Plummer to Cutler

I’m not even going to bother with a link-everyone who’s reading this already knows Jay Cutler will start for the Broncos Sunday against Seattle. What you don’t know is whether it’s a good move, and that’s where I come in. Here are some arguments for and against the change that I’ve either heard or made up:

Pro No. 1: A young quarterback can revitalize an offense. Look at the Dallas Cowboys and Tony Romo this year. (Yes, I know I already used that quarterback change as an example of what NOT to do. Shut up.) Once Bledsoe came out, the team was reborn-the offense especially.

Yes, Bledsoe’s ceiling was more established than Plummer’s. But we know what Jake can and can’t do. While Cutler’s not any more mobile than Plummer, he’s got a better arm.

Or so I’m told-I didn’t really watch the preseason. But two things jump out at anyone watching the Broncos try to move the ball this year:

1. Wow, Javon Walker is good; and,

2. Why don’t they throw to him on every play?

Plummer can throw deep-it was a huge mark in his favor when he replaced Braindead Brian-but the coaching staff clearly doesn’t trust him to air it out every play. If Cutler can gain that trust...look out. I know Walker's going to hold up his end.

Con No. 1: Why wait until now? Naturally, the team didn’t bench Jake the Snake because they got off to a great start at 7-2. Now they’ve lost two in a row, and it makes some sense to reevaluate things, though Plummer’s played at the same low level the whole season. Why do it now? Is this a panic move destined to fail, or have the Broncos considered this all a long? The Broncos are still right in the postseason hunt-they'd be in the playoffs, in fact, if the season ended today-and that makes the timing really odd.

If the Broncos really thought Cutler was a cut above (I’m sorry), he would have been starting the whole time. Don’t believe me? In 1999 Mike Shanahan happily benched veteran Bubby Brister for unproven second-year man Brian Griese right before the season began. That didn’t really work out, but the coach wasn’t afraid to try. Perhaps the whole Griese experience has made the Broncos’ head coach gun-shy. I doubt it, though, because he still plays who he wants to play, regardless of what fans and media believe. That suggests that this move isn’t borne of desperation.

Pro No. 2: There’s still time to turn it around. So the timing of the switch-eleven games into the season-is peculiar. On the flip side of that coin, the Broncos still have five games left to play. While you’d expect Cutler, a rookie, to have at least one bad game in that stretch, playing him now gives him enough time to relax a little by the time the playoffs roll around (assuming we're in).

Con No. 2: Turn what around? Yes, Jake Plummer’s had a bad year-and we’re getting to that-but the Broncos’ offensive struggles are hardly limited to the quarterback. The running game is solid, though, once again, neither runner has really claimed the job as his own. The passing game has exactly one effective target-yes, that’s partly Plummer’s fault, but the aerial attack is clearly an afterthought personnel-wise.

Worst of all is the play of the offensive line. The run game is very good statistically, though it feels inconsistent. And the pass protection has been uneven all year long. It’s not that our line has been truly awful, but the offensive line is absolutely crucial to the success of any offense.

Pro No. 3: Jake Plummer’s having a bad year. Boy howdy. The Snake’s 28th in passer rating this year, has thrown more picks than Andrew Walter, and has fewer touchdown passes than Jon Kitna. Can I spin that? Nope, though the playcalling has gotten away from Plummer’s strengths. When was the last time we ran the famous bootleg? Instead, the coaches have asked him to be a risk-free, drop-back passer-which, contrary to popular opinion, he wasn’t last year-and Plummer has, predictably, failed in that role.

Con No. 3: But Plummer’s been pretty good before. Until the last two weeks, the Broncos had an outstanding record despite never scoring. Jake had bad numbers...except for the wins, though, and isn’t that the only thing that matters?

But Jake was bad eleven weeks in a row this year, right? Believe it or not, that’s not a very long time. Brian Griese was good ten weeks in a row once-so good, in fact, that the Broncos gave him a $12.6 million signing bonus after the season. How’d that turn out?

Anyway, enough beating around the bush. What do I think of the move? Yes, I’ve defended Plummer the whole year and it’s unfair to make him the fall guy. But since when has the NFL been about fairness? The Broncos aren’t going anywhere if the offense doesn’t improve, and it’s clear they needed to shake things up. I can’t wait to see what happens Sunday.

Pro football on Sunday night

To introduce today's topic, please welcome my Chargers season preview, courtesy of the world-renowned Hole Punch Archives:

Yes, [the Chargers have] exceeded expectations the last few seasons, but Brees provided a lot of that grit. I think San Diego will compete with Oakland for the division cellar.

Yikes. Instead the Chargers are 7-2 heading into Sunday night's game in Denver (6:15 on NBC). Here are some Fun Facts:

San Diego is 4th in the league in offense. (Denver? 19th)
San Diego is 1st in scoring, Denver is 23rd.
San Diego is 8th in defense. Denver ranks 13th.
San Diego is 11th in scoring defense. Ha, losers. Denver is still 1st.
Philip Rivers is third in the league in passer rating. Jake Plummer is not. (He's 28th.)
LaDainian Tomlinson already has 932 yards on the ground, with seven games to play. (Oh, and since I probably won't talk about the 49ers much, mad props to my man who's currently fifth in rushing.)

You get the point. Fine, one more: Rivers has thrown three picks the entire year. Plummer's had two games with three picks.

Anyway, what else needs to be said? I'm much more nervous about this game than I was a few weeks ago. San Diego has the kind of passing attack that can make a mockery of our defense. It's true, though, that the Chargers have done their best work this year against pretty bad defenses.

The Denver offense was showing signs of life, until they played Oakland last week. And then it all fell apart. I still think the Broncos will win Sunday, but I'm not sure. What do you think?

Nuggets lose K-Mart

Hey, kids! I don’t know if you’ve been paying attention to the Nuggets-I haven’t-but they just lost Kenyon Martin for the year following knee surgery.

When I saw this, it made sense-he never really got better from last year, did he? Except, oh wait...it’s his other knee. And he doesn’t even know what caused it. That’s an encouraging sign. It’s always good to lose a year and not really know why. He’ll be totally healthy next year though, right?

Good thing the Nuggets are only on the hook for sixty million dollars or so. While we’re on the topic of chronic knee injuries...the sixty million Martin is guaranteed is more than the $56 million in Terrell Davis’ biggest contract, most of which he never would have seen if he had remained healthy anyway. And Davis was a league MVP-probably the best football player in the world-while Martin is, usually, just one of the best forwards on his team. That’s why I don’t think NFL players who hold out are all that crazy or selfish, even though they’d make more than you and I do, new contract or not.

Since recent history proves that knee injuries to generously-compensated Nuggets forwards are inevitable (LaPhonso, Antonio, please not Carmelo), at least the team was smart enough not to build around this latest victim.

Martin is a starter and something of a key contributor, though. As Carmelo said in the linked article, “I don't care what nobody says, he's a big part of our team.” At least the Nuggets have a lot of power forwards in reserve. Are they any good? You tell me.

Reggie Evans: Last year’s trade deadline pickup has proven himself as a fantastic rebounder and...um...as a guy who’s good at grabbing the ball after someone misses a shot. He’s a decent defender, though he’s not much of a shot-blocker or anything, and he’s definitely a step behind a healthy Martin. Offensively...let’s not even go there, except that, in my incredibly optimistic opinion, playing him more should mean more defensive rebounds for the team, and therefore more fast-break opportunities for the skill players.

Nene: No stranger to $60 million himself, Nene could, theoretically, play up to his potential and replace Martin almost single-handedly. He’s the most likely candidate, talent-wise. Except...he’s coming off a knee injury suffered last year and has, in fact, missed the last three games with a bruised knee.

Eduardo Najera: He hustles! Isn’t that cool? I think if he played big minutes, his shortcomings would probably be exposed, though perhaps that’s unfair, considering how he's played when given minutes in the past. What I can’t tell is whether the Nuggets consider him a real option. On one hand, he’s started five of our seven games (the ones Martin hasn’t), but on the other, he’s only getting about twenty minutes a game.

Joe Smith: This guy was the No. 1 overall draft pick just eleven short years ago. He’s shown signs of his old explosiveness, managing to...appear in the last three games. That actually represents progress. I imagine his minutes will go up, but he’s pretty low on the totem pole.

So yeah, the Nuggets are totally hosed.

College football thoughts

My thoughts on the college football season...

1. Colorado is not good. I meant to live-blog a game or something, but really, what other conclusion could I have come to? There’s plenty of blame to go around-the new coach hasn’t made a lick of difference, Bernard Jackson throws more passes to the ground than to his receivers (49.7% completion rate this year), and the defense has kept things just close enough to get us beat.

By the way, how much of a grace period does a new coach get? Do we give him four or five years to get all of his kind of players on the team? Or can we expect him to, you know, do his job the first few years, too? I don’t think Dan Hawkins should be fired or anything, but I guess I expected a lot more this year.

2. BYU is back...I guess. Somehow BYU has slipped back in to its rightful place at the bottom of the Top 25 polls. I’m not the biggest fan of Alma’s mater, though I do hate Utah at least as much as I despise Nebraska.

When I was a kid, the Captain and I used to look at the AP polls on Tuesday to see where BYU should be ranked. This usually involved counting out spots in the “Also receiving votes” section and determining that the Cougars were 28th or so in the nation. Good times. They brought back the old jerseys, and now they’ve brought back the old tradition of beating up on crappy teams all year long. See? New coaches don’t have to struggle.

3. Should Louisv-I mean Rutgers-play in the title game? Last Friday on PTI, Lee Corso announced that no matter what happens this year, Rutgers wouldn’t deserve a national title game berth over a team from a real conference. Big surprise. Corso, like Billy Packer on the basketball side, is one of those college analysts who can’t stop hyping the big schools.

I’m not sure that makes him wrong, though. Rutgers’ schedule is pretty easy, and they’ve had some close calls. They’ve only played one ranked team all year (Louisville last week). Big schools play way tougher schedules! Um, right?

Maybe. Michigan, for example, has only played one ranked team so far. They still have to play Ohio State, the current No. 1 in both polls. Does that really count, though? Some people already think a Michigan-Ohio State rematch should be the national title game, regardless of who wins. Rutgers isn’t allowed to lose any games.

Most top teams have played two or three ranked squads already. Thus Rutgers’ schedule has been easier than most, but no one in college football plays a good team every week.

And Rutgers is undefeated, something only Ohio and Boise States can say. Yeah, the schedule’s easy, but it’s the best they could possibly do. Look at it this way: if you put Peyton Manning, LaDainian Tomlinson, and Brian Urlacher in Rutgers uniforms this year, they’d obviously be the best team in college football, but they’d still only be 9-0. (They’d be 9-0 since Rutgers hasn’t played Florida…right, Peyton?) My point is that we don’t know how good Rutgers can be, because they’ve passed every test so far.

My answer’s kind of a cop-out-I want to see what happens in the last few games before I say if Rutgers deserves a spot. I do think it’s too early to say they don’t deserve a spot, though.

Payback

It's a nice little coincidence. Sunday the Broncos face the Steelers, who knocked them out of last year's playoffs. Tomorrow night the Nuggets play the L.A. Clippers, who knocked them out of last year's playoffs. Friday the Avalanche host the Anaheim Mighty Ducks, who knocked them out of last year's playoffs. (All right, the part about the Avs was a complete fabrication, but you believed me, didn't you?)

Forget the Steelers game. The last thing I want to talk about right now is Denver's football team. (Seriously, what was that Sunday? I finally start to fall for the defense, and voila! Peyton Manning, for the first time ever, gets the better of it. You win some, you lose to the Colts.)

I'm not so excited about the Clippers game either, per se, but I am glad the NBA is back, especially after this week. So what has changed from when we last left the squad? (Not that much.)

New guys: The Smiths, Joe and J.R., might be Denver's most effective sibling duo since Ellis fraternals LaPhonso and Dale were alternating three-point bombs and ACL blowouts. Joe Smith, yes, is the Joe Smith. Not the founder of the Mor-you idiot, I'm talking about the former No. 1 overall pick of the Golden State Warriors.

If Joe Smith has indeed made a name for himself over the years, it's probably for the money he took under the table from the Timberwolves. That ended up costing them a bunch of first-round picks and helped the franchise squander Kevin Garnett's prime. However, he hasn't really made a name for himself, which is why I felt the need to tell you that story.

J.R. Smith is an "exciting young player" from New Orleans. (The team, not the city.) I don't know much about him, probably because I always confuse him with Josh Smith of the Hawks. (They both made names for themselves at the same slam dunk contest, give me a break.) In all seriousness J.R. should be the starter at shooting guard, and hopefully he can at least slow down the revolving door of mediocrity at the position.

The not-so-new guy: Desite some serious strife at the end of last season, power forward Kenyon Martin remains with the team.

Is he the key to the season? Not the way it's planned out...but sort of. The Nuggets should be deeper in the frontcourt with Marcus Camby, with Nene back, and with Reggie Evans here the whole season. But each of those has either health or ability questions, and it's likely the Nuggets will end up needing a solid contribution from Martin to stack up in the West this year.

The other question is his attitude. If he wants to, Martin can be quite a distraction, as he proved in last year's playoffs. I think that probably won't be an issue-after all, he's still starting when he's healthy, and he's still cashing huge checks-but he's worth keeping an eye on.

Carmelo: The Broncos' defense of basketball players, Carmelo Anthony, once again, will be asked to prove his ability in the pressure of the postseason. He is amazingly clutch in regular season games but falters a bit when everyone else dials it up. Will that continue? I'd say no, but I said no last year, and he didn't really get it done against the Clippers.

We won't know until April. But I, once again, think Carmelo will have a great year, and the Nuggets should be back in position to prove themselves in the playoffs.