Hole Punch Sports

Leftover thoughts from the conference championship games: The key to the AFC game was giving up that second TD right before halftime. Okay, the real key was the unstoppable Ben Roethlisberger, but in terms of momentum, that was what the Phantom calls the point of no return. The game got off to a tough start for Denver, but a 17-3 or 20-3 halftime lead is far from insurmountable-and had the Broncos capitalized on any of their opportunities, we could be talking about their awesome comeback right now. Broncos history. The Broncos went into the game with six wins all-time in seven AFC Championship appearances (and the one loss came when Gary Kubiak replaced Elway because of injury-or, in other words, you can blame that AFC title game loss on Kubiak, too!). While that’s a nice stat, there’s no reason to think it would have anything to do with our chances yesterday. What is indisputable, of course, is the curse of the 13-3 record, which has never been good for the Broncos. Most famously, ...

Denver's defense has come up with all kinds of firsts the last few years. They were the force behind Tom Brady's first playoff defeat as a pro (I guess that's redundant-he couldn't exactly have lost a playoff game in college, eh?). Just as surely, they were the biggest reason we became the first team to let Peyton Manning win a playoff game. And today, they refused to stand between Ben Roethlisberger and his first Super Bowl. Take away the uniforms and you would have thought Denver was the team playing its first game at altitude this year, not Pittsburgh. (Take away the uniforms and I never watch football again, but that's a different story.) Instead, in the franchise's first AFC Championship appearance since John Elway retired, the defense let the Steelers control the tempo and enforce their will on the game. In the first quarter, the Broncos let the Steelers on the board first with a field goal. That wasn't crippling, but when the Steelers added a touchdow...

Sunday’s AFC Championship Game (1 p.m. Mountain, CBS) between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Denver Broncos could, at first glance, hardly feature more similar squads. And painted with broad strokes (both focus on running and defense) or small (both have offensive stars who weren’t drafted), the teams have a lot in common. And it’s not just styles, it’s statistics. Denver scored 24.7 points per game this year to Pittsburgh’s 24.3, and both allowed 16.1 points per contest. Yet the game favors Denver. Why? 1. Offensive styles and matchups. You’re forgiven for thinking both teams run, run, and then run again. The Steelers surely run, but the runs are far more frequent and effective in the second half of games. It’s their passing game that helps build early leads. Fortunately for the Broncos, their defensive strength is against the pass, despite deceiving defensive rankings. The Broncos’ reputation as a run-focused squad is well-earned and accurate. While Pittsburgh’s defense is effective ag...

Fabulous. Most years at least one conference championship winner is blatantly obvious, but as soon as I start trying to predict winners with the whole world as my witness, I honestly think that both games could go either way. I feel that way especially about Sunday’s NFC Championship game, featuring the Carolina Panthers at the Seattle Seahawks (4:30 Mountain, FOX). Depending on how you look at it, both teams look better than their opponents. You think momentum is critical? The Panthers won by a smaller margin last week than Seattle, yet were more in control of their game against a better team and on the road. Despite surrendering 21 points to Chicago's pathetic offense, Carolina basically kept the Bears at arm’s length and made mincemeat of the NFL’s No. 1 scoring defense. The Seahawks, meanwhile, took a while to get going in eking out a win over the Redskins. Health? Star Seattle running back Shaun Alexander is returning from a concussion, and who knows how he’ll fare? But then a...

In preparation for my upcoming breakdowns of Sunday’s conference championship games, I’ve been looking at a bunch of statistics and studying each teams. I thought it might be interesting to talk about what these teams have in common. (And what the losing teams don’t.) While some of these statistics could be coincidences or one-year flukes, it might help you understand what’s important for winning teams to focus on. 1. They run. Three of the four remaining playoff teams (Seattle, Denver and Pittsburgh) rank in the top five among the league’s rushing offenses. That’s not too shocking, since those rankings are based on total yardage and good teams tend to run the ball a lot to kill the clock at the end of victories (with the obvious exception of the Colts). But those teams don’t just run a lot, they run well-Seattle and Denver’s per-carry averages both round to 4.7, and Pittsburgh picks up 4.0 per rush. Carolina actually ranked 19th in rushing and 29th in average (3.4) in the regular sea...

Washington at Seattle: The player who impressed me the most in Saturday’s game was Seattle quarterback Matt Hasselbeck. He helped the ’Hawks overcome the loss of Shaun Alexander, who’d gotten off to a pretty bad start anyway (six carries for nine yards). I have to agree with those who've said the quarterback is Seattle’s real MVP. I’d be hearing whispers about Hasselbeck’s greatness for years, then watched him fall flat in the biggest games. But Saturday, when his team needed him the most, he threw with impressive touch and accuracy all over the field, and halfback back-up Maurice Morris gave Seattle the absolute bare minimum they needed. As for the Redskins, they could be solid next year if they find a real quarterback, which is a pretty big piece of the puzzle to be missing. Brunell had solid numbers, but against a defense keyed on the run, he couldn’t make any big plays. It really seems like he’s hanging on by a thread at this point, at least against the tougher defenses (he wa...

For this weekend’s NFL playoff games, I have noticed that I’ve only picked teams that I actually plan on rooting for. As every Hole Punch Sports reader surely knows, I have no intention of ever supporting Peyton Manning. Yet the Colts were nearly unstoppable this season, and I also love being right. Nevertheless, the early game Sunday between the 11-5 Pittsburgh Steelers and 14-2 Indianapolis Colts (11 a.m. Mountain, CBS) features two teams that are more similar than you think. Let us begin with the coaches. Colts coach Tony Dungy and Steelers coach Bill Cowher are both defensive-minded leaders considered among the league’s best. And both are still considered a step below the real elite who have won Super Bowls. Each has won his share of playoff contests, though neither has pulled off any memorable upsets or moments. Next, the starting quarterbacks. Unlike Colts record-setting thrower Peyton Manning, Roethlisberger’s 40-yard dash is not best measured with a calendar. But both are big p...

I can’t believe what I write sometimes. Recently on Hole Punch Sports, I said that, “the playoff road looks very favorable for the Broncos.” However, my AFC predictions of Pittsburgh and New England victories last weekend were spot-on. So things went exactly like I said they would, but Denver is facing its toughest possible opponent for this playoff round…which isn’t “very favorable”. Even though the Broncos stand as three-point favorites, a victory for them would feel like an upset. Why? I’m not really sure, but I think I’d call it “the Patriots won the last two Super Bowls.” As is well-documented, quarterback Tom Brady and head coach Bill Belichick have never lost a playoff game together. Another well-known fact is that this year’s 10-6 mark was dragged down by numerous injuries all over the field. The Patriots are in much better shape heading into Saturday’s game (6 p.m. Mountain, CBS). Why can the Broncos hope to win? 1. Home-field advantage. Broncos coach Mike Shanahan has not wo...

Sunday (2:30 Mountain on FOX), the Carolina Panthers and Chicago Bears will face off for the right to lose to Seattle in the NFC Championship game. (Maybe.) Last I checked, the Bears are three-point favorites over the Panthers. Why is that? I have no idea. Both teams sport identical 11-5 regular season records. Chicago is at home and beat the Panthers 13-3 Nov. 20. But the Panthers, in my mind, have been much better than the Bears. I’ll take the upset here ( Panthers to win) and then I’m going to tell you why… 1. Chicago has absolutely no offense. Not to get off-topic here, but the Detroit Lions were really bad this year, weren’t they? Coach got fired, GM ought to get fired…they really didn’t put it together, especially on offense, where Joey Harrington is on the verge of becoming a legendary bust. Against the Bears’ vaunted defense, the Lions racked up nineteen points this year…that’s 19 points in two full games, plus an overtime. (And in typical Lions fashion, that overtime ended wh...

This week's playoff previews starts with the weekend's first game, the Washington Redskins at the Seattle Seahawks (2:30 pm Mountain-not sure why I used Eastern last time, FOX). On paper this may not look like much of a matchup. The Redskins were 10-6 and couldn't even beat out the New York Giants for the division title. The Seahwaks went 13-3, have a real quarterback, and ran away with the NFC. I tend to agree with paper on this one. However for this preview I will employ the completely contradictory tone and tell you why each team could win Saturday: Why Washington Will Win: 1. Better coaching. Though there are scores of coaches who can pile up regular season victories, only the elite few win consistently in the postseason. Look at the last five coaches to win Super Bowls: Bill Belichick, Jon Gruden, Brian Billick, Dick Vermeil, and Mike Shanahan. Not a weak link in the bunch. Though Mike Holmgren and Joe Gibbs have each won a Super Bowl themselves (three, in Gibbs’ case...

It's become something of a tradition here at Hole Punch Sports to predict champions before the postseason begins. (Or, in the case of a sport like, say, college football, which apparently needs only a one-game postseason to determine its champion, right before that one game.) Anyway, the NFL playoff games are starting in a few hours and I haven't guessed my Super Bowl winner yet. A couple reasons for this: first, I took the last two days off of work, so I didn't have as much time to write (heh heh). And second, I have no idea what's going to happen. Last year was obvious, at least from my perspective: despite Pittsburgh's 15-1 mark, Peyton's 49 touchdown passes, and the fact that the NFC managed to field six playoff teams, it was abundantly clear that New England was going to win the Super Bowl. This year, there's no such overwhelming favorite. Except Indy. Which I refuse to even entertain. You see, Indianapolis is the exact same team it's been the last ...

We’ve all heard the hype. No. 1 vs. No. 2. USC-Texas. The One The BCS Finally Got Right (if you can call their luck that). Tomorrow night’s Rose Bowl (8 p.m. Eastern, ABC) promises to be a matchup for the ages. After the graduation of ballroom-dancer Matt Leinart and the certain early departure of star running back Reggie Bush, this could be the last big win of the USC dynasty. And what a run they had. But before it’s over, USC’ll put the stamp on it all with a national championship tomorrow night. But forget the hype. It’s not gonna happen. Wait, back up one second. USC has the aforementioned duo on offense, each of whom has won a Heisman trophy. Bush was an easy pick this year after a 513-yard day against Fresno State Nov. 19. While Leinart’s selection was more debatable, he had to do something right to take home the hardware. Right now the Trojans are favored by a touchdown. ESPN’s been running a feature on how USC would fare against the top collegiate teams off all-time. They’re no...