We’ve all heard the hype.
No. 1 vs. No. 2. USC-Texas. The One The BCS Finally Got Right (if you can call their luck that). Tomorrow night’s Rose Bowl (8 p.m. Eastern, ABC) promises to be a matchup for the ages.
After the graduation of ballroom-dancer Matt Leinart and the certain early departure of star running back Reggie Bush, this could be the last big win of the USC dynasty. And what a run they had. But before it’s over, USC’ll put the stamp on it all with a national championship tomorrow night.
But forget the hype. It’s not gonna happen.
Wait, back up one second. USC has the aforementioned duo on offense, each of whom has won a Heisman trophy. Bush was an easy pick this year after a 513-yard day against Fresno State Nov. 19. While Leinart’s selection was more debatable, he had to do something right to take home the hardware.
Right now the Trojans are favored by a touchdown. ESPN’s been running a feature on how USC would fare against the top collegiate teams off all-time. They’re not the best team this year; they’re one of the greatest ever assembled. (Or did you forget the championship last year, the split decision after the 2003 season, and their argument for rings following ’02?) And everyone thinks the Trojans will win tomorrow.
The Trojans are so good, their backup running back, LenDale White, is not only better than anyone in the Longhorns’ backfield; if he transferred to Texas, he’d be the best back in the entire Big 12 conference.
Last but not least, Texas’ coach is still Mack Brown.
So why do I think the Longhorns will win?
1. The Longhorns have a better defense. They say defense wins championships. I don’t believe ’em-offense is just as important in my book.
But USC’s edge offensively is much slimmer than Texas’ defensive advantage. Don’t believe me? Check the numbers. USC is first in the country in offense with 587.8 yards per game. Texas gains “just” 516.9 yards per contest, which ranks third. However, thanks to superior defense and special teams, Texas actually outscores USC by a slim margin (50.9 points per game versus 50.0).
(By the way, the most surprising stat? Despite USC’s much-ballyhooed backfield, Texas actually outgains USC on the ground by about nine yards per game.)
Meanwhile, Texas has a much better shot at shutting down USC’s attack than vice versa. The yardage figures point in Texas’ direction (6th nationally vs. USC’s ranking of 40th), but it all comes down to keeping the other team out of the end zone. Texas surrenders just 14.6 points per game against USC’s 21.3. That difference of almost a touchdown is bigger than it looks, as the Longhorns’ defense has been dominant at times.
2. College football is all about upsets. Can’t think of another team that was spoken of in such historically-heavy terms?
I can. The first two teams that spring to mind when thinking of this year’s USC teams are the 2002 Miami Hurricanes and the 2003 Oklahoma Sooners.
The ’02 Hurricanes had an awesome and undefeated regular season and, like USC, the impressive recent history, having won a title the season before. (And, in shades of USC’s flimsy argument for inclusion in the Fiesta Bowl that year, Miami had been similarly excluded from the 2000 championship game before their run began.)
Miami headed into the Fiesta Bowl with a sparkling 12-0 record to play the Ohio State Buckeyes, who were 13-0 but not given a serious chance. At least not until Ohio State played a ferociously physical game (two frightening words: Willis McGahee) and pulled off the upset.
Like USC, the ’03 Sooners got the same greatest-of-all-time hype during the season. With quarterback Jason White-an overrated, underarmed QB who won a Heisman…hmmm, sounds kind of like Matt Leinart-they were shoo-ins for the title. Then they lost in the Big 12 title game to K-State. The Sooners capped off their dream season with a loss to LSU in the BCS title game…helping lead to the first championship of USC’s current run.
3. Texas has done it all on the field. If USC hadn’t won the title last year, is there any reason to think they’d be ranked ahead of Texas this year? Put it this way: Texas has been much more dominant than USC.
Let’s look at the close calls. Some say winning the close games separates the great teams from the merely good. I say great teams are so dominant, they don’t play many close games.
Both of these teams have had close calls, yet USC’s were more telling. Texas beat Ohio State by three points Sept. 10, but completely dominated the endgame. USC, meanwhile, squeaked by Notre Dame on what was probably an illegal last-second touchdown (not that I mind the Irish getting jobbed). And lost in the storyline of Bush’s huge game against Fresno State was the fact that USC won by only eight points-in other words, a one-score game. A one-score game in which one player accounted for more than five hundred yards doesn’t bode well for the victors.
Notre Dame controlled the clock against USC, but Fresno State didn’t do anything special-in fact, the numbers say the Trojans should have won by about a million points. But they didn’t. Why not? Because USC’s not as good as everyone thinks.
Put it down: despite my earlier predictions, the Texas Longhorns will become your national champions tomorrow night.
No. 1 vs. No. 2. USC-Texas. The One The BCS Finally Got Right (if you can call their luck that). Tomorrow night’s Rose Bowl (8 p.m. Eastern, ABC) promises to be a matchup for the ages.
After the graduation of ballroom-dancer Matt Leinart and the certain early departure of star running back Reggie Bush, this could be the last big win of the USC dynasty. And what a run they had. But before it’s over, USC’ll put the stamp on it all with a national championship tomorrow night.
But forget the hype. It’s not gonna happen.
Wait, back up one second. USC has the aforementioned duo on offense, each of whom has won a Heisman trophy. Bush was an easy pick this year after a 513-yard day against Fresno State Nov. 19. While Leinart’s selection was more debatable, he had to do something right to take home the hardware.
Right now the Trojans are favored by a touchdown. ESPN’s been running a feature on how USC would fare against the top collegiate teams off all-time. They’re not the best team this year; they’re one of the greatest ever assembled. (Or did you forget the championship last year, the split decision after the 2003 season, and their argument for rings following ’02?) And everyone thinks the Trojans will win tomorrow.
The Trojans are so good, their backup running back, LenDale White, is not only better than anyone in the Longhorns’ backfield; if he transferred to Texas, he’d be the best back in the entire Big 12 conference.
Last but not least, Texas’ coach is still Mack Brown.
So why do I think the Longhorns will win?
1. The Longhorns have a better defense. They say defense wins championships. I don’t believe ’em-offense is just as important in my book.
But USC’s edge offensively is much slimmer than Texas’ defensive advantage. Don’t believe me? Check the numbers. USC is first in the country in offense with 587.8 yards per game. Texas gains “just” 516.9 yards per contest, which ranks third. However, thanks to superior defense and special teams, Texas actually outscores USC by a slim margin (50.9 points per game versus 50.0).
(By the way, the most surprising stat? Despite USC’s much-ballyhooed backfield, Texas actually outgains USC on the ground by about nine yards per game.)
Meanwhile, Texas has a much better shot at shutting down USC’s attack than vice versa. The yardage figures point in Texas’ direction (6th nationally vs. USC’s ranking of 40th), but it all comes down to keeping the other team out of the end zone. Texas surrenders just 14.6 points per game against USC’s 21.3. That difference of almost a touchdown is bigger than it looks, as the Longhorns’ defense has been dominant at times.
2. College football is all about upsets. Can’t think of another team that was spoken of in such historically-heavy terms?
I can. The first two teams that spring to mind when thinking of this year’s USC teams are the 2002 Miami Hurricanes and the 2003 Oklahoma Sooners.
The ’02 Hurricanes had an awesome and undefeated regular season and, like USC, the impressive recent history, having won a title the season before. (And, in shades of USC’s flimsy argument for inclusion in the Fiesta Bowl that year, Miami had been similarly excluded from the 2000 championship game before their run began.)
Miami headed into the Fiesta Bowl with a sparkling 12-0 record to play the Ohio State Buckeyes, who were 13-0 but not given a serious chance. At least not until Ohio State played a ferociously physical game (two frightening words: Willis McGahee) and pulled off the upset.
Like USC, the ’03 Sooners got the same greatest-of-all-time hype during the season. With quarterback Jason White-an overrated, underarmed QB who won a Heisman…hmmm, sounds kind of like Matt Leinart-they were shoo-ins for the title. Then they lost in the Big 12 title game to K-State. The Sooners capped off their dream season with a loss to LSU in the BCS title game…helping lead to the first championship of USC’s current run.
3. Texas has done it all on the field. If USC hadn’t won the title last year, is there any reason to think they’d be ranked ahead of Texas this year? Put it this way: Texas has been much more dominant than USC.
Let’s look at the close calls. Some say winning the close games separates the great teams from the merely good. I say great teams are so dominant, they don’t play many close games.
Both of these teams have had close calls, yet USC’s were more telling. Texas beat Ohio State by three points Sept. 10, but completely dominated the endgame. USC, meanwhile, squeaked by Notre Dame on what was probably an illegal last-second touchdown (not that I mind the Irish getting jobbed). And lost in the storyline of Bush’s huge game against Fresno State was the fact that USC won by only eight points-in other words, a one-score game. A one-score game in which one player accounted for more than five hundred yards doesn’t bode well for the victors.
Notre Dame controlled the clock against USC, but Fresno State didn’t do anything special-in fact, the numbers say the Trojans should have won by about a million points. But they didn’t. Why not? Because USC’s not as good as everyone thinks.
Put it down: despite my earlier predictions, the Texas Longhorns will become your national champions tomorrow night.
Comments
I think the only real reason Texas' schedule looks weaker than USC's is that Texas more dominant than USC. Of course your schedule looks harder if you're having a tougher time sticking with the good teams.
Texas has played three ranked teams this year going into their bowl. That's fewer than USC's 5 this year, but...
In their last two seasons, USC played a combined total of three ranked teams before their bowls (1 in 2003 and 2 in 2004). And they won at least a share of the championship both times.
So to say Texas' schedule is so easy that they won't be able to win a title is absurd. I don't think being tested in the regular season is all that important-if anything, it just might hurt you.
i'm pulling for the long horns too. for sure. i can't wait to see the boys in the burnt orange wipe the smug grins of entitlement off the univeristy of spoiled children.
this has nothing to do with the fact that i'm applying for a program at ucla, i assure you.
i would like to remind you mike of one close victory that got overlooked. the big 12 championship...
that 70-3 is really deceptive. we blanked them in the fourth quarter... when texas pulled out v. young and put the kid in a wheel chair in at qb... we really held strong.
the reason i'm optimistic about texas has been covered by both of you, texas has the tougher schedule, and has the stronger defense.
they both have a potent offense, but i think usc is really weak when it comes to stopping the horns.
HOOK EM HORNS!!
Cap: Texas 33, U.S. of C. 27
my original prediction was 31-22. i went to a big gathering where they were showing the game at an indie theatre. i went with three of my roomies, all who were rooting for USC.
it was a sweet victory. and i can say with confidence the best college football game i've ever watched, on tv.
the best game i ever watched live was the 62-36 ass-clubbing we gave big red at folsom. one of the greatest moments of my life. not just beating your rival, but beating them when they are #1, damn that's sweet.
ok, so lets turn the talk over to mr. vince young.
do you see him making the kind of contribution in the pros that he does in college? he sure is a nifty runner, and a very adroit passer. it seems to me though that he often relies on his strength to evade the first tackle. did you notice that when those usc db's would rush in he just stood there, knowing that he could essentially muscle away from them?
while such physical strengths are admirable, they are not quite re-creatable in the nfl, nor will he be encouraged to be as flighty...
do you see him becoming another vick?
i thought leinhart looked really solid, i think he's got great touch/leadership and will make a solid pro qb.
bush, not a factor at all really. if i'm a pro scout, i think l. white is the the real deal, ready to make an impact immediately. that guy is a horse.
Young completed a lot of passes last night, but he made two throws across his body across the field-one with good touch that wasn't so bad, and one that had no business falling incomplete. Should have been a huge pick. The passes he did complete, well, they were all right across the middle, and NFL defenses smother guys who can't spread it out more (look at Brian Griese).
Having said that, he's incredibly mobile and tough, and the fact that he's improved so much as a passer in college gives me hope. And the fact that he was so absurdly clutch last night helps a ton, too.
Young especially will be told to rein in his runs in the pros because he likes to go right to the heart of the defense so often. I say leave him alone and let him do his thing, though I think he'll need a bit of experience before he produces huge results. (And I think Vick's a good player, though I don't necessarily like him or his brother as people.)
As for Leinart, I have real questions about his arm strength. Not everyone has to be Favre, of course, but he lobbed that pass down the sideline on the way to USC's first touchdown that nearly got his man decapitated.
And he's not very mobile. Which isn't a big deal either, but when I think of immobile quarterbacks, I think of Peyton Manning, who obviously has a much stronger arm. And when I think of somewhat weaker-armed quarterbacks, I think of like Jeff Garcia, who can run better. In any event while Leinart could certainly become a productive pro, I don't have enough faith in him to take him at the very top of the draft or anything-I'd pick Vince ahead of him.
I've always compared Leinart to Ken Dorsey, though the Testaverde comparisons make a lot of sense. I think he will get a lot of chances in the pros, though young quarterbacks rarely emerge as leaders unless they back it up on the field right away, which I don't see Leinart doing.
Another thing that worries me is that Leinart has never seemed very accurate to me, though he completes a ton of passes so maybe I have just seen him on bad days. There's not any one thing about Leinart that really scares me off, just the combination of a lot of things.
I think Bush and White should both make spectacular pros. Bush reminds me a lot of a young Marshall Faulk...hopefully without the attendant attitude problems...but just because he wasn't the difference last night doesn't mean he won't be many nights in the pros. White is totally awesome and I hope the NFL gives him the dap he deserves for such an outstanding career.
I would first like to point out my comment on September 10, 2005 "[Texas] They set for a National Championship."
Secondly, I would like to point out how ineffective the 'best' player in college football was. (although I think it was because Carroll seemed to give up on Reggie).
Third, Vince is clutch. Kansas, Michigan, Ohio State, and So. Cal. Big plays won the game in the last minute.
Finally, I was annoyed with the officiating and bad plays (5 or so fumbles). But I was glad to find out at the end the USC is still the better team because Matt Leinart told me (I hope he tanks in the NFL for that comment)
I look back at the second-to-last drive by USC and wonder if Norm Chow would have made a difference... I can't believe that USC never let Bush touch the ball in that sequence and that they opted for a pass on 2nd down.
I agree with Dave. While i remain unimpressed by Bush's performance, i find it odd that USC didn't feed him the ball more in the second half.
I'm not sure that I would have given Bush the ball that many more times. On the late fourth-and-two at midfield, it was obviously going to be a run up the middle by LenDale-and I wasn't that sure Texas was going to stop it. Yes, it was really conservative, and I guess it's odd that the Heisman trophy winner was on the sidelines, but LenDale White in short yardage is a pretty good bet.
The officiating was abysmal.
Matt Leinart's a chump for his comment, and I wouldn't be surprised if he tanks in the NFL. In any event, he won't have a career worthy of a top-three pick.