player at a more crucial position for us (safety) was still on the board. (Chicago took Steltz a few picks later.) And we never drafted a linebacker, even though there is a gaping hole in the middle of our defense.

Thankfully, though, we drafted some no-account RB. Would have hated to miss out on that one.

The Suns:
Yesterday's win notwithstanding, the Suns are far from elite, let alone marquee. I can't wait for them to go away again this year.

But if they fire Mike D'Antoni and the Nuggets fire George Karl, any chance we end up with D'Antoni? Or will we go for a defensive-minded coach this time?

Mike said...

D'Antoni coming back to Denver...hmmm, interesting thought. I know about the rumors but I'll be kind of shocked if he really does get fired from the Suns. The Nuggets might have the most appealing job open (outside of Phoenix), so we ought to at least have a shot. From a career standpoint I don't think he's "better" than Karl, but Karl doesn't seem to be a very good fit for us at this point.

Also, just to point out, since I got on Boston's case for losing a first-round game but not San Antonio's: I think it's different because Phoenix is way more talented than Atlanta. They have a pair of MVPs and an emerging star in Stoudemire. But the Spurs are weird because they do get blown out from time to time.

The theory on Carmelo is interesting. If he really coasted through the NCAAs, then man, that's some serious talent he's got. I do think he suffers from a bit of what Tim Duncan does, which is that he never really looks like he's working hard or super fired-up. Melo has made strides in the league, but still has a long way to go.

Why are the Broncos missing a linebacker? They have Al Wils...oh, right. Disappointing that they missed out on a solid safety--you always need more corners in the AFC, but we're at least okay there now.

And you just watch, John, the Broncos will turn this no-account guy into a player. Anybody can run for a thousand in their system!

John said...

That's a good point about D'Antoni . . . I don't really WANT him as the next coach, but I don't know who else is out there, either. Obviously our strength is on offense, so the ideal coach would know how to maximize our wide-open style while instilling some toughness on the defensive end. D'Antoni only fits half the bill.

It is a strange thing about the Suprs that they occasionally get blown out. I think the explanation is in their style, which depends on dictating the pace to the other team. On the rare occasion they can't do that, an explosive team can make them pay, and they lack the offensive firepower to keep up. In the end, though, they always get it done in the postseason.

The Celtics' loss to the Hawks was bizarre - I think it was a letdown game for Boston - and I am not sure how it bodes for them for the rest of the playoffs. Generally I think it is tough to sweep, no matter how inferior the competition.

Shanny just couldn't let a draft go by without expending a precious pick on the most expendable position on the roster . . . at least this way he guarantees himself a nominal success in the upcoming season when a 5th-rounder goes for 1000 yards.

Mike said...

The blowouts and never repeating are probably the reasons the Spurs never get the credit they deserve. I hope they can pull off the back-to-back this year.

And seriously, who's impressed with 1,000 yards anymore?

John said...

1000 yards isn't very impressive, especially for a Broncos RB. But there is even better news about the guy we drafted in the 5th round: he apparently has some serious knee problems. Since we are stockpiling bad knees on this year's roster, I wonder how long before Mark Schlereth announces his comeback.