The Eastern Conference
So far, I've been wrong about the Boston Celtics. They've been fantastic this year, finishing 66-16 and outscoring opponents by more than ten points a game. Only three other teams have a home record better than Boston's road record. The Celtics finished seven games ahead of the No. 2 seed; seven games are all that separates No. 1 from No. 8 in the West. Assuming they stay healthy, they should make the Finals. (Having said all that, I completely disagree with the Sports Guy, who said Kevin Garnett deserves the MVP award.)
Other potential contenders include the Detroit Pistons, who at 59-23 also had a better record than anyone out West. They have the second-best point differential in the league behind Boston. Because they've been together so long, they've been overlooked all year. The Eastern Conference Finals should be sweet, but I still think Boston is better. The Celtics won the season series with the Pistons 2-1.
Cleveland and Orlando are interesting, but there's not enough talent around their respective stars for these teams to be considered realistic contenders.
My winner? The Celtics.
The Western Conference
The West has been run by the Spurs, Mavericks, and, to a lesser extent, the Suns the last few years. But there's been turnover at the top. The Spurs captured the number three seed, but the Suns and Mavericks will start on the road as the respective 6 and 7 seeds.
Instead the top seed is the L.A. Lakers, whose star demanded a trade before the season because he, like all of us, assumed the team would struggle. Instead this Lakers squad looks like Kobe Bryant's best chance yet to silence his critics. But he's still a lone wolf because his supporting cast is flawed (and because he runs Hall of Famers out of town). Good thing Kobe's durable and smart enough to stay out of foul trouble, because no one else can carry the offense for long if he's out. And though the Lakers haven't been this good for a while, remember that Kobe is one of the very small number of stars who have proven they can handle championship pressure.
No. 2 is the New Orleans Hornets. I simply don't think the Hornets are ready, though I'm excited to watch star point guard Chris Paul in the postseason. Paul is just 22 and is considered by many a leading MVP candidate. The Hornets also have two of my favorites in reserve guard Bobby Jackson and perimeter shooter Peja Stojakovic.
The three-seed Spurs are the defending NBA champions, though they're losing to the Suns right now. The Spurs appeared to be putting it together with a late-season eight-game winning streak, but suffered big losses to Utah, Phoenix, and the Lakers down the stretch. However, they have a proven core of clutch players who are terrific together. In Tim Duncan and Tony Parker the team has two Finals MVP winners.
Fourth-seed Utah is terrific at home and should dispatch the fifth-seed Rockets with ease, but I don't expect much after the first round. Phoenix at No. 6 is loaded with talent and could surprise, but have they ever lived up to their regular-season billing? The seventh-seeded Mavs are dead in the water. I expect the No. 8 seed Nuggets to make things interesting against the Lakers with Carmelo Anthony and Allen Iverson. I'm tempted to say Lakers in six, but I worry that I'm underestimating Denver. If they play to their potential they could win the series, but the Nuggets are the ultimate roller coaster team.
Because of their clutch history and depth, I expect once again that the Spurs will win the Western Conference.
Way-early Finals Prediction
The Celtics put together a much more impressive regular season. So what? Well, the Spurs finishing third could be a sign of old age or rust. And it's true, many of the key Spurs are twelve months older than they were at the start of last year's playoffs.
But the Finals often come down to which team has the best go-to guy down the stretch. Most championship teams have a leader like Michael Jordan, Hakeem Olajuwon, Shaq or, yes, Tim Duncan. To me, no star on the Celtics has proven he can perform under those circumstances yet. Garnett hasn't, Pierce hasn't, and Ray Allen definitely hasn't. Can team play overcome individual brilliance? Sure, but the Spurs are a pretty sweet team, too. San Antonio in seven.
Comments
I think the Nugs could pull off the upset, but they will need to shut down Kobe. I don't think any of our guards can play him one on one, since they are 6 foot nothing and Kobe is 6'7" he will ba able to get any jump shot he wants. I think they should try playing a zone D like they did a few times towards the end of the year when they were making their playoff run. More than anything, it's going to take much more effort than they usually put forth on the defensive end if they hope to have a chance of winning the series.
Yeah, anyway, so the Nuggets got destroyed yesterday...positively annihilated...so maybe I was way off. I don't think I'd made Kobe taking jump shots—he still seems a little streaky from outside to me—but he could also post up or drive on our small guards at will. It'd be sweet if Carmelo was the kind of player to take on those challenges, they way Kobe started on AI, but it's not worth getting him in foul trouble. And man, were you right about the defense!
Besides, since he's a post player I don't think anyone would have faulted him for missing it, so it's kind of all gravy taking a shot like that.